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Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 30 September 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Tottenham Hotspur
2–1
2.19 – 1.12 xG
Liverpool
Shots
24 – 13
On target
8 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 9
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-0.20 – -0.13
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.82.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Son Heung-Min 35' — goalCody Gakpo 48' — goal
Tottenham Hotspur 2.20 xGLiverpool 1.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Luis Díaz 2' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Alexis Mac Allister 3' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Dejan Kulusevski 7' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Andrew Robertson 12' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Cody Gakpo 12' — Saved Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Curtis Jones 18' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Joel Matip 19' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Mohamed Salah 21' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dejan Kulusevski 28' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)James Maddison 29' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Richarlison 32' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Son Heung-Min 35' — Goal (0.55 xG, Open Play)Cody Gakpo 38' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Richarlison 40' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Son Heung-Min 45' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Pape Sarr 47' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Son Heung-Min 47' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Cody Gakpo 48' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)James Maddison 48' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Richarlison 48' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Son Heung-Min 50' — Saved Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Cristian Romero 51' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Cristian Romero 51' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Luis Díaz 52' — Missed Shot (0.53 xG, Open Play)Pape Sarr 57' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Yves Bissouma 60' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)James Maddison 72' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Virgil van Dijk 74' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Dominik Szoboszlai 77' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Pedro Porro 78' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Manor Solomon 79' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Richarlison 79' — Missed Shot (0.42 xG, Open Play)Yves Bissouma 85' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)James Maddison 88' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Richarlison 91' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 93' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Joel Matip 95' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)
Tottenham Hotspur attacking right Liverpool attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mohamed Salah
3' Liverpool Alexis Mac Allister 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot —
7' Tottenham Hotspur Dejan Kulusevski 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Pedro Porro
12' Liverpool Andrew Robertson 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
12' Liverpool Cody Gakpo 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Andrew Robertson
18' Liverpool Curtis Jones 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Dominik Szoboszlai
19' Liverpool Joel Matip 0.04 From Corner — Missed Shot Andrew Robertson
21' Liverpool Mohamed Salah 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Cody Gakpo
28' Tottenham Hotspur Dejan Kulusevski 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot James Maddison
29' Tottenham Hotspur James Maddison 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Pedro Porro
32' Tottenham Hotspur Richarlison 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Dejan Kulusevski
35' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.55 Open Play Right Foot Goal Richarlison
38' Liverpool Cody Gakpo 0.02 From Corner — Blocked Shot Andrew Robertson
40' Tottenham Hotspur Richarlison 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Son Heung-Min
45' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Dejan Kulusevski
47' Tottenham Hotspur Pape Sarr 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Iyenoma Destiny Udogie
47' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Richarlison
48' Liverpool Cody Gakpo 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal Virgil van Dijk
48' Tottenham Hotspur James Maddison 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Cristian Romero
48' Tottenham Hotspur Richarlison 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
50' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Iyenoma Destiny Udogie
51' Tottenham Hotspur Cristian Romero 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Dejan Kulusevski
51' Tottenham Hotspur Cristian Romero 0.03 From Corner — Blocked Shot James Maddison
52' Liverpool Luis Díaz 0.53 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Mohamed Salah
57' Tottenham Hotspur Pape Sarr 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Iyenoma Destiny Udogie
60' Tottenham Hotspur Yves Bissouma 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Dejan Kulusevski
72' Tottenham Hotspur James Maddison 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Manor Solomon
74' Liverpool Virgil van Dijk 0.06 From Corner — Missed Shot Trent Alexander-Arnold
77' Liverpool Dominik Szoboszlai 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Andrew Robertson
78' Tottenham Hotspur Pedro Porro 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot James Maddison
79' Tottenham Hotspur Manor Solomon 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot James Maddison
79' Tottenham Hotspur Richarlison 0.42 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
85' Tottenham Hotspur Yves Bissouma 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Manor Solomon
88' Tottenham Hotspur James Maddison 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Dejan Kulusevski
91' Tottenham Hotspur Richarlison 0.09 Open Play — Saved Shot Pedro Porro
93' Tottenham Hotspur Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Manor Solomon
95' Liverpool Joel Matip 0.00 Open Play Left Foot Own Goal —

Players

Tottenham Hotspur

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Richarlison AML 90 0 1 5 2 0.75 0.59 1.40
Dejan Kulusevski AMR 90 0 0 2 5 0.11 0.25 0.44
James Maddison AMC 90 0 0 4 4 0.10 0.16 0.95
Cristian Romero DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.02 0.38
Yves Bissouma DMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.06 0.00 0.81
Pape Sarr DMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.04 0.00 0.24
Pedro Porro DR 90 0 0 1 3 0.02 0.15 0.91
Micky van de Ven DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.70
Guglielmo Vicario GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.39 0.99
Son Heung-Min FW 76 1 0 4 1 1.00 0.11 1.19
Manor Solomon Sub 14 0 0 1 3 0.03 0.05 0.14
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.10
Oliver Skipp Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ben Davies Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Alejo Véliz Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Liverpool

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Virgil van Dijk DC 90 0 1 1 1 0.06 0.10 0.75
Andrew Robertson DL 90 0 0 1 4 0.06 0.20 0.85
Joel Matip DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.69
Dominik Szoboszlai MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.03 0.80
Alisson GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.67
Alexis Mac Allister MC 87 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.76
Mohamed Salah FWR 81 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.63 0.68
Luis Díaz FWL 80 0 0 2 0 0.63 0.00 0.88
Joseph Gomez DR 80 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.67
Cody Gakpo FW 53 1 0 3 1 0.25 0.02 0.79
Curtis Jones MC 25 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.12
Diogo Jota Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ibrahima Konaté Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wataru Endo Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Trent Alexander-Arnold Sub 9 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.00
Ryan Gravenberch Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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