Toulouse v Metz — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 October 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 2
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
13 – 0
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
1.20 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.26 – -0.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Toulouse win
69.6%
Draw
16.1%
Metz win
14.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Metz are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.4 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDDLLDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 11.1 xG
conceded 23
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.29–0.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.11–0.78 | 2-0 12% | 55% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Toulouse 2.74 xGMetz 0.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Toulouse attacking right
Metz attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Emersonn |
| 7' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 17' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 21' |
 Metz |
Giorgi Abuashvili | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gauthier Hein |
| 21' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Guillaume Restes |
| 27' |
Metz |
Habib Diallo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Koffi Kouao |
| 36' |
Toulouse |
Dayann Methalie | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 52' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 52' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Djibril Sidibe |
| 57' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Charlie Cresswell |
| 65' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dayann Methalie |
| 72' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 73' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 74' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 78' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Charlie Cresswell |
| 79' |
Toulouse |
Abu Francis | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 83' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.37 | From Corner | — | Goal | Aron Dønnum |
| 86' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Charlie Cresswell |
Players
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aron Dønnum DMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.87 | 0.68 | 0.81 |
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.24 | 1.09 |
| Abu Francis MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.72 |
| Yann Gboho FWL | 86 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.27 | 1.06 |
| Emersonn FW | 79 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.11 | 0.89 |
| Dayann Methalie DML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.40 | 0.66 |
| Frank Magri FWR | 67 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Djibril Sidibe DC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.28 |
| Mark McKenzie Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Mário Sauer Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Santiago Hidalgo Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Warren Kamanzi Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julián Vignolo Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Metz
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Fischer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Koffi Kouao DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Cheick Tidiane Sabaly AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Philippe Gbamin DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alpha Touré MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Habib Diallo FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Gauthier Hein AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Boubacar Traore MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Fode Toure DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgi Abuashvili DML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sadibou Sané DC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Terry Yegbe Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giorgi Tsitaishvili Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jessy Deminguet Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ibou Sané Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joel Asoro Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |