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Toulouse v Nantes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 18 August 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

0–0
1.51 – 0.51 xG
Shots
12 – 10
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.43 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-1.51 – -0.51
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.81.31.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'
Toulouse 1.51 xGNantes 0.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Matthis Abline 15' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Matthis Abline 17' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Douglas Augusto 18' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Sorba Thomas 21' — Shot On Post (0.06 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Aboukhlal 26' — Saved Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Frank Magri 27' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Matthis Abline 31' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Yann Gboho 35' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Cristian Cásseres Jr. 40' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Set Piece)Matthis Abline 43' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Frank Magri 58' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Charlie Cresswell 60' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Jean-Charles Castelletto 63' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Moses Simon 63' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Moses Simon 64' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Charlie Cresswell 71' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Set Piece)Tinotenda Kadewere 73' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Zakaria Aboukhlal 79' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Zakaria Aboukhlal 81' — Saved Shot (0.52 xG, Open Play)Frank Magri 84' — Missed Shot (0.15 xG, Set Piece)Zakaria Aboukhlal 93' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Yann Gboho 94' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)
Toulouse attacking right Nantes attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
15' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Marcus Coco
17' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Sorba Thomas
18' Nantes Douglas Augusto 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Kelvin Adou
21' Nantes Sorba Thomas 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post
26' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.32 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
27' Toulouse Frank Magri 0.02 From Corner Saved Shot Niklas Schmidt
31' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Douglas Augusto
35' Toulouse Yann Gboho 0.07 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot
40' Toulouse Cristian Cásseres Jr. 0.08 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Rasmus Nicolaisen
43' Nantes Matthis Abline 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Alban Lafont
58' Toulouse Frank Magri 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Aron Dønnum
60' Toulouse Charlie Cresswell 0.06 From Corner Missed Shot Niklas Schmidt
63' Nantes Jean-Charles Castelletto 0.11 From Corner Saved Shot Sorba Thomas
63' Nantes Moses Simon 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
64' Nantes Moses Simon 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Matthis Abline
71' Toulouse Charlie Cresswell 0.05 Set Piece Saved Shot Gabriel Suazo
73' Nantes Tinotenda Kadewere 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Matthis Abline
79' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.01 From Corner Blocked Shot Gabriel Suazo
81' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.52 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Logan Costa
84' Toulouse Frank Magri 0.15 Set Piece Missed Shot Vincent Sierro
93' Toulouse Zakaria Aboukhlal 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Vincent Sierro
94' Toulouse Yann Gboho 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Charlie Cresswell

Players

Toulouse

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Zakaria Aboukhlal FWR 90 0 0 4 0 0.86 0.00 0.99
Yann Gboho FWL 90 0 0 2 0 0.21 0.00 0.13
Charlie Cresswell DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.11 0.13 0.13
Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.23
Guillaume Restes GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Rasmus Nicolaisen DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.09
Logan Costa DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.52 0.61
Frank Magri FW 88 0 0 3 0 0.26 0.00 0.09
Warren Kamanzi DMR 88 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Niklas Schmidt MC 63 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.07 0.09
Aron Dønnum DML 63 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.09
Gabriel Suazo Sub 27 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.06 0.01
Vincent Sierro Sub 27 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.16 0.01
Naatan Skyttä Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Djibril Sidibe Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Nantes

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Matthis Abline FW 90 0 0 4 2 0.20 0.05 0.23
Jean-Charles Castelletto DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.12
Douglas Augusto DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.06 0.24
Sorba Thomas AMR 90 0 0 1 2 0.06 0.17 0.12
Alban Lafont GK 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.07
Pedro Chirivella DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Kelvin Adou DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.24
Nathan Zeze DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Tinotenda Kadewere AMC 85 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.21
Moses Simon AML 77 0 0 2 0 0.07 0.00 0.19
Marcus Coco DR 77 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.14
Mostafa Mohamed Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jean-Kevin Duverne Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Johann Lepenant Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nicolas Pallois Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bahereba Guirassy Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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