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Tottenham Hotspur v Luton — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 30 March 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

2–1
2.47 – 0.40 xG
Shots
17 – 8
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
14 – 4
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.54 – +0.60
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.42.12.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Tahith Chong 2' — goalSon Heung-Min 85' — goal
Tottenham Hotspur 2.54 xGLuton 0.40 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Tahith Chong 2' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)Pape Sarr 5' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Timo Werner 14' — Missed Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Carlton Morris 16' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Pape Sarr 19' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Son Heung-Min 19' — Shot On Post (0.56 xG, Open Play)Timo Werner 19' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Son Heung-Min 37' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alfie Doughty 43' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Luke Berry 43' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Son Heung-Min 47' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Son Heung-Min 47' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Ross Barkley 49' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Issa Kabore 50' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Son Heung-Min 55' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Brennan Johnson 56' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)James Maddison 61' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Jordan Clark 64' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Rodrigo Bentancur 69' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Pedro Porro 70' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Brennan Johnson 77' — Blocked Shot (0.69 xG, Open Play)Pedro Porro 78' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Son Heung-Min 85' — Goal (0.13 xG, Open Play)Andros Townsend 88' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Timo Werner 92' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)
Tottenham Hotspur attacking right Luton attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Luton Tahith Chong 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Goal Ross Barkley
5' Tottenham Hotspur Pape Sarr 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Timo Werner
14' Tottenham Hotspur Timo Werner 0.32 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Dejan Kulusevski
16' Luton Carlton Morris 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Reece Burke
19' Tottenham Hotspur Pape Sarr 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
19' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.56 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Dejan Kulusevski
19' Tottenham Hotspur Timo Werner 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
37' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Dejan Kulusevski
43' Luton Alfie Doughty 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Andros Townsend
43' Luton Luke Berry 0.04 From Corner Missed Shot Alfie Doughty
47' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Timo Werner
47' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Brennan Johnson
49' Luton Ross Barkley 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Alfie Doughty
50' Luton Issa Kabore 0.00 Open Play Left Foot Own Goal
55' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Pedro Porro
56' Tottenham Hotspur Brennan Johnson 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Yves Bissouma
61' Tottenham Hotspur James Maddison 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Son Heung-Min
64' Luton Jordan Clark 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot
69' Tottenham Hotspur Rodrigo Bentancur 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Timo Werner
70' Tottenham Hotspur Pedro Porro 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Brennan Johnson
77' Tottenham Hotspur Brennan Johnson 0.69 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Giovani Lo Celso
78' Tottenham Hotspur Pedro Porro 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Missed Shot
85' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Goal Brennan Johnson
88' Luton Andros Townsend 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Ross Barkley
92' Tottenham Hotspur Timo Werner 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

Players

Luton

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Carlton Morris FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.12
Andros Townsend FWR 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.06 0.31
Ross Barkley MC 90 0 1 1 2 0.02 0.13 0.21
Thomas Kaminski GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Teden Mengi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Issa Kabore DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alfie Doughty DL 86 0 0 1 2 0.06 0.07 0.21
Tahith Chong FWL 77 1 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Luke Berry MC 66 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.06
Reece Burke DC 49 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.12 0.12
Daiki Hashioka Sub 41 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jordan Clark Sub 24 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.00
Fred Onyedinma Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cauley Woodrow Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Tottenham Hotspur

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Son Heung-Min FW 90 1 0 6 1 0.97 0.12 1.52
Timo Werner AML 90 0 0 3 3 0.44 0.18 1.71
Pedro Porro DR 90 0 0 2 1 0.13 0.09 0.83
Cristian Romero DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.04
Radu Dragusin DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.00
Guglielmo Vicario GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.77
Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.78
Yves Bissouma DMC 88 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.81
James Maddison AMC 71 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.29
Pape Sarr DMC 71 0 0 2 0 0.11 0.00 1.08
Dejan Kulusevski AMR 49 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.90 0.94
Brennan Johnson Sub 41 0 1 2 3 0.72 0.30 1.04
Rodrigo Bentancur Sub 19 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.20
Giovani Lo Celso Sub 19 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.69 0.73
Richarlison Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Sub 1 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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