Toulouse v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 2 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 16
On target
2 – 7
Shots in box
6 – 11
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.39
Goals − xG
-0.47 – +0.15
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Toulouse win
35.7%
Draw
24.7%
Lens win
39.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WDLDLDWDWD last 10
scored 14
from 16.8 xG
conceded 12
from 12.1 xG
Lens have scored 20 from 21.5 expected and conceded 14 from 13.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LWWLLDLWWW last 10
scored 20
from 21.5 xG
conceded 14
from 13.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.21–1.29 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.50–1.21 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Toulouse 0.47 xGLens 2.85 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Toulouse attacking right
Lens attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Toulouse |
Rasmus Nicolaisen | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Mark McKenzie |
| 3' |
 Lens |
Saud Abdulhamid | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wesley Said |
| 6' |
Lens |
Malang Sarr | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
Lens |
Pierre Ganiou | 0.29 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 10' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 14' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Lens |
Odsonne Edouard | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 21' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Florian Thauvin |
| 35' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rafik Messali |
| 42' |
Lens |
Andrija Bulatovic | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Toulouse |
Mark McKenzie | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 48' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Lens |
Florian Thauvin | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 59' |
Lens |
Pierre Ganiou | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Djibril Sidibe |
| 69' |
Lens |
Wesley Said | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matthieu Udol |
| 73' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.50 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 84' |
Lens |
Rayan Fofana | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Saud Abdulhamid |
| 89' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Julián Vignolo |
| 90' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Lens |
Adrien Thomasson | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wesley Said |
| 94' |
Lens |
Pierre Ganiou | 0.21 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Adrien Thomasson |
Players
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Thomasson MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.85 | 0.27 | 1.91 |
| Wesley Said AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.82 | 0.40 | 1.38 |
| Pierre Ganiou DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Andrija Bulatovic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Saud Abdulhamid DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.34 | 0.79 |
| Malang Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Samson Baidoo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Robin Risser GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matthieu Udol DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| Florian Thauvin AMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.32 | 0.60 |
| Rayan Fofana Sub | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Odsonne Edouard FW | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Morgan Guilavogui Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florian Sotoca Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Bermont Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yann Gboho AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.12 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Djibril Sidibe DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Aron Dønnum DMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.18 | 0.17 |
| Rafik Messali AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Alexis Vossah MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Seny Koumbassa Sub | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Santiago Hidalgo Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mário Sauer Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emersonn FW | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Julián Vignolo Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Warren Kamanzi Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |