Toulouse v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 August 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 16
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 10
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
1.07 – 0.38
Goals − xG
+0.68 – -0.75
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Toulouse win
43.8%
Draw
26.4%
Brest win
29.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Brest are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLLLDDDW last 10
scored 15
from 18.0 xG
conceded 21
from 17.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.57–1.26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.86–1.30 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Toulouse 1.32 xGBrest 0.75 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Toulouse attacking right
Brest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 15' |
 Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 16' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pierre Lees-Melou |
| 18' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 23' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Ludovic Ajorque |
| 24' |
Brest |
Mama Baldé | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 25' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 46' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Yann Gboho |
| 51' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 55' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kamory Doumbia |
| 56' |
Brest |
Romain Del Castillo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mama Baldé |
| 64' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.98 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 81' |
Brest |
Michel Diaz | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 81' |
Brest |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Hamidou Makalou |
| 86' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 87' |
Brest |
Serigne Diop | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hamidou Makalou |
| 88' |
Brest |
Bradley Locko | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Axel Camblan |
| 91' |
Brest |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hamidou Makalou |
| 94' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
Brest |
Michel Diaz | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Julien Le Cardinal |
| 96' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 98' |
Brest |
Julien Le Cardinal | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.22 |
| Julien Le Cardinal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Bradley Locko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Radoslaw Majecki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mama Baldé FWL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| Kamory Doumbia MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Romain Del Castillo FWR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Hugo Magnetti MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Brendan Chardonnet DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michel Diaz Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joris Chotard Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Hamidou Makalou Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.02 |
| Axel Camblan Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Serigne Diop Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aron Dønnum FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jaydee Canvot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| Frank Magri FW | 88 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.12 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Dayann Methalie DML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Yann Gboho FWL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Djibril Sidibe DMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mário Sauer MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Warren Kamanzi Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Edjouma Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Hidalgo Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Mathis Saka Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |