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Toulouse v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 August 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

1–3
0.49 – 1.30 xG
Shots
4 – 12
On target
1 – 4
Shots in box
2 – 9
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.24
Goals − xG
+0.51 – +1.70
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.71.11.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Mason Greenwood 15' — goalMason Greenwood 16' — goalShavy Babicka 89' — goal
Toulouse 0.49 xGMarseille 1.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Rasmus Nicolaisen 3' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, From Corner)Mason Greenwood 15' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 16' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Sepe Elye Wahi 30' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Amir Murillo 31' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Geoffrey Kondogbia 32' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Mason Greenwood 46' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 50' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Luis Henrique 51' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Charlie Cresswell 51' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 57' — Missed Shot (0.51 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 78' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Valentín Carboni 78' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Jonathan Rowe 88' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Shavy Babicka 89' — Goal (0.35 xG, Open Play)Joshua King 91' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)
Toulouse attacking right Marseille attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Toulouse Rasmus Nicolaisen 0.12 From Corner Missed Shot Vincent Sierro
15' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Goal Luis Henrique
16' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Goal Luis Henrique
30' Marseille Sepe Elye Wahi 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Luis Henrique
31' Marseille Amir Murillo 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
32' Marseille Geoffrey Kondogbia 0.05 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot
46' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Amine Harit
50' Marseille Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
51' Marseille Luis Henrique 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Amine Harit
51' Toulouse Charlie Cresswell 0.00 Open Play Own Goal
57' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.51 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
78' Marseille Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
78' Marseille Valentín Carboni 0.03 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot
88' Marseille Jonathan Rowe 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Amir Murillo
89' Toulouse Shavy Babicka 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Goal Djibril Sidibe
91' Toulouse Joshua King 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gabriel Suazo

Players

Marseille

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mason Greenwood AMR 90 2 0 4 0 0.77 0.00 0.85
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.07
Amir Murillo DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.14 0.21
Geoffrey Kondogbia DMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.10
Lilian Brassier DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Quentin Merlin DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Gerónimo Rulli GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Derek Cornelius DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.26
Sepe Elye Wahi FW 81 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.25
Luis Henrique AML 71 0 2 1 3 0.08 0.23 0.32
Amine Harit AMC 71 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.19 0.19
Jonathan Rowe Sub 19 0 0 1 0 0.14 0.00 0.14
Valentín Carboni Sub 19 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.00
Neal Maupay Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bamo Meïté Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Valentin Rongier Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Toulouse

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Rasmus Nicolaisen DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.02
Guillaume Restes GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mark McKenzie DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
Vincent Sierro MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.12 0.00
Gabriel Suazo DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Yann Gboho AMC 81 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Aron Dønnum DML 81 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Zakaria Aboukhlal AMC 68 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC 68 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Charlie Cresswell DC 67 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Frank Magri FW 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Djibril Sidibe Sub 23 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.35 0.37
Shavy Babicka Sub 22 1 0 1 0 0.35 0.00 0.37
Warren Kamanzi Sub 22 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Joshua King Sub 9 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Niklas Schmidt Sub 9 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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