Toulouse v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 8
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 5
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.81 – -0.87
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Toulouse win
55.3%
Draw
22.3%
Auxerre win
22.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–0.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.67–0.88 | 1-0 13% | 47% | 47% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Toulouse 0.81 xGAuxerre 0.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Toulouse attacking right
Auxerre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.20 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Oussama El Azzouzi |
| 10' |
Auxerre |
Romain Faivre | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oussama El Azzouzi |
| 13' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romain Faivre |
| 15' |
 Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 20' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pape Diop |
| 24' |
Auxerre |
Danny Namaso | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gideon Mensah |
| 25' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Lamine Sy |
| 29' |
Auxerre |
Romain Faivre | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emersonn |
| 47' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 47' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 54' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Emersonn |
| 64' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lamine Sy |
| 75' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 81' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Hidalgo |
| 90' |
Auxerre |
Kévin Danois | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josué Casimir |
Players
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassine Sinayoko FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Kévin Danois MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Lamine Sy DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clément Akpa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Danny Namaso FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Oussama El Azzouzi MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| Gideon Mensah DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.57 |
| Elisha Owusu MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Romain Faivre FWR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Josué Casimir Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Naouirou Ahamada Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Bryan Okoh Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sékou Mara Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Assane Diousse Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yann Gboho AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.01 | 0.19 |
| Aron Dønnum DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.09 |
| Pape Diop MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Santiago Hidalgo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Emersonn FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.45 | 0.11 | 0.57 |
| Djibril Sidibe DMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Rafik Messali Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Edjouma Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |