Toulouse v Nice — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
22 – 15
On target
9 – 6
Shots in box
17 – 13
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.32 – 0.10
Goals − xG
+3.23 – -0.42
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Toulouse win
53.0%
Draw
21.6%
Nice win
25.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDDDLDDLD last 10
scored 6
from 11.6 xG
conceded 12
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.63–1.02 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.57–1.07 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Toulouse 1.77 xGNice 1.42 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Toulouse attacking right
Nice attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Nice |
Morgan Sanson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tom Louchet |
| 6' |
 Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Aron Dønnum |
| 10' |
Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 19' |
Toulouse |
Rasmus Nicolaisen | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 20' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Djibril Sidibe |
| 21' |
Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 30' |
Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 32' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pape Diop |
| 32' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 32' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pape Diop |
| 38' |
Nice |
Isak Jansson | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Nice |
Melvin Bard | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
Nice |
Tanguy NDombele Alvaro | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Frank Magri |
| 42' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Djibril Sidibe |
| 44' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Yann Gboho |
| 46' |
Nice |
Isak Jansson | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Tom Louchet |
| 47' |
Nice |
Morgan Sanson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Ali-Cho |
| 48' |
Nice |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 52' |
Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 54' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Frank Magri |
| 59' |
Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 61' |
Nice |
Everton Pereira | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Nice |
Tiago Gouveia | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Melvin Bard |
| 70' |
Nice |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Sepe Elye Wahi |
| 73' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 76' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Julián Vignolo |
| 79' |
Toulouse |
Julián Vignolo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 83' |
Nice |
Jonathan Clauss | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Toulouse |
Noah Edjouma | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 87' |
Toulouse |
Noah Edjouma | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 91' |
Nice |
Kevin Omoruyi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonathan Clauss |
| 92' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Noah Edjouma |
| 93' |
Toulouse |
Julián Vignolo | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Louchet FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.44 |
| Morgan Sanson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Jonathan Clauss DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Juma Bah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Maxime Dupé GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Sepe Elye Wahi FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.13 | 0.97 |
| Melvin Bard DL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| Everton Pereira MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Isak Jansson FWL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Tanguy NDombele Alvaro MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 0.36 |
| Tiago Gouveia Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Kevin Omoruyi Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Ali Abdi Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Charles Vanhoutte Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aron Dønnum DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.58 | 0.96 |
| Rafik Messali DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Djibril Sidibe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Yann Gboho FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.99 |
| Frank Magri FW | 85 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.14 | 0.52 |
| Pape Diop MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Santiago Hidalgo FWR | 78 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Alexis Vossah MC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. Sub | 31 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.05 | 0.31 |
| Julián Vignolo Sub | 12 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Noah Edjouma Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| Mário Sauer Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Seny Koumbassa Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |