Toulouse v Monaco — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 7 March 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 13
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 11
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.22
Set-piece xG
0.48 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-0.25 – -1.86
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Toulouse win
37.3%
Draw
29.7%
Monaco win
33.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.47–1.38 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Toulouse 1.25 xGMonaco 2.86 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Toulouse attacking right
Monaco attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Breel Embolo |
| 11' |
 Toulouse |
Vincent Sierro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Frank Magri |
| 12' |
Toulouse |
Shavy Babicka | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Monaco |
Takumi Minamino | 0.92 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mika Biereth |
| 20' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.43 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 25' |
Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 27' |
Monaco |
Vanderson | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 49' |
Monaco |
Caio Henrique | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Takumi Minamino |
| 57' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 60' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Breel Embolo |
| 67' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vincent Sierro |
| 68' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Djibril Sidibe |
| 69' |
Monaco |
Mika Biereth | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Caio Henrique |
| 72' |
Monaco |
Breel Embolo | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Thilo Kehrer |
| 72' |
Monaco |
Thilo Kehrer | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 74' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vanderson |
| 83' |
Toulouse |
Noah Edjouma | 0.46 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 86' |
Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | George Ilenikhena |
| 87' |
Monaco |
Wilfried Stephane Singo | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Lamine Camara |
| 90' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Aron Dønnum |
| 92' |
Toulouse |
Miha Zajc | 0.22 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Vincent Sierro |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Camara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.05 | 0.51 |
| Maghnes Akliouche AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.43 | 2.16 |
| Vanderson DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.25 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Caio Henrique DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Al Musrati DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Radoslaw Majecki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mika Biereth FW | 87 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1.09 | 1.48 | 2.61 |
| Takumi Minamino AML | 79 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.92 | 0.02 | 2.05 |
| Breel Embolo AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.68 | 0.71 |
| George Ilenikhena Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Ben Seghir Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Wilfried Stephane Singo Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Magri FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.02 | 0.70 |
| Vincent Sierro MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.24 | 0.66 |
| Aron Dønnum AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.46 |
| Djibril Sidibe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gabriel Suazo DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kjetil Haug GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Shavy Babicka AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jaydee Canvot MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rafik Messali DMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yann Gboho Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Miha Zajc Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Noah Edjouma Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.32 |