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Toulouse v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 1 December 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

2–0
2.79 – 0.13 xG
Shots
12 – 4
On target
6 – 0
Shots in box
9 – 2
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.76 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.83 – -0.13
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.62.43.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Joshua King 31' — goalVincent Sierro 38' — goal
Toulouse 2.83 xGAuxerre 0.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Zakaria Aboukhlal 7' — Saved Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Aboukhlal 7' — Blocked Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Yann Gboho 20' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Joshua King 24' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Joshua King 31' — Goal (0.34 xG, Open Play)Vincent Sierro 38' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Zakaria Aboukhlal 41' — Saved Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Aron Dønnum 48' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Yann Gboho 50' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Aboukhlal 57' — Missed Shot (0.28 xG, Open Play)Rayan Raveloson 58' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Theo Bair 65' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Vincent Sierro 73' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Florian Aye 82' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Yann Gboho 89' — Saved Shot (0.42 xG, Open Play)Kévin Danois 94' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Toulouse attacking right Auxerre attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
7' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Yann Gboho
7' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
20' Toulouse Yann Gboho 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Joshua King
24' Toulouse Joshua King 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mark McKenzie
31' Toulouse Joshua King 0.34 Open Play Right Foot Goal Gabriel Suazo
38' Toulouse Vincent Sierro 0.76 Right Foot Goal —
41' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.36 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Aron Dønnum
48' Toulouse Aron Dønnum 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
50' Toulouse Yann Gboho 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Joshua King
57' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.28 Open Play — Missed Shot Gabriel Suazo
58' Auxerre Rayan Raveloson 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
65' Auxerre Theo Bair 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Hamed Junior Traore
73' Toulouse Vincent Sierro 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
82' Auxerre Florian Aye 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Kévin Danois
89' Toulouse Yann Gboho 0.42 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Shavy Babicka
94' Auxerre Kévin Danois 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Paul Joly

Players

Auxerre

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Gideon Mensah DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Clément Akpa DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Donovan Léon GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Elisha Owusu MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Gaetan Perrin MR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Jubal DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Hamed Junior Traore ML 81 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Rayan Raveloson MC 65 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Lassine Sinayoko FW 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ki-Jana Hoever DR 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sinaly Diomande DC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Paul Joly Sub 43 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.05
Ado Onaiwu Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Theo Bair Sub 25 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Kévin Danois Sub 25 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.03 0.05
Florian Aye Sub 9 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03

Toulouse

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Vincent Sierro MC 90 1 0 2 0 0.77 0.00 0.55
Yann Gboho AMC 90 0 0 3 1 0.54 0.15 0.97
Gabriel Suazo DML 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.62 0.77
Djibril Sidibe DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.78
Charlie Cresswell DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.12
Mark McKenzie DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 1.02
Zakaria Aboukhlal AMC 87 0 0 4 0 1.12 0.00 1.12
Aron Dønnum DMR 87 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.36 0.73
Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC 87 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.32
Joshua King FW 82 1 0 2 2 0.38 0.12 0.50
Guillaume Restes GK 73 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Álex Domínguez Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42
Frank Magri Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Niklas Schmidt Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42
Shavy Babicka Sub 3 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.42 0.42
Warren Kamanzi Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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