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Toulouse v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 3 September 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated

Toulouse
0–1
2.97 – 1.04 xG
Lille
Shots
24 – 10
On target
9 – 6
Shots in box
14 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.68 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-3.01 – -0.10

AI prediction

ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Toulouse win
25.8%
Draw
31.2%
Lille win
43.0%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Toulouse have scored 16 from 18.0 expected and conceded 13 from 12.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WWDLDLDWDW last 10 scored 16 from 18.0 xG conceded 13 from 12.2 xG

Lille are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DWLWDWWLWD last 10 scored 12 from 14.3 xG conceded 8 from 11.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTSOutcome
ai-blend-oos 1.01–1.36 0% 0% 0% Away ✓
dc-xg-oos 1.12–1.41 1-1 13% 46% 51% Away ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.72.53.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Ayase Ueda 72' — goal
Toulouse 3.01 xGLille 1.10 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Osame Sahraoui 0' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Cristian Cásseres Jr. 2' — Shot On Post (0.01 xG, Open Play)Ethan Mbappé 3' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jacen Russell-Rowe 8' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Santiago Hidalgo 8' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Thomas Jørgensen 8' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Alexis Vossah 13' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alexis Vossah 23' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Santiago Hidalgo 23' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jacen Russell-Rowe 25' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ilyas Azizi 29' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Tiago Santos 30' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Tiago Santos 32' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Calvin Verdonk 36' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jacen Russell-Rowe 37' — Blocked Shot (0.61 xG, Open Play)Santiago Hidalgo 37' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Santiago Hidalgo 38' — Saved Shot (0.53 xG, From Corner)Alexis Vossah 40' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Rasmus Nicolaisen 40' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Cristian Cásseres Jr. 41' — Missed Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Jacen Russell-Rowe 41' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Osame Sahraoui 45' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Santiago Hidalgo 49' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Direct Freekick)Rasmus Nicolaisen 65' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Christ Tapé 67' — Saved Shot (0.16 xG, Open Play)Ayase Ueda 72' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Ayase Ueda 72' — Goal (0.55 xG, Open Play)Casper Tengstedt 74' — Missed Shot (0.65 xG, Open Play)Dilane Bakwa 78' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Casper Tengstedt 80' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Cristian Cásseres Jr. 81' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Ngal'ayel Mukau 82' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Casper Tengstedt 89' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Ilyas Azizi 89' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)
Toulouse attacking right Lille attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Lille Osame Sahraoui 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Hákon Haraldsson
2' Toulouse Cristian Cásseres Jr. 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Christ Tapé
3' Lille Ethan Mbappé 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Hákon Haraldsson
8' Toulouse Jacen Russell-Rowe 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
8' Toulouse Santiago Hidalgo 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Cristian Cásseres Jr.
8' Toulouse Thomas Jørgensen 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Santiago Hidalgo
13' Toulouse Alexis Vossah 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ilyas Azizi
23' Toulouse Alexis Vossah 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot —
23' Toulouse Santiago Hidalgo 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
25' Toulouse Jacen Russell-Rowe 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Thomas Jørgensen
29' Toulouse Ilyas Azizi 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Cristian Cásseres Jr.
30' Lille Tiago Santos 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Hákon Haraldsson
32' Lille Tiago Santos 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Benjamin André
36' Lille Calvin Verdonk 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Olivier Giroud
37' Toulouse Jacen Russell-Rowe 0.61 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
37' Toulouse Santiago Hidalgo 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Rafik Messali
38' Toulouse Santiago Hidalgo 0.53 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot Mark McKenzie
40' Toulouse Alexis Vossah 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Rasmus Nicolaisen
40' Toulouse Rasmus Nicolaisen 0.02 From Corner — Missed Shot Cristian Cásseres Jr.
41' Toulouse Cristian Cásseres Jr. 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot —
41' Toulouse Jacen Russell-Rowe 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Cristian Cásseres Jr.
45' Lille Osame Sahraoui 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Benjamin André
49' Toulouse Santiago Hidalgo 0.08 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot —
65' Toulouse Rasmus Nicolaisen 0.03 From Corner — Missed Shot Cristian Cásseres Jr.
67' Toulouse Christ Tapé 0.16 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
72' Lille Ayase Ueda 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
72' Lille Ayase Ueda 0.55 Open Play — Goal —
74' Toulouse Casper Tengstedt 0.65 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Thomas Jørgensen
78' Lille Dilane Bakwa 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Hákon Haraldsson
80' Toulouse Casper Tengstedt 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Thomas Jørgensen
81' Toulouse Cristian Cásseres Jr. 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Christ Tapé
82' Lille Ngal'ayel Mukau 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Dilane Bakwa
89' Toulouse Casper Tengstedt 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Niklas Schmidt
89' Toulouse Ilyas Azizi 0.05 Open Play — Missed Shot Niklas Schmidt

Players

Lille

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Tiago Santos DR 90 0 0 2 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Alexsandro Ribeiro DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Nathan Ngoy DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Hákon Haraldsson AMC 90 0 0 0 4 0.00 0.31 0.44
Berke Özer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Benjamin André DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.05 0.10
Nabil Bentaleb DMC 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Ethan Mbappé AMR 60 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.13
Olivier Giroud FW 60 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.10
Osame Sahraoui AML 49 0 0 2 0 0.16 0.00 0.22
Calvin Verdonk DL 49 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.11
Dilane Bakwa Sub 41 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.07 0.14
Romain Perraud Sub 41 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Ayase Ueda Sub 30 1 0 2 0 0.65 0.00 0.65
Ngal'ayel Mukau Sub 30 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.07
Basar Önal Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07

Toulouse

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Cristian Cásseres Jr. DMC 90 0 0 3 5 0.38 0.26 0.71
Christ Tapé DL 90 0 0 1 2 0.16 0.03 0.27
Ilyas Azizi AML 90 0 0 2 1 0.08 0.02 0.12
Rasmus Nicolaisen DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.05 0.02 0.13
Thomas Jørgensen AMC 90 0 0 1 3 0.01 0.71 0.84
Mark McKenzie DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.53 0.10
Alexis Vossah DMC 75 0 0 3 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Guillaume Restes GK 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Rafik Messali DR 69 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.08
Jacen Russell-Rowe FW 68 0 0 4 0 0.79 0.00 0.79
Santiago Hidalgo AMR 60 0 0 5 1 0.77 0.01 0.18
Julián Vignolo Sub 30 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Casper Tengstedt Sub 22 0 0 3 0 0.71 0.00 0.71
Ismaïl Diallo Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.18
Mathys Niflore Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Niklas Schmidt Sub 15 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.09 0.11
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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