Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 5
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 5
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.32 – 0.24
Goals − xG
+0.64 – +1.18
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Tottenham Hotspur win
44.4%
Draw
25.9%
Manchester United win
29.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Manchester United have scored 20 from 20.9 expected and conceded 13 from 14.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWWDWWLWD last 10
scored 20
from 20.9 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–1.24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.78–1.45 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 64% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Tottenham Hotspur 1.36 xGManchester United 0.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Tottenham Hotspur attacking right
Manchester United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Xavi Simons | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 16' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pape Sarr | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
 Manchester United |
Matheus Cunha | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Patrick Dorgu |
| 31' |
Manchester United |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.27 | Open Play | — | Goal | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 53' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Cristian Romero | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wilson Odobert |
| 55' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
João Palhinha | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 69' |
Manchester United |
Bruno Fernandes | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Amad Diallo Traore |
| 81' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iyenoma Destiny Udogie |
| 83' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Iyenoma Destiny Udogie |
| 88' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Wilson Odobert |
| 90' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.22 | From Corner | — | Goal | Wilson Odobert |
| 90' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Wilson Odobert | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Manchester United |
Matthijs de Ligt | 0.24 | From Corner | — | Goal | Bruno Fernandes |
Players
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richarlison AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Pape Sarr DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Brennan Johnson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Djed Spence DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Cristian Romero DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| João Palhinha DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Xavi Simons AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Randal Kolo Muani FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wilson Odobert Sub | 43 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.79 | 0.66 |
| Iyenoma Destiny Udogie Sub | 22 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Mathys Tel Sub | 10 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kevin Danso Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Manchester United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mbeumo AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Matthijs de Ligt DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Bruno Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Amad Diallo Traore AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Luke Shaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Senne Lammens GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Patrick Dorgu DML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| Matheus Cunha FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Casemiro MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Harry Maguire DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Noussair Mazraoui DMR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Benjamin Sesko Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Mason Mount Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Ugarte Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leny Yoro Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diogo Dalot Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |