Toulouse v Angers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
25 – 6
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
20 – 2
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
1.23 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.91 – +0.68
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Toulouse win
54.3%
Draw
24.4%
Angers win
21.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDLDLDWDWD last 10
scored 14
from 16.8 xG
conceded 12
from 12.1 xG
Angers are finishing below their chances — 2.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDWLLD last 10
scored 11
from 13.6 xG
conceded 17
from 20.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.47–0.79 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.01–0.73 | 2-0 13% | 52% | 45% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Toulouse 1.91 xGAngers 0.32 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Toulouse attacking right
Angers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Emersonn |
| 4' |
Toulouse |
Alexis Vossah | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 4' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Mark McKenzie |
| 9' |
 Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 24' |
Toulouse |
Dayann Methalie | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 29' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
Toulouse |
Alexis Vossah | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Frank Magri |
| 42' |
Toulouse |
Mark McKenzie | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 43' |
Toulouse |
Dayann Methalie | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 43' |
Toulouse |
Mark McKenzie | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 44' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.19 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 45' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 45' |
Toulouse |
Mark McKenzie | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Charlie Cresswell |
| 46' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yassin Belkhdim |
| 46' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.11 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mark McKenzie |
| 47' |
Toulouse |
Dayann Methalie | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Vossah |
| 53' |
Angers |
Yassin Belkhdim | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amine Sbaï |
| 55' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 58' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Angers |
Louis Mouton | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 60' |
Toulouse |
Rasmus Nicolaisen | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 63' |
Angers |
Amine Sbaï | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Haris Belkebla |
| 77' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 81' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.55 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 84' |
Toulouse |
Noah Edjouma | 0.08 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 88' |
Toulouse |
Noah Edjouma | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Charlie Cresswell |
| 91' |
Toulouse |
Noah Edjouma | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 91' |
Toulouse |
Rasmus Nicolaisen | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Djibril Sidibe |
Players
Angers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yassin Belkhdim AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.01 | 0.13 |
| Amine Sbaï AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Ousmane Camara DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Haris Belkebla DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Himad Abdelli DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacques Ekomie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Lefort DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kouakou Herve Koffi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lilian Raolisoa DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Louis Mouton AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Sidiki Chérif FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Prosper Peter Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djibirin Harouna Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Courcoul Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florent Hanin Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emersonn FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0.13 | 0.45 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Yann Gboho AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| Aron Dønnum DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.27 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Alexis Vossah MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Dayann Methalie DML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Frank Magri AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Rafik Messali Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Noah Edjouma Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Djibril Sidibe Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Julián Vignolo Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |