Tottenham Hotspur v Leeds United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 11 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 11
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
13 – 6
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.48 – 1.34
Goals − xG
-0.50 – -0.87
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Tottenham Hotspur win
29.9%
Draw
28.8%
Leeds United win
41.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 18.3 xG
conceded 10
from 15.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.25–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.30–1.54 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 57% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Tottenham Hotspur 1.50 xGLeeds United 1.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Tottenham Hotspur attacking right
Leeds United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Leeds United |
Pascal Struijk | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Daniel James |
| 20' |
Leeds United |
Joe Rodon | 0.23 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
| 25' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rodrigo Bentancur |
| 27' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Conor Gallagher | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 32' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Conor Gallagher | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Richarlison |
| 32' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Rodrigo Bentancur | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 35' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Rodrigo Bentancur | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 39' |
Leeds United |
Ao Tanaka | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joe Rodon |
| 43' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 57' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 60' |
Leeds United |
Daniel James | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 68' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 74' |
Leeds United |
Lukas Nmecha | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Leeds United |
James Justin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Wilfried Gnonto |
| 83' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anton Stach |
| 90' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Kevin Danso | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 92' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Lucas Bergvall | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 97' |
Leeds United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | James Justin |
| 98' |
Leeds United |
Sean Longstaff | 0.35 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jaka Bijol |
| 102' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 104' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kevin Danso |
Players
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richarlison FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.04 | 0.63 |
| João Palhinha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Conor Gallagher AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.21 | 0.75 |
| Kevin Danso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Antonín Kinsky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Randal Kolo Muani AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| Mathys Tel AML | 88 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| Lucas Bergvall Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| James Maddison Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Djed Spence Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.78 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Ao Tanaka MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| James Justin DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| Anton Stach MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jaka Bijol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.02 |
| Karl Darlow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Daniel James DMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Brenden Aaronson FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.02 |
| Pascal Struijk DC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sebastiaan Bornauw Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Wilfried Gnonto Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Sean Longstaff Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.27 |