Tottenham Hotspur v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 7 April 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 14
On target
7 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.25 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+1.38 – -1.06
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Tottenham Hotspur win
53.7%
Draw
22.9%
Nottingham Forest win
23.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.82–1.13 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Tottenham Hotspur 1.62 xGNottingham Forest 2.06 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Tottenham Hotspur attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Yves Bissouma | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Maddison |
| 5' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Timo Werner | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Son Heung-Min |
| 10' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Yves Bissouma | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 14' | Nottingham Forest | Murillo | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 16' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Yves Bissouma | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 23' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.84 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Timo Werner |
| 23' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | James Maddison |
| 23' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Yves Bissouma | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | James Maddison |
| 26' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Anthony Elanga |
| 33' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 33' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ola Aina |
| 34' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ola Aina |
| 37' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrew Omobamidele |
| 46' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Brennan Johnson | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.64 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 52' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Micky van de Ven | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Son Heung-Min |
| 54' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Neco Williams |
| 57' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Rodrigo Bentancur |
| 61' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
James Maddison | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iyenoma Destiny Udogie |
| 62' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 66' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 78' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' | Nottingham Forest | Nicolás Domínguez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 84' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Son Heung-Min | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 88' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Giovani Lo Celso | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dejan Kulusevski |
| 96' | Nottingham Forest | Divock Origi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Elanga |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Anthony Elanga AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.44 | 0.14 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Neco Williams DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Andrew Omobamidele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| Ola Aina DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ryan Yates DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Danilo DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Chris Wood FW | 71 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.68 | 0.00 | 1.72 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| Nicolás Domínguez Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Divock Origi Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Giovanni Reyna Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ibrahim Sangare Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gonzalo Montiel Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brennan Johnson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.92 | 0.15 | 1.08 |
| Son Heung-Min FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 0.31 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 1.02 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Cristian Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| James Maddison AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.17 | 1.16 |
| Timo Werner AML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.84 | 1.02 |
| Yves Bissouma DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Pape Sarr DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur Sub | 41 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Giovani Lo Celso Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dejan Kulusevski Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Dane Scarlett Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |