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Toulouse v Le Havre — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 15 September 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

2–0
1.87 – 0.15 xG
Shots
15 – 5
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 1
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.72 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+0.13 – -0.15
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.01.62.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Shavy Babicka 69' — goalYann Gboho 85' — goal
Toulouse 1.87 xGLe Havre 0.15 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Zakaria Aboukhlal 0' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Yann Gboho 6' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Yann Gboho 6' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Yassine Kechta 7' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Rasmus Nicolaisen 12' — Blocked Shot (0.49 xG, From Corner)Aron Dønnum 13' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Emmanuel Sabbi 16' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Aboukhlal 27' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Issa Soumaré 29' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Daler Kuzyaev 54' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Rasmus Nicolaisen 61' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Yann Gboho 61' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Aboukhlal 66' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Shavy Babicka 69' — Goal (0.28 xG, Open Play)Daler Kuzyaev 72' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Aboukhlal 72' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Shavy Babicka 75' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Yann Gboho 85' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Yann Gboho 87' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Shavy Babicka 90' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)
Toulouse attacking right Le Havre attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.07 From Corner — Missed Shot Niklas Schmidt
6' Toulouse Yann Gboho 0.05 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Joshua King
6' Toulouse Yann Gboho 0.06 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot —
7' Le Havre Yassine Kechta 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
12' Toulouse Rasmus Nicolaisen 0.49 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
13' Toulouse Aron Dønnum 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot —
16' Le Havre Emmanuel Sabbi 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Issa Soumaré
27' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Joshua King
29' Le Havre Issa Soumaré 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
54' Le Havre Daler Kuzyaev 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Josué Casimir
61' Toulouse Rasmus Nicolaisen 0.03 From Corner — Missed Shot Vincent Sierro
61' Toulouse Yann Gboho 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Zakaria Aboukhlal
66' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.30 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Vincent Sierro
69' Toulouse Shavy Babicka 0.28 Open Play Right Foot Goal Rasmus Nicolaisen
72' Le Havre Daler Kuzyaev 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Antoine Joujou
72' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
75' Toulouse Shavy Babicka 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Warren Kamanzi
85' Toulouse Yann Gboho 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Goal Cristian Cásseres Jr.
87' Toulouse Yann Gboho 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Cristian Cásseres Jr.
90' Toulouse Shavy Babicka 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Warren Kamanzi

Players

Le Havre

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Daler Kuzyaev MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Gautier Lloris DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Christopher Operi DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Arthur Desmas GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Arouna Sangante DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Josué Casimir DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.09
Yassine Kechta FW 83 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Yoann Salmier DC 77 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Emmanuel Sabbi MR 64 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.11
Issa Soumaré ML 64 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.04 0.05
Rassoul Ndiaye MC 64 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Abdoulaye Touré Sub 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Antoine Joujou Sub 26 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Samuel Grandsir Sub 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Loïc Négo Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ilyes Housni Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Toulouse

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Rasmus Nicolaisen DC 90 0 1 2 1 0.52 0.28 0.63
Yann Gboho FW 90 1 0 5 0 0.38 0.00 0.57
Warren Kamanzi DMR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.10 0.68
Vincent Sierro MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.34 0.47
Mark McKenzie DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.32
Guillaume Restes GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Zakaria Aboukhlal AMC 83 0 0 4 1 0.57 0.09 0.59
Djibril Sidibe DC 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.58
Aron Dønnum DML 59 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.00
Joshua King AMC 59 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.13 0.08
Niklas Schmidt MC 59 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.00
Shavy Babicka Sub 31 1 0 3 0 0.38 0.00 0.38
Cristian Cásseres Jr. Sub 31 0 1 0 2 0.00 0.18 0.53
Gabriel Suazo Sub 31 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Miha Zajc Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Charlie Cresswell Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
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On this page

Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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