Tottenham Hotspur v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 9
On target
2 – 1
Shots in box
15 – 7
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
1.30 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-0.67 – -0.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Tottenham Hotspur win
34.0%
Draw
31.4%
Everton win
34.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.20–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.45–1.25 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Tottenham Hotspur 1.67 xGEverton 0.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Tottenham Hotspur attacking right
Everton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 5' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Conor Gallagher | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Micky van de Ven | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Iyenoma Destiny Udogie | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | João Palhinha |
| 9' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Kevin Danso | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 9' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Kevin Danso | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | João Palhinha |
| 13' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 21' |
 Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 31' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 32' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | James Garner |
| 34' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Kevin Danso | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 39' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 42' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Mathys Tel |
| 42' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.55 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 44' |
Everton |
James Garner | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Jake O'Brien |
| 47' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Djed Spence | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Conor Gallagher |
| 48' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 49' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Kevin Danso | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Richarlison |
| 59' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Randal Kolo Muani | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pape Sarr |
| 92' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 95' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Seamus Coleman |
| 98' |
Everton |
Tyrique George | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vitalii Mykolenko |
| 99' |
Everton |
James Tarkowski | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | James Garner |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iliman Ndiaye AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| James Garner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall AML | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Thierno Barry FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Tim Iroegbunam DMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jake O'Brien DR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Merlin Röhl AMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrique George Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Harrison Armstrong Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Carlos Alcaraz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Beto Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Seamus Coleman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Palhinha DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.10 | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| Kevin Danso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| Djed Spence AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Antonín Kinsky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Conor Gallagher AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mathys Tel AML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.53 | 0.14 |
| Richarlison FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Randal Kolo Muani Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pape Sarr Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Archie Gray Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Maddison Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Radu Dragusin Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |