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Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 2 December 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Tottenham Hotspur win
36.6%
model 35.9%
Draw
26.6%
model 25.4%
Fulham win
36.8%
model 38.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (648 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.0%
  2. 0-1 8.8%
  3. 1-2 8.5%
  4. 1-0 8.4%
  5. 2-1 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.552.5% Under 2.547.5%
BTTS yes56.3% BTTS no43.7%
Tottenham Hotspur 1+74.2% Tottenham Hotspur 2+39.3%
Fulham 1+75.8% Fulham 2+41.5%

Expected goals 1.36 – 1.42. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
93/100
Data quality
90/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Fulham clean sheet in 2nd half
Away clean sheet 2HT · usually 42%
54.8% fair odds 1.82
moderate signal · 722 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Fulham (0:2)
Handicap 0:2 · usually 76%
83.7% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 504 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Fulham have created 1.65 xG a match over their last five while Tottenham Hotspur have allowed 1.44.
  • Away from home Fulham average 1.18 xG a match.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Fulham have an estimated 36.8% win probability, against 36.6% for Tottenham Hotspur and 26.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.36 for Tottenham Hotspur and 1.42 for Fulham.

Why Tottenham Hotspur

Tottenham Hotspur have created 1.39 xG a match over their last five while Fulham have allowed 1.46. At home Tottenham Hotspur average 1.19 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.6%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.36 to 1.42. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Fulham can win

Fulham have created 1.65 xG a match over their last five while Tottenham Hotspur have allowed 1.44. Away from home Fulham average 1.18 xG a match.

Key players

Tottenham Hotspur's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Richarlison (0.37), Dominic Solanke (0.31), Sávio (0.31). Fulham's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Gonzalo García (0.56), Raúl Jiménez (0.36), Alex Iwobi (0.30).

Availability

2 of Tottenham Hotspur's top three contributors did not start their last match. 45% of Tottenham Hotspur's last eleven are new to the club this window. 1 of Fulham's top three contributors did not start their last match. Fulham had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.11 expected goal involvements a match. 27% of Fulham's last eleven are new to the club this window. Reported unavailable for Fulham: Ryan Sessegnon (suspended).

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Tottenham Hotspur: 60% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.42 xG a match from set pieces. Fulham: 56% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-22 14:54 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-22 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Fulham are the model's most likely outcome at 36.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.0%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

DLWLLDDLDW last 10 scored 9 from 13.9 xG conceded 13 from 14.4 xG

Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDWLLLDDLW last 10 scored 10 from 16.5 xG conceded 12 from 14.6 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.36–1.42 0% 0% 0%
dc-goals 1.22–1.21 1-1 14% 44% 51%
dc-xg 1.37–1.37 1-1 12% 52% 56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to win 44.0% 43.0% 43.0% 1.00× 2.33
Fulham to win 30.5% 30.4% 32.3% 0.94× 3.29
Draw 25.5% 27.9% 24.8% 1.13× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur & not both score 23.3% 21.8% 20.1% 1.08× 4.58
Tottenham Hotspur & both teams score 20.7% 21.8% 22.9% 0.95× 4.59
Draw & both teams score 18.8% 18.0% 19.9% 0.90× 5.57
Fulham & not both score 15.7% 18.0% 17.1% 1.05× 5.57
Fulham & both teams score 14.8% 13.3% 15.3% 0.87× 7.53
Draw & not both score 6.7% 8.3% 5.0% 1.68× 12.01
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur & over 1.5 33.9% 30.8% 36.6% 0.84× 3.25
Tottenham Hotspur & under 3.5 30.4% 30.8% 26.6% 1.16× 3.25
Tottenham Hotspur & over 2.5 26.4% 26.1% 30.3% 0.86× 3.84
Fulham & over 1.5 22.4% 21.6% 25.3% 0.85× 4.63
Fulham & under 3.5 22.2% 21.6% 21.9% 0.99× 4.63
Draw & over 1.5 18.8% 18.0% 19.9% 0.90× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 18.8% 18.0% 16.3% 1.11× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.8% 18.0% 16.3% 1.11× 5.56
Tottenham Hotspur & under 2.5 17.6% 18.0% 12.8% 1.41× 5.56
Fulham & over 2.5 17.5% 18.0% 19.8% 0.91× 5.56
Tottenham Hotspur & over 3.5 13.6% 12.8% 16.5% 0.78× 7.79
Fulham & under 2.5 13.0% 12.8% 12.6% 1.02× 7.79
Tottenham Hotspur & under 1.5 10.1% 12.8% 6.4% 1.99× 7.79
Fulham & under 1.5 8.1% 7.9% 7.1% 1.12× 12.63
Fulham & over 3.5 8.3% 7.9% 10.6% 0.75× 12.63
Draw & under 1.5 6.7% 7.9% 5.0% 1.60× 12.63
Draw & over 2.5 6.7% 7.9% 8.6% 0.92× 12.63
Draw & over 3.5 6.7% 7.9% 8.6% 0.92× 12.63
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (1UP) 59.7% 58.2% 62.0% 0.94× 1.72
Fulham (1UP) 47.9% 44.0% 51.5% 0.85× 2.27
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (2UP) 44.0% 47.2% 44.7% 1.06× 2.12
Fulham (2UP) 30.5% 30.3% 34.5% 0.88× 3.30
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 36.0% 36.1% 31.1% 1.16× 2.77
Tottenham Hotspur to win 2nd half 33.1% 34.3% 36.2% 0.95× 2.91
Fulham to win 2nd half 30.9% 34.3% 32.8% 1.05× 2.92
2nd half away goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham under 1.5 in 2nd half 82.5% 84.3% 79.9% 1.06× 1.19
Fulham over 0.5 in 2nd half 53.0% 52.6% 57.8% 0.91× 1.90
Fulham under 0.5 in 2nd half 47.0% 47.4% 42.2% 1.12× 2.11
Fulham over 1.5 in 2nd half 17.5% 15.7% 20.1% 0.78× 6.39
2nd half home goals O/U 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur under 1.5 in 2nd half 81.1% 82.4% 75.2% 1.10× 1.21
Tottenham Hotspur over 0.5 in 2nd half 54.7% 55.2% 58.3% 0.95× 1.81
Tottenham Hotspur under 0.5 in 2nd half 45.3% 44.8% 41.7% 1.07× 2.23
Tottenham Hotspur over 1.5 in 2nd half 18.9% 17.6% 24.8% 0.71× 5.68
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham (+2.5) 91.5% 92.1% 89.1% 1.03× 1.09
Fulham (+1.5) 78.3% 78.5% 76.0% 1.03× 1.27
Tottenham Hotspur (+0.5) 69.5% 68.7% 67.7% 1.02× 1.46
Fulham (+0.5) 56.0% 57.0% 57.0% 1.00× 1.75
Tottenham Hotspur (-0.5) 44.0% 43.0% 43.0% 1.00× 2.33
Fulham (-0.5) 30.5% 31.3% 32.3% 0.97× 3.19
Tottenham Hotspur (-1.5) 21.7% 21.5% 24.0% 0.90× 4.65
Tottenham Hotspur (-2.5) 8.5% 7.9% 10.9% 0.72× 12.67
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham to concede 77.6% 78.8% 78.1% 1.01× 1.27
Fulham clean sheet 22.4% 21.2% 21.9% 0.97× 4.71
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham to concede in 1st half 50.5% 50.5% 51.2% 0.99× 1.98
Fulham clean sheet in 1st half 49.5% 49.5% 48.8% 1.01× 2.02
Away clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham to concede in 2nd half 54.7% 55.0% 58.3% 0.94× 1.82
Fulham clean sheet in 2nd half 45.3% 45.0% 41.7% 1.08× 2.22
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham under 6.5 corners 78.6% 76.0% — — 1.32
Fulham over 2.5 corners 77.7% 76.0% — — 1.32
Fulham under 5.5 corners 67.6% 67.6% — — 1.48
Fulham over 3.5 corners 62.1% 61.8% — — 1.62
Fulham under 4.5 corners 53.7% 53.1% — — 1.89
Fulham over 4.5 corners 46.3% 46.9% — — 2.13
Fulham under 3.5 corners 37.9% 38.2% — — 2.62
Fulham over 5.5 corners 32.4% 32.4% — — 3.09
Fulham under 2.5 corners 22.3% 24.0% — — 4.17
Fulham over 6.5 corners 21.4% 24.0% — — 4.17
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham under 3.5 goals 96.6% 97.5% 94.6% 1.03× 1.03
Fulham under 2.5 goals 87.9% 87.8% 85.1% 1.03× 1.14
Fulham over 0.5 goals 69.9% 68.0% 75.0% 0.91× 1.47
Fulham under 1.5 goals 66.2% 68.0% 60.6% 1.12× 1.47
Fulham over 1.5 goals 33.8% 32.0% 39.4% 0.81× 3.12
Fulham under 0.5 goals 30.1% 32.0% 25.0% 1.28× 3.13
Fulham over 2.5 goals 12.1% 12.2% 14.9% 0.82× 8.20
Fulham over 3.5 goals 3.4% 2.5% 5.4% 0.47× 39.86
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham under 1.5 in 1st half 92.5% 93.9% 89.3% 1.05× 1.07
Fulham under 0.5 in 1st half 64.0% 63.7% 59.7% 1.07× 1.57
Fulham over 0.5 in 1st half 36.0% 36.3% 40.3% 0.90× 2.75
Fulham over 1.5 in 1st half 7.5% 6.1% 10.7% 0.57× 16.39
Away highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham scores equally in both 41.1% 43.4% 37.5% 1.16× 2.31
Fulham scores more in 2nd half 39.2% 37.4% 40.8% 0.92× 2.68
Fulham scores more in 1st half 19.7% 18.2% 21.7% 0.84× 5.51
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (away no bet) 63.3% 61.9% 63.5% 0.98× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 36.7% 38.1% 36.5% 1.04× 2.63
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham even goals 54.5% 52.6% 53.5% 0.98× 1.90
Fulham odd goals 45.5% 47.4% 46.5% 1.02× 2.11
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 85.4% 87.8% 80.0% 1.10× 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 14.6% 12.2% 20.0% 0.61× 8.21
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 63.1% 57.8% 70.1% 0.82× 1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals 36.9% 42.2% 29.9% 1.41× 2.37
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 55.1% 55.1% 61.6% 0.89× 1.82
Tottenham Hotspur to score 2+ in a row 35.8% 36.5% 39.2% 0.93× 2.74
Fulham to score 2+ in a row 25.4% 25.2% 29.7% 0.85× 3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row 19.1% 16.3% 26.1% 0.63× 6.14
Tottenham Hotspur to score 3+ in a row 12.4% 12.0% 16.4% 0.73× 8.30
Fulham to score 3+ in a row 7.0% 5.6% 10.1% 0.55× 17.99
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur corners (+3.5) 89.8% 84.5% — — 1.18
Tottenham Hotspur corners (+2.5) 84.6% 79.8% — — 1.25
Tottenham Hotspur corners (+1.5) 77.7% 74.8% — — 1.34
Fulham corners (+3.5) 69.3% 65.9% — — 1.52
Fulham corners (+2.5) 60.2% 61.8% — — 1.62
Fulham corners (+1.5) 50.2% 52.4% — — 1.91
Tottenham Hotspur corners (-1.5) 49.8% 47.6% — — 2.10
Tottenham Hotspur corners (-2.5) 39.8% 38.2% — — 2.62
Tottenham Hotspur corners (-3.5) 30.7% 34.1% — — 2.93
Fulham corners (-1.5) 22.3% 25.2% — — 3.97
Fulham corners (-2.5) 15.4% 20.2% — — 4.94
Fulham corners (-3.5) 10.2% 15.5% — — 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 39.7% 34.1% — — 2.94
0-8 corners 31.4% 33.2% — — 3.01
9-11 corners 28.9% 31.2% — — 3.21
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 77.6% 76.6% — — 1.31
Over 8.5 corners 68.6% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 12.5 corners 68.8% 67.8% — — 1.48
Under 11.5 corners 60.3% 63.2% — — 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 58.9% 57.9% — — 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 50.9% 53.2% — — 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 49.1% 46.8% — — 2.14
Under 9.5 corners 41.1% 42.1% — — 2.37
Over 11.5 corners 39.7% 36.8% — — 2.72
Under 8.5 corners 31.4% 32.2% — — 3.11
Over 12.5 corners 31.2% 32.2% — — 3.11
Under 7.5 corners 22.4% 23.4% — — 4.27
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.1% — — 2.00
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% — — 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.1% 11.5% 11.4% 1.01× 8.72
1-0 10.1% 11.5% 6.4% 1.78× 8.73
2-1 9.1% 7.4% 8.9% 0.83× 13.50
0-0 6.7% 7.4% 5.0% 1.50× 13.51
0-1 8.1% 7.4% 7.1% 1.04× 13.50
1-2 7.3% 7.4% 6.8% 1.08× 13.51
2-0 7.5% 7.4% 6.4% 1.15× 13.50
2-2 5.4% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.51
0-2 4.9% 1.7% 5.6% 0.31× 58.29
0-3 2.0% 1.7% 2.6% 0.67× 58.31
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.60× 58.32
1-3 2.9% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.30
1-4 0.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.22× 58.31
2-3 2.2% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.31
2-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.7% 2.60× 58.32
3-0 3.8% 1.7% 5.0% 0.34× 58.30
3-1 4.5% 1.7% 5.4% 0.32× 58.29
3-2 2.7% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 58.30
3-3 1.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.31× 58.31
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 3.46× 58.32
4-0 1.4% 1.7% 1.3% 1.30× 58.31
4-1 1.7% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 58.31
4-2 1.0% 1.7% 1.3% 1.30× 58.31
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.89× 58.32
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.20× 58.32
Any other score 2.6% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 58.30
DNB 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (2nd half DNB) 51.7% 52.7% 52.5% 1.00× 1.90
Fulham (2nd half DNB) 48.3% 47.3% 47.5% 1.00× 2.12
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur leading at HT (DNB) 64.3% 65.9% 59.8% 1.10× 1.52
Fulham leading at HT (DNB) 35.7% 34.1% 40.2% 0.85× 2.93
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur or Fulham (12) 74.5% 72.1% 75.2% 0.96× 1.39
Tottenham Hotspur or draw (1X) 69.5% 69.6% 67.7% 1.03× 1.44
Fulham or draw (X2) 56.0% 57.0% 57.0% 1.00× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur or draw at HT 79.4% 79.2% 75.7% 1.05× 1.26
Fulham or draw at HT 63.0% 61.6% 63.9% 0.96× 1.62
Tottenham Hotspur or Fulham at HT 57.6% 57.1% 60.2% 0.95× 1.75
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur or draw (1UP) 69.5% 76.4% 74.3% 1.03× 1.31
Fulham or draw (1UP) 56.0% 62.9% 65.3% 0.96× 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur or draw in 2nd half 69.1% 65.7% 67.2% 0.98× 1.52
Fulham or draw in 2nd half 66.9% 65.7% 63.8% 1.03× 1.52
Tottenham Hotspur or Fulham in 2nd half 64.0% 63.9% 68.9% 0.93× 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 63.2% 61.5% 57.1% 1.08× 1.63
Neither half drawn 36.8% 38.5% 42.9% 0.90× 2.59
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (DNB) 59.1% 58.1% 57.1% 1.02× 1.72
Fulham (DNB) 40.9% 41.9% 42.9% 0.98× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to score first 51.7% 53.3% 51.8% 1.03× 1.88
Fulham to score first 41.6% 41.6% 43.3% 0.96× 2.40
No goal scored 6.7% 7.4% 5.0% 1.50× 13.45
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 54.3% 51.3% 58.0% 0.88× 1.95
Not both teams to score 45.7% 48.7% 42.0% 1.16× 2.05
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 42.2% 41.6% 46.7% 0.89× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 37.3% 38.4% 30.2% 1.27× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.1% 12.4% 11.4% 1.09× 8.09
Not both score & over 2.5 8.4% 8.3% 11.9% 0.70× 12.06
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 85.1% 85.6% 82.1% 1.04× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 14.9% 14.4% 17.9% 0.81× 6.94
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 71.0% 73.7% 68.6% 1.08× 1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.0% 26.3% 31.4% 0.84× 3.81
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 58.1% 60.0% 55.9% 1.07× 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 23.7% 21.1% 24.7% 0.86× 4.74
Both score 1st half only 12.9% 10.7% 12.8% 0.84× 9.35
Both score in both halves 5.3% 6.8% 6.8% 0.99× 14.80
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.8% 83.2% 80.4% 1.03× 1.20
Both teams to score by HT 18.2% 16.8% 19.6% 0.86× 5.95
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 53.8% 52.8% 61.6% 0.86× 1.90
A half without a goal 46.2% 47.2% 38.4% 1.23× 2.12
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.6% 47.2% 46.3% 1.02× 2.12
4-6 goals 26.5% 26.6% 32.8% 0.81× 3.76
0-1 goals 24.9% 22.9% 18.3% 1.25× 4.36
7+ goals 2.0% 1.8% 2.8% 0.66× 54.30
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham to score exactly 1 36.1% 35.9% 35.7% 1.01× 2.78
Fulham to score exactly 0 30.1% 33.8% 25.0% 1.35× 2.96
Fulham to score exactly 2 21.7% 22.3% 24.5% 0.91× 4.49
Fulham to score 3+ 12.1% 12.9% 14.9% 0.86× 7.76
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to score exactly 1 33.5% 32.6% 29.2% 1.11× 3.07
Tottenham Hotspur to score exactly 2 25.1% 26.5% 26.1% 1.02× 3.77
Tottenham Hotspur to score exactly 0 22.4% 23.3% 21.9% 1.06× 4.29
Tottenham Hotspur to score 3+ 19.0% 18.8% 22.9% 0.82× 5.33
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 42.4% 42.9% 39.8% 1.08× 2.33
Tottenham Hotspur leading at HT 37.0% 38.4% 36.1% 1.06× 2.61
Fulham leading at HT 20.6% 20.8% 24.3% 0.86× 4.80
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur -1: 2 56.0% 56.7% — — 1.76
Tottenham Hotspur -1: X 22.3% 23.5% — — 4.26
Tottenham Hotspur -1: 1 21.7% 23.5% — — 4.26
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham (0:1) 56.0% 55.8% 57.0% 0.98× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 22.3% 24.2% 19.1% 1.27× 4.13
Tottenham Hotspur (0:1) 21.7% 24.2% 24.0% 1.01× 4.13
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham (0:2) 78.3% 79.4% 76.0% 1.04× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.2% 11.0% 13.2% 0.83× 9.09
Tottenham Hotspur (0:2) 8.5% 7.7% 10.9% 0.70× 13.03
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham (0:3) 91.5% 92.7% 89.1% 1.04× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.8% 5.8% 7.6% 0.76× 17.24
Tottenham Hotspur (0:3) 2.7% 2.4% 3.4% 0.70× 42.07
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham (0:4) 97.3% 98.1% 96.6% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.0% 1.2% 2.1% 0.59× 81.88
Tottenham Hotspur (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 1.4% 0.87× 82.02
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (1:0) 69.5% 70.2% 67.7% 1.04× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 17.9% 17.1% 16.7% 1.02× 5.85
Fulham (1:0) 12.6% 12.7% 15.7% 0.81× 7.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur (2:0) 87.4% 88.5% 84.3% 1.05× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.5% 6.4% 9.2% 0.69× 15.67
Fulham (2:0) 4.1% 2.3% 6.5% 0.35× 43.58
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.5% 48.8% 49.6% 0.98× 2.05
1st half highest scoring 28.3% 26.2% 25.8% 1.02× 3.81
Halves equal 25.2% 26.2% 24.7% 1.06× 3.82
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to concede 69.9% 66.7% 75.0% 0.89× 1.50
Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet 30.1% 33.3% 25.0% 1.33× 3.00
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet in 1st half 64.0% 63.6% 59.7% 1.06× 1.57
Tottenham Hotspur to concede in 1st half 36.0% 36.4% 40.3% 0.90× 2.75
Home clean sheet 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to concede in 2nd half 53.0% 52.7% 57.8% 0.91× 1.90
Tottenham Hotspur clean sheet in 2nd half 47.0% 47.3% 42.2% 1.12× 2.12
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur over 2.5 corners 89.1% 86.2% — — 1.16
Tottenham Hotspur over 3.5 corners 79.0% 76.5% — — 1.31
Tottenham Hotspur over 4.5 corners 66.7% 66.7% — — 1.50
Tottenham Hotspur under 6.5 corners 58.8% 57.5% — — 1.74
Tottenham Hotspur over 5.5 corners 53.6% 52.6% — — 1.90
Tottenham Hotspur under 5.5 corners 46.4% 47.4% — — 2.11
Tottenham Hotspur over 6.5 corners 41.2% 42.5% — — 2.35
Tottenham Hotspur under 4.5 corners 33.3% 33.3% — — 3.01
Tottenham Hotspur under 3.5 corners 21.0% 23.5% — — 4.26
Tottenham Hotspur under 2.5 corners 10.9% 13.8% — — 7.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur under 3.5 goals 93.5% 92.2% 91.5% 1.01× 1.08
Tottenham Hotspur under 2.5 goals 81.0% 82.2% 77.1% 1.07× 1.22
Tottenham Hotspur over 0.5 goals 77.6% 77.7% 78.1% 1.00× 1.29
Tottenham Hotspur under 1.5 goals 55.9% 58.6% 51.1% 1.15× 1.71
Tottenham Hotspur over 1.5 goals 44.1% 41.4% 48.9% 0.85× 2.41
Tottenham Hotspur under 0.5 goals 22.4% 22.3% 21.9% 1.01× 4.49
Tottenham Hotspur over 2.5 goals 19.0% 17.8% 22.9% 0.78× 5.62
Tottenham Hotspur over 3.5 goals 6.5% 7.8% 8.5% 0.91× 12.89
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur under 1.5 in 1st half 84.3% 83.8% 84.4% 0.99× 1.19
Tottenham Hotspur over 0.5 in 1st half 50.5% 50.3% 51.2% 0.98× 1.99
Tottenham Hotspur under 0.5 in 1st half 49.5% 49.7% 48.8% 1.02× 2.01
Tottenham Hotspur over 1.5 in 1st half 15.7% 16.2% 15.6% 1.04× 6.18
Home highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur scores equally in both 36.7% 37.9% 37.7% 1.00× 2.64
Tottenham Hotspur scores more in 2nd half 34.3% 33.0% 36.1% 0.92× 3.03
Tottenham Hotspur scores more in 1st half 29.0% 27.9% 26.3% 1.06× 3.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham (home no bet) 54.5% 51.4% 56.6% 0.91× 1.95
Draw (home no bet) 45.5% 48.6% 43.4% 1.12× 2.06
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur even goals 52.5% 50.7% 54.0% 0.94× 1.97
Tottenham Hotspur odd goals 47.5% 49.3% 46.0% 1.07× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.7% 33.3% 28.1% 1.18× 3.00
HT 1-0 22.3% 24.4% 21.5% 1.13× 4.10
HT 0-1 14.1% 11.0% 14.8% 0.75× 9.06
HT 1-1 10.0% 6.9% 10.8% 0.64× 14.45
HT 2-0 7.8% 6.9% 8.0% 0.86× 14.48
Any other HT score 4.5% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 41.99
HT 2-1 3.5% 2.4% 3.7% 0.64× 42.05
HT 0-2 3.2% 2.4% 4.4% 0.54× 42.07
HT 1-2 2.2% 2.4% 2.9% 0.82× 42.13
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.4% 1.0% 2.39× 42.23
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur at HT / Tottenham Hotspur at FT 28.1% 27.3% 26.4% 1.03× 3.67
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.3% 16.7% 13.8% 1.21× 5.99
Fulham at HT / Fulham at FT 14.7% 12.7% 16.7% 0.76× 7.90
Draw at HT / Tottenham Hotspur at FT 14.0% 12.7% 13.9% 0.91× 7.90
Draw at HT / Fulham at FT 13.1% 12.6% 12.3% 1.03× 7.91
Tottenham Hotspur at HT / Draw at FT 6.2% 6.0% 6.4% 0.95× 16.65
Fulham at HT / Draw at FT 4.0% 3.5% 4.8% 0.73× 28.62
Tottenham Hotspur at HT / Fulham at FT 2.7% 3.5% 3.5% 1.01× 28.67
Fulham at HT / Tottenham Hotspur at FT 1.8% 3.5% 2.9% 1.21× 28.70
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to score last 51.7% 52.1% 50.1% 1.04× 1.92
Fulham to score last 41.6% 40.0% 45.1% 0.89× 2.50
No goal scored 6.7% 7.4% 5.0% 1.50× 13.45
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.3% 92.7% 95.1% 0.98× 1.08
Tottenham Hotspur to lead by 1 at any time 59.7% 55.0% 62.0% 0.89× 1.82
Fulham to lead by 1 at any time 47.9% 44.6% 51.5% 0.87× 2.24
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 45.9% 44.5% 50.6% 0.88× 2.25
Tottenham Hotspur to lead by 2 at any time 28.0% 25.5% 29.9% 0.85× 3.92
Fulham to lead by 2 at any time 18.1% 15.0% 21.0% 0.71× 6.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 16.0% 14.9% 21.2% 0.70× 6.70
Tottenham Hotspur to lead by 3 at any time 10.6% 10.4% 13.2% 0.79× 9.60
Fulham to lead by 3 at any time 5.5% 6.7% 8.1% 0.82× 14.99
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur most corners 59.8% 55.7% — — 1.80
Fulham most corners 30.6% 34.3% — — 2.92
Corners level 9.5% 8.4% — — 11.96
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.6% 87.4% 88.4% 0.99× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.6% 78.7% 77.9% 1.01× 1.27
2-6 goals 73.1% 72.4% 79.0% 0.92× 1.38
2-5 goals 69.4% 68.8% 75.1% 0.92× 1.45
1-3 goals 64.7% 63.3% 59.7% 1.06× 1.58
2-4 goals 61.4% 63.3% 64.5% 0.98× 1.58
3-6 goals 48.5% 48.5% 55.8% 0.87× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.6% 48.5% 46.3% 1.05× 2.06
3-5 goals 44.9% 43.6% 51.9% 0.84× 2.29
1-2 goals 42.7% 43.6% 36.6% 1.19× 2.30
3-4 goals 36.9% 39.2% 41.3% 0.95× 2.55
4-6 goals 26.5% 30.2% 32.8% 0.92× 3.31
4-5 goals 22.9% 24.5% 28.9% 0.85× 4.08
5-6 goals 11.6% 14.8% 14.5% 1.02× 6.75
7+ goals 2.0% 2.6% 2.8% 0.91× 39.13
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur never behind 45.3% 56.5% 48.5% 1.16× 1.77
Fulham never behind 33.6% 36.3% 38.0% 0.96× 2.76
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.8% 50.9% 49.2% 1.04× 1.96
Even number of goals 50.2% 49.1% 50.8% 0.97× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.0% 57.6% 53.5% 1.08× 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 45.0% 42.4% 46.5% 0.91× 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.3% 51.9% 51.9% 1.00× 1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.7% 48.1% 48.1% 1.00× 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.3% 92.3% 93.3% 0.99× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 93.3% 92.3% 95.1% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 86.3% 87.6% 82.8% 1.06× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 75.1% 77.3% 81.7% 0.95× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 71.5% 72.5% 64.5% 1.12× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 50.6% 52.5% 58.5% 0.90× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 49.4% 47.5% 41.5% 1.14× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 28.6% 27.5% 35.5% 0.78× 3.63
Under 1.5 goals 24.9% 22.7% 18.3% 1.24× 4.40
Over 4.5 goals 13.7% 12.4% 17.2% 0.72× 8.06
Under 0.5 goals 6.7% 7.7% 5.0% 1.56× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 5.7% 7.7% 6.7% 1.16× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.9% 97.2% 97.1% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.9% 92.4% 92.5% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 83.9% 81.1% 78.9% 1.03× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 67.0% 67.4% 76.2% 0.89× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 63.4% 61.9% 53.9% 1.15× 1.62
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 36.6% 38.1% 46.1% 0.83× 2.63
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 33.0% 32.6% 23.8% 1.37× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 16.1% 18.9% 21.1% 0.90× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.1% 7.6% 7.5% 1.02× 13.17
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.1% 2.8% 2.9% 0.96× 35.59
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.0% 89.2% 87.2% 1.02× 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.3% 68.5% 71.9% 0.95× 1.46
Under 1.5 in 1st half 68.1% 68.5% 64.3% 1.07× 1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half 31.9% 31.5% 35.7% 0.88× 3.17
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.7% 31.5% 28.1% 1.12× 3.17
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.0% 10.8% 12.8% 0.84× 9.29
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 79.7% 79.4% 75.7% 1.05× 1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 78.7% 79.4% 84.7% 0.94× 1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 54.2% 53.2% 45.6% 1.17× 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 45.8% 46.8% 54.4% 0.86× 2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 21.3% 20.6% 15.3% 1.35× 4.86
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 20.3% 20.6% 24.3% 0.85× 4.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham not to score in both halves 80.9% 84.3% 76.9% 1.10× 1.19
Tottenham Hotspur not to score in both halves 72.4% 73.9% 68.6% 1.08× 1.35
Tottenham Hotspur to score in both halves 27.6% 26.1% 31.4% 0.83× 3.83
Fulham to score in both halves 19.1% 15.7% 23.1% 0.68× 6.36
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 54.3% 53.9% 58.0% 0.93× 1.86
Only Tottenham Hotspur scores 23.3% 22.3% 20.1% 1.11× 4.49
Only Fulham scores 15.7% 16.0% 17.1% 0.94× 6.25
Neither team scores 6.7% 7.1% 5.0% 1.44× 14.04
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.5% 22.6% 23.3% 0.97× 4.43
Exactly 3 goals 22.0% 22.6% 23.1% 0.98× 4.43
Exactly 1 goals 18.2% 17.5% 13.4% 1.30× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 14.9% 12.1% 18.3% 0.66× 8.24
Exactly 5 goals 8.0% 7.6% 10.6% 0.72× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 6.7% 7.6% 5.0% 1.54× 13.14
6 or more goals 5.7% 7.6% 6.7% 1.14× 13.14
Total goals 1st half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 1st half 36.4% 37.4% 36.2% 1.03× 2.67
No goals in 1st half 31.7% 35.8% 28.1% 1.27× 2.79
2 goals in 1st half 20.9% 21.5% 23.0% 0.93× 4.65
3+ goals in 1st half 11.0% 10.7% 12.8% 0.84× 9.36
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 45.8% 45.1% 54.4% 0.83× 2.22
1 goal in 2nd half 32.9% 33.8% 30.4% 1.11× 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 21.3% 22.7% 15.3% 1.49× 4.40
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham not to win both halves 93.6% 94.1% 91.3% 1.03× 1.06
Tottenham Hotspur not to win both halves 87.8% 87.9% 86.4% 1.02× 1.14
Tottenham Hotspur to win both halves 12.2% 12.1% 13.6% 0.89× 8.25
Fulham to win both halves 6.4% 5.9% 8.7% 0.68× 17.06
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to win either half 57.8% 59.1% 58.7% 1.01× 1.69
Fulham to win neither half 54.9% 54.4% 51.7% 1.05× 1.84
Fulham to win either half 45.1% 45.6% 48.4% 0.94× 2.19
Tottenham Hotspur to win neither half 42.2% 40.9% 41.3% 0.99× 2.44
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fulham not to win to nil 84.3% 83.1% 82.9% 1.00× 1.20
Tottenham Hotspur not to win to nil 76.7% 78.1% 79.9% 0.98× 1.28
Tottenham Hotspur to win to nil 23.3% 21.9% 20.1% 1.09× 4.57
Fulham to win to nil 15.7% 16.9% 17.1% 0.99× 5.92
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.5% 27.9% 24.8% 1.13× 3.59
Tottenham Hotspur by 1 22.3% 24.1% 19.1% 1.26× 4.15
Fulham by 1 17.9% 17.1% 16.7% 1.02× 5.87
Tottenham Hotspur by 2 13.2% 11.8% 13.2% 0.89× 8.51
Fulham by 2 8.5% 7.2% 9.2% 0.78× 13.90
Tottenham Hotspur by 3+ 8.5% 7.2% 10.9% 0.66× 13.90
Fulham by 3+ 4.1% 2.7% 6.5% 0.42× 36.78
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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