Toulouse v Lyon — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 August 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 11
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
12 – 7
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.92 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-2.27 – +1.24
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Toulouse win
37.5%
Draw
27.7%
Lyon win
34.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Lyon are conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWWLLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 17.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.42–1.36 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.23 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Toulouse 2.27 xGLyon 0.76 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Toulouse attacking right
Lyon attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Niklas Schmidt |
| 3' |
Toulouse |
Julián Vignolo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Niklas Schmidt |
| 9' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 10' |
Toulouse |
Julián Vignolo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thomas Jørgensen |
| 14' |
 Lyon |
Kail Boudache | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Lyon |
Kail Boudache | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rémi Himbert |
| 23' |
Toulouse |
Rasmus Nicolaisen | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Thomas Jørgensen |
| 25' |
Toulouse |
Christ Tapé | 0.65 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Toulouse |
Julián Vignolo | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 25' |
Toulouse |
Thomas Jørgensen | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christ Tapé |
| 26' |
Toulouse |
Christ Tapé | 0.22 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mark McKenzie |
| 44' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Julián Vignolo |
| 46' |
Lyon |
Kail Boudache | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rémi Himbert |
| 46' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 47' |
Toulouse |
Rasmus Nicolaisen | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Thomas Jørgensen |
| 52' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 53' |
Lyon |
Kail Boudache | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Felix Bacher |
| 58' |
Lyon |
Kail Boudache | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Noah Nartey |
| 58' |
Toulouse |
Julián Vignolo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Niklas Schmidt |
| 59' |
Toulouse |
Thomas Jørgensen | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 64' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 67' |
Lyon |
Noah Nartey | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pavel Sulc |
| 73' |
Lyon |
Mads Bidstrup | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Corentin Tolisso |
| 81' |
Toulouse |
Niklas Schmidt | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Lyon |
Malick Fofana | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Corentin Tolisso |
| 86' |
Lyon |
Corentin Tolisso | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pavel Sulc |
| 87' |
Lyon |
Felix Bacher | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Tyler Morton |
| 92' |
Lyon |
Kail Boudache | 0.19 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Lyon
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kail Boudache FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Felix Bacher DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Clinton Mata DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Remy Descamps GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mohamed Ouédraogo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Zachary Athekame DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Mads Bidstrup MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Noah Nartey MC | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Mathys de Carvalho MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julien Duranville FWL | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rémi Himbert FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Malick Fofana Sub | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Pavel Sulc Sub | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.17 |
| Corentin Tolisso Sub | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| Tyler Morton Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| Tanner Tessmann Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christ Tapé DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.13 | 0.57 |
| Thomas Jørgensen AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.17 | 0.85 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.70 | 0.66 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.40 |
| Niklas Schmidt DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| Yann Gboho AML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.13 | 0.49 |
| Santiago Hidalgo FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Julián Vignolo AMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.36 |
| Ismaïl Diallo DR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jacen Russell-Rowe Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rafik Messali Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilyas Azizi Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sion Oppong Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathis Saka Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |