Toulouse v Monaco — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 April 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 8
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
10 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.71 – 0.36
Goals − xG
-0.29 – +0.65
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Toulouse win
36.3%
Draw
26.8%
Monaco win
36.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Toulouse have scored 16 from 18.0 expected and conceded 13 from 12.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWDLDLDWDW last 10
scored 16
from 18.0 xG
conceded 13
from 12.2 xG
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLLWWWDWDL last 10
scored 16
from 11.3 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.33–1.34 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.49–1.35 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 57% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Toulouse 2.29 xGMonaco 1.35 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Toulouse attacking right
Monaco attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 4' |
Monaco |
Maghnes Akliouche | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Anssumane Fati |
| 5' |
Monaco |
Jordan Teze | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Goal | Simon Adingra |
| 9' |
Monaco |
Simon Adingra | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Folarin Balogun |
| 13' |
Monaco |
Simon Adingra | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Folarin Balogun |
| 17' |
Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 18' |
 Toulouse |
Alexis Vossah | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
Toulouse |
Jacen Russell-Rowe | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 25' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 26' |
Monaco |
Anssumane Fati | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maghnes Akliouche |
| 33' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mark McKenzie |
| 35' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Toulouse |
Jacen Russell-Rowe | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dayann Methalie |
| 49' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pape Diop |
| 60' |
Toulouse |
Jacen Russell-Rowe | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dayann Methalie |
| 67' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Charlie Cresswell |
| 73' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.29 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 73' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.36 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Vossah |
| 81' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pape Diop |
| 88' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mika Biereth |
| 89' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 89' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.51 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 93' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mário Sauer |
Players
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Teze DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Denis Zakaria MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Lamine Camara MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Thilo Kehrer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Christian Mawissa Elebi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wout Faes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simon Adingra DML | 84 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| Folarin Balogun FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| Maghnes Akliouche AMC | 75 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| Anssumane Fati AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Aleksandr Golovin Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eric Dier Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paul Pogba Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mika Biereth Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.73 | 0.02 | 0.58 |
| Aron Dønnum DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.45 | 0.58 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Pape Diop AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.31 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Dayann Methalie DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 0.83 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.56 |
| Alexis Vossah MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.25 |
| Santiago Hidalgo AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jacen Russell-Rowe FW | 74 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Emersonn Sub | 16 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Ilyas Azizi Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mário Sauer Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Julián Vignolo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Warren Kamanzi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |