Toulouse v Paris Saint Germain — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 December 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Toulouse

14:00 UTC

Paris Saint Germain

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 25 Oct, 11:02 · 987h before kick-off

Toulouse win

22.1%

model 20.1%

Draw

22.2%

model 22.3%

Paris Saint Germain win

55.7%

model 57.6%

222256

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (346 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.6%
0-1 10.4%
1-2 9.9%
0-2 9.8%
1-3 6.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	55.3%	Under 2.5	44.7%
BTTS yes	54.0%	BTTS no	46.0%
Toulouse 1+	63.8%	Toulouse 2+	27.0%
Paris Saint Germain 1+	84.7%	Paris Saint Germain 2+	56.0%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.88. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Paris Saint Germain (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 31%

57.0% fair odds 1.75

strong signal · 1154 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Paris Saint Germain not to win both halves

Win both halves · usually 91%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 588 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger rating, 1852 Elo against 1570.
Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Paris Saint Germain average 2.20 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Paris Saint Germain have an estimated 55.7% win probability, against 22.2% for the draw and 22.1% for Toulouse. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.01 for Toulouse and 1.88 for Paris Saint Germain.

Why Toulouse

At home Toulouse average 2.40 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Paris Saint Germain were missing 1.98 expected goal involvements a match against 0.80.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.2%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Paris Saint Germain can win

Paris Saint Germain carry the stronger rating, 1852 Elo against 1570. Form is good: 3.00 points a match from the last five. Away from home Paris Saint Germain average 2.20 xG a match.

Key players

Toulouse's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Casper Tengstedt (0.41), Thomas Jørgensen (0.35), Emersonn (0.29). Paris Saint Germain's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ousmane Dembélé (0.52), Bradley Barcola (0.46), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (0.44).

Availability

1 of Toulouse's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Toulouse's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Paris Saint Germain's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Paris Saint Germain's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Toulouse: 51% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.34 xG a match from set pieces. Paris Saint Germain: 68% possession, 24.2 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.70 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-25 14:59 · team_stats 2026-10-25 06:07 · availability 2026-10-25 15:02 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Paris Saint Germain are the model's most likely outcome at 55.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.6%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Toulouse have scored 16 from 18.0 expected and conceded 13 from 12.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WWDLDLDWDW last 10 scored 16 from 18.0 xG conceded 13 from 12.2 xG

Paris Saint Germain are finishing below their chances — 3.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.9 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLDDLWWWW last 10 scored 18 from 21.4 xG conceded 11 from 15.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	202258	1.02–1.88	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	222157	1.22–2.09	1-2 10%	64%	62%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win	48.1%	47.4%	31.4%	1.51×	2.11
Toulouse to win	27.8%	27.9%	46.2%	0.60×	3.58
Draw	24.1%	24.5%	22.5%	1.09×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain & not both score	24.1%	21.8%	15.6%	1.40×	4.58
Paris Saint Germain & both teams score	24.0%	21.8%	15.9%	1.37×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	18.6%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Toulouse & both teams score	14.6%	13.3%	22.8%	0.58×	7.53
Toulouse & not both score	13.2%	13.3%	23.6%	0.56×	7.54
Draw & not both score	5.6%	8.3%	6.3%	1.31×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain & over 1.5	38.7%	34.9%	25.3%	1.38×	2.87
Paris Saint Germain & over 2.5	30.9%	30.7%	19.9%	1.55×	3.25
Paris Saint Germain & under 3.5	30.9%	30.7%	20.3%	1.51×	3.25
Toulouse & over 1.5	21.0%	21.6%	36.2%	0.60×	4.63
Toulouse & under 3.5	19.4%	18.0%	29.6%	0.61×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.6%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Toulouse & over 2.5	16.9%	18.0%	28.9%	0.62×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.9%	18.0%	16.1%	1.12×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.9%	18.0%	16.1%	1.12×	5.56
Paris Saint Germain & under 2.5	17.1%	18.0%	11.6%	1.55×	5.56
Paris Saint Germain & over 3.5	17.1%	18.0%	11.2%	1.61×	5.56
Toulouse & under 2.5	10.9%	12.8%	17.5%	0.73×	7.79
Paris Saint Germain & under 1.5	9.3%	7.9%	6.2%	1.28×	12.63
Toulouse & over 3.5	8.4%	7.9%	16.8%	0.47×	12.63
Toulouse & under 1.5	6.8%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.2%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.6%	7.9%	6.3%	1.25×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (1UP)	63.7%	62.9%	49.0%	1.28×	1.59
Toulouse (1UP)	46.3%	43.8%	59.1%	0.74×	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (2UP)	48.1%	50.0%	33.6%	1.49×	2.00
Toulouse (2UP)	27.8%	25.3%	48.2%	0.52×	3.95

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win 2nd half	41.5%	41.8%	27.0%	1.55×	2.39
2nd half drawn	34.0%	34.2%	31.2%	1.09×	2.93
Toulouse to win 2nd half	24.5%	24.2%	42.0%	0.58×	4.13

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 in 2nd half	74.3%	75.7%	82.2%	0.92×	1.32
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.5%	60.2%	50.4%	1.20×	1.66
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.5%	39.8%	49.6%	0.80×	2.52
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 in 2nd half	25.7%	24.3%	17.8%	1.36×	4.12

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.2%	88.3%	75.4%	1.17×	1.13
Toulouse under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.9%	55.1%	37.9%	1.46×	1.82
Toulouse over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.2%	44.9%	62.2%	0.72×	2.23
Toulouse over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.8%	11.7%	24.6%	0.47×	8.57

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (+2.5)	96.3%	96.3%	90.1%	1.07×	1.04
Paris Saint Germain (+1.5)	88.6%	88.5%	75.6%	1.17×	1.13
Paris Saint Germain (+0.5)	72.2%	73.6%	53.8%	1.37×	1.36
Toulouse (+0.5)	51.9%	52.4%	68.6%	0.76×	1.91
Paris Saint Germain (-0.5)	48.1%	47.6%	31.4%	1.52×	2.10
Toulouse (-0.5)	27.8%	26.4%	46.2%	0.57×	3.79
Toulouse (-1.5)	11.4%	11.5%	24.4%	0.47×	8.68
Toulouse (-2.5)	3.7%	3.7%	9.9%	0.37×	27.08

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to concede	70.3%	76.7%	78.2%	0.98×	1.30
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet	29.7%	23.3%	21.8%	1.07×	4.28

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet in 1st half	58.3%	57.1%	51.8%	1.10×	1.75
Paris Saint Germain to concede in 1st half	41.7%	42.9%	48.2%	0.89×	2.33

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain clean sheet in 2nd half	50.9%	54.7%	37.9%	1.44×	1.83
Paris Saint Germain to concede in 2nd half	49.2%	45.3%	62.2%	0.73×	2.21

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 corners	81.8%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Paris Saint Germain under 6.5 corners	69.6%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Paris Saint Germain over 3.5 corners	68.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Paris Saint Germain under 5.5 corners	58.3%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
Paris Saint Germain over 4.5 corners	54.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Paris Saint Germain under 4.5 corners	45.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Paris Saint Germain over 5.5 corners	41.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.33
Paris Saint Germain under 3.5 corners	31.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Paris Saint Germain over 6.5 corners	30.4%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Paris Saint Germain under 2.5 corners	18.2%	18.6%	—	—	5.37

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain under 3.5 goals	91.1%	92.3%	93.7%	0.99×	1.08
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 goals	81.2%	81.5%	70.3%	1.16×	1.23
Paris Saint Germain under 2.5 goals	76.5%	76.2%	84.5%	0.90×	1.31
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 goals	50.2%	53.5%	63.2%	0.85×	1.87
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 goals	49.8%	46.5%	36.8%	1.26×	2.15
Paris Saint Germain over 2.5 goals	23.5%	23.8%	15.5%	1.54×	4.21
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 goals	18.8%	18.5%	29.8%	0.62×	5.40
Paris Saint Germain over 3.5 goals	8.9%	7.7%	6.3%	1.21×	13.05

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain under 1.5 in 1st half	84.7%	83.1%	87.8%	0.95×	1.20
Paris Saint Germain under 0.5 in 1st half	50.1%	55.3%	58.0%	0.95×	1.81
Paris Saint Germain over 0.5 in 1st half	49.9%	44.7%	42.0%	1.07×	2.24
Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 in 1st half	15.3%	16.9%	12.2%	1.38×	5.91

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain scores more in 2nd half	41.2%	43.5%	34.6%	1.26×	2.30
Paris Saint Germain scores equally in both	33.9%	33.3%	40.9%	0.81×	3.01
Paris Saint Germain scores more in 1st half	25.0%	21.9%	24.6%	0.89×	4.57

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (away no bet)	53.5%	51.7%	67.2%	0.77×	1.93
Draw (away no bet)	46.5%	48.3%	32.8%	1.47×	2.07

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain even goals	51.8%	52.6%	55.7%	0.94×	1.90
Paris Saint Germain odd goals	48.2%	47.4%	44.3%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.8%	82.8%	82.6%	1.00×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.2%	17.2%	17.4%	0.99×	5.82

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.0%	68.3%	66.0%	1.04×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	33.0%	31.7%	34.0%	0.93×	3.16

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.9%	55.2%	60.6%	0.91×	1.81
Paris Saint Germain to score 2+ in a row	41.0%	38.6%	28.0%	1.38×	2.59
Toulouse to score 2+ in a row	25.1%	25.0%	38.6%	0.65×	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.0%	19.6%	22.3%	0.88×	5.10
Paris Saint Germain to score 3+ in a row	15.6%	16.2%	9.1%	1.77×	6.18
Toulouse to score 3+ in a row	6.7%	5.5%	13.7%	0.40×	18.13

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain corners (+3.5)	93.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Paris Saint Germain corners (+2.5)	88.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Paris Saint Germain corners (+1.5)	82.2%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Toulouse corners (+3.5)	68.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Toulouse corners (+2.5)	58.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Paris Saint Germain corners (-1.5)	52.4%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Toulouse corners (+1.5)	47.6%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Paris Saint Germain corners (-2.5)	41.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Paris Saint Germain corners (-3.5)	31.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Toulouse corners (-1.5)	17.8%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Toulouse corners (-2.5)	11.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Toulouse corners (-3.5)	6.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	52.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	21.6%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.4%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	78.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	71.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	62.2%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	58.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	52.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	47.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Under 7.5 corners	41.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 9.5 corners	37.8%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 10.5 corners	29.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 11.5 corners	21.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	15.6%	19.3%	—	—	5.17

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.3%	11.5%	9.9%	1.16×	8.72
0-1	9.3%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.51
1-2	9.5%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.51
0-2	7.8%	7.4%	5.6%	1.32×	13.51
1-0	6.8%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.51
2-1	6.9%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.51
0-0	5.6%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.51
1-3	5.3%	7.4%	3.7%	2.01×	13.51
2-2	5.8%	7.4%	5.2%	1.44×	13.51
0-3	4.3%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.29
0-4	1.8%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
1-4	2.2%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
2-0	4.1%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.30
2-3	3.2%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.30
2-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.31
3-0	1.7%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.31
3-1	2.8%	1.7%	6.0%	0.28×	58.30
3-2	2.3%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.31
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.32
4-0	0.5%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.32
4-1	0.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.31
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.4%	3.88×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.82×	58.32
Any other score	3.6%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.30

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (2nd half DNB)	62.9%	62.8%	39.1%	1.61×	1.59
Toulouse (2nd half DNB)	37.1%	37.2%	60.9%	0.61×	2.69

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain leading at HT (DNB)	58.1%	56.4%	45.8%	1.23×	1.77
Toulouse leading at HT (DNB)	41.9%	43.6%	54.2%	0.80×	2.29

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse or Paris Saint Germain (12)	75.9%	75.5%	77.5%	0.98×	1.32
Paris Saint Germain or draw (X2)	72.2%	72.1%	53.8%	1.34×	1.39
Toulouse or draw (1X)	51.9%	52.6%	68.6%	0.77×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw at HT	75.4%	79.4%	66.6%	1.19×	1.26
Toulouse or draw at HT	65.8%	67.1%	71.7%	0.93×	1.49
Toulouse or Paris Saint Germain at HT	58.8%	57.7%	61.6%	0.94×	1.73

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw (1UP)	72.2%	79.5%	61.7%	1.29×	1.26
Toulouse or draw (1UP)	51.9%	58.7%	73.2%	0.80×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain or draw in 2nd half	75.5%	75.8%	58.0%	1.31×	1.32
Toulouse or Paris Saint Germain in 2nd half	66.0%	65.9%	68.8%	0.96×	1.52
Toulouse or draw in 2nd half	58.5%	58.2%	73.0%	0.80×	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.2%	61.3%	57.0%	1.08×	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.8%	38.7%	43.0%	0.90×	2.58

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (DNB)	63.3%	62.7%	40.4%	1.55×	1.60
Toulouse (DNB)	36.7%	37.3%	59.6%	0.63×	2.68

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score first	54.7%	53.5%	43.5%	1.23×	1.87
Toulouse to score first	39.8%	32.9%	50.3%	0.65×	3.04
No goal scored	5.6%	7.4%	6.3%	1.16×	13.55

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.1%	55.0%	54.8%	1.00×	1.82
Not both teams to score	42.9%	45.0%	45.2%	0.99×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	45.8%	44.3%	45.1%	0.98×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	33.6%	34.5%	35.2%	0.98×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	11.3%	12.4%	9.9%	1.25×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	9.3%	8.3%	10.2%	0.82×	12.07

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.9%	82.6%	84.5%	0.98×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	17.1%	17.4%	15.5%	1.13×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.3%	67.2%	69.4%	0.97×	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.7%	32.8%	30.6%	1.07×	3.05

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	54.9%	54.6%	57.1%	0.96×	1.83
Both score 2nd half only	24.3%	21.0%	24.3%	0.87×	4.76
Both score 1st half only	14.4%	10.8%	12.4%	0.87×	9.25
Both score in both halves	6.4%	6.8%	6.5%	1.05×	14.71

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.2%	81.2%	81.3%	1.00×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.8%	18.8%	18.7%	1.00×	5.33

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.3%	57.0%	59.6%	0.96×	1.76
A half without a goal	42.7%	43.0%	40.4%	1.07×	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.6%	47.2%	43.4%	1.09×	2.12
4-6 goals	29.9%	26.6%	30.8%	0.87×	3.76
0-1 goals	21.7%	22.9%	22.4%	1.02×	4.37
7+ goals	2.8%	1.8%	3.7%	0.50×	54.25

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 1	31.4%	33.8%	33.6%	1.01×	2.96
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 2	26.3%	27.4%	21.5%	1.27×	3.65
Paris Saint Germain to score 3+	23.5%	22.3%	15.5%	1.44×	4.49
Paris Saint Germain to score exactly 0	18.8%	19.6%	29.8%	0.66×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to score exactly 1	36.0%	35.6%	31.8%	1.12×	2.81
Toulouse to score exactly 0	29.7%	26.6%	21.8%	1.22×	3.77
Toulouse to score exactly 2	21.9%	23.3%	24.2%	0.97×	4.29
Toulouse to score 3+	12.4%	14.3%	22.5%	0.64×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.2%	42.3%	38.4%	1.10×	2.36
Paris Saint Germain leading at HT	34.2%	33.0%	28.3%	1.17×	3.04
Toulouse leading at HT	24.6%	20.6%	33.4%	0.62×	4.85

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain -1: 1	51.9%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
Paris Saint Germain -1: 2	25.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Paris Saint Germain -1: X	22.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:1)	72.2%	71.0%	53.8%	1.32×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	16.4%	17.8%	21.9%	0.81×	5.61
Toulouse (0:1)	11.4%	13.7%	24.4%	0.56×	7.30

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:2)	88.6%	87.1%	75.6%	1.15×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	7.7%	7.7%	14.7%	0.52×	13.04
Toulouse (0:2)	3.7%	3.8%	9.9%	0.38×	26.66

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:3)	96.3%	96.6%	90.1%	1.07×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.7%	2.4%	5.9%	0.40×	42.11
Toulouse (0:3)	1.0%	2.4%	4.1%	0.57×	42.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (0:4)	99.0%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.8%	1.2%	2.8%	0.44×	82.09
Toulouse (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.5%	0.83×	82.15

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (1:0)	51.9%	54.0%	68.6%	0.79×	1.85
Paris Saint Germain (1:0)	25.5%	25.0%	16.8%	1.49×	4.00
Draw (1:0)	22.6%	21.7%	14.7%	1.47×	4.61

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (2:0)	74.5%	76.7%	83.2%	0.92×	1.30
Draw (2:0)	14.6%	10.3%	9.9%	1.04×	9.71
Paris Saint Germain (2:0)	10.9%	10.3%	7.1%	1.45×	9.74

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.4%	48.7%	48.3%	1.01×	2.05
1st half highest scoring	28.4%	26.2%	25.9%	1.01×	3.81
Halves equal	24.2%	24.4%	25.9%	0.94×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to concede	81.2%	80.9%	70.3%	1.15×	1.24
Toulouse clean sheet	18.8%	19.1%	29.8%	0.64×	5.22

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse clean sheet in 1st half	50.1%	55.3%	58.0%	0.95×	1.81
Toulouse to concede in 1st half	49.9%	44.7%	42.0%	1.07×	2.24

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to concede in 2nd half	62.5%	59.9%	50.4%	1.19×	1.67
Toulouse clean sheet in 2nd half	37.5%	40.1%	49.6%	0.81×	2.49

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse under 6.5 corners	90.3%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
Toulouse under 5.5 corners	83.3%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Toulouse under 4.5 corners	72.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Toulouse over 2.5 corners	60.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Toulouse under 3.5 corners	57.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Toulouse over 3.5 corners	42.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Toulouse under 2.5 corners	39.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Toulouse over 4.5 corners	27.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Toulouse over 5.5 corners	16.7%	19.0%	—	—	5.25
Toulouse over 6.5 corners	9.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse under 3.5 goals	96.5%	96.4%	91.6%	1.05×	1.04
Toulouse under 2.5 goals	87.6%	87.3%	77.5%	1.13×	1.15
Toulouse over 0.5 goals	70.3%	74.2%	78.2%	0.95×	1.35
Toulouse under 1.5 goals	65.7%	67.9%	53.5%	1.27×	1.47
Toulouse over 1.5 goals	34.3%	32.1%	46.5%	0.69×	3.12
Toulouse under 0.5 goals	29.7%	25.8%	21.8%	1.18×	3.88
Toulouse over 2.5 goals	12.4%	12.7%	22.5%	0.57×	7.85
Toulouse over 3.5 goals	3.5%	3.6%	8.4%	0.43×	27.52

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse under 1.5 in 1st half	89.8%	90.3%	87.2%	1.04×	1.11
Toulouse under 0.5 in 1st half	58.3%	56.9%	51.8%	1.10×	1.76
Toulouse over 0.5 in 1st half	41.7%	43.1%	48.2%	0.89×	2.32
Toulouse over 1.5 in 1st half	10.2%	9.7%	12.8%	0.76×	10.27

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse scores equally in both	41.5%	42.0%	36.5%	1.15×	2.38
Toulouse scores more in 2nd half	33.6%	33.2%	40.9%	0.81×	3.01
Toulouse scores more in 1st half	24.9%	21.2%	22.7%	0.93×	4.72

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain (home no bet)	66.6%	64.1%	58.2%	1.10×	1.56
Draw (home no bet)	33.4%	35.9%	41.8%	0.86×	2.79

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse even goals	54.4%	50.7%	51.8%	0.98×	1.97
Toulouse odd goals	45.6%	49.3%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.2%	28.5%	28.6%	1.00×	3.51
HT 0-1	20.2%	24.3%	16.8%	1.45×	4.12
HT 1-0	15.8%	18.5%	21.5%	0.86×	5.41
HT 1-1	10.9%	11.0%	9.4%	1.16×	9.12
HT 0-2	7.0%	6.9%	5.2%	1.34×	14.47
Any other HT score	5.0%	6.9%	4.6%	1.51×	14.50
HT 2-0	4.2%	2.4%	6.8%	0.35×	41.93
HT 1-2	3.8%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	41.96
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.4%	3.2%	0.73×	42.02
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	0.7%	3.22×	42.14

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	27.7%	27.3%	18.9%	1.45×	3.67
Draw at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	17.1%	16.8%	10.9%	1.54×	5.96
Toulouse at HT / Toulouse at FT	16.0%	16.8%	27.7%	0.61×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.0%	12.7%	12.7%	1.00×	7.90
Draw at HT / Toulouse at FT	10.1%	12.6%	15.2%	0.83×	7.92
Toulouse at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.1%	4.1%	1.47×	16.49
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	6.0%	0.58×	28.80
Toulouse at HT / Paris Saint Germain at FT	3.2%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.85
Paris Saint Germain at HT / Toulouse at FT	1.8%	3.5%	3.7%	0.94×	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to score last	54.7%	52.2%	40.9%	1.28×	1.92
Toulouse to score last	39.8%	38.9%	53.0%	0.73×	2.57
No goal scored	5.6%	7.4%	6.3%	1.16×	13.55

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.4%	92.7%	93.7%	0.99×	1.08
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 1 at any time	63.7%	61.3%	49.0%	1.25×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.3%	44.4%	51.5%	0.86×	2.25
Toulouse to lead by 1 at any time	46.3%	44.4%	59.1%	0.75×	2.26
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 2 at any time	32.4%	29.8%	21.7%	1.37×	3.36
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	18.5%	14.9%	19.8%	0.75×	6.71
Toulouse to lead by 2 at any time	17.1%	14.9%	29.9%	0.50×	6.72
Paris Saint Germain to lead by 3 at any time	13.4%	10.5%	8.3%	1.27×	9.50
Toulouse to lead by 3 at any time	5.1%	6.6%	11.7%	0.57×	15.06

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain most corners	63.5%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Toulouse most corners	26.3%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	10.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.1%	87.4%	85.3%	1.03×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.8%	78.7%	76.9%	1.02×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.5%	78.7%	74.1%	1.06×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.0%	72.3%	69.2%	1.05×	1.38
1-3 goals	61.7%	63.3%	59.5%	1.06×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	60.8%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	52.3%	53.2%	51.5%	1.03×	1.88
3-5 goals	47.8%	48.5%	46.7%	1.04×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.6%	48.5%	43.4%	1.12×	2.06
1-2 goals	39.3%	39.2%	38.7%	1.01×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.5%	39.2%	38.3%	1.02×	2.55
4-6 goals	29.9%	30.2%	30.8%	0.98×	3.31
4-5 goals	25.5%	30.2%	25.9%	1.17×	3.31
5-6 goals	13.8%	14.8%	13.4%	1.11×	6.75
7+ goals	2.8%	2.6%	3.7%	0.69×	39.13

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain never behind	48.1%	56.6%	40.9%	1.39×	1.77
Toulouse never behind	30.7%	36.1%	51.0%	0.71×	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.9%	47.9%	1.06×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.1%	52.1%	0.94×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.8%	51.5%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.2%	48.5%	1.00×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.8%	51.9%	50.1%	1.04×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.2%	48.1%	49.9%	0.96×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.4%	92.3%	93.7%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.7%	92.3%	91.5%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	83.4%	82.3%	83.1%	0.99×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	78.3%	77.3%	77.6%	1.00×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	67.3%	66.3%	65.7%	1.01×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	55.1%	58.6%	55.1%	1.06×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	44.9%	41.4%	44.9%	0.92×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	32.7%	33.7%	34.3%	0.98×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	21.7%	22.7%	22.4%	1.01×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	16.6%	17.7%	16.9%	1.04×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	7.3%	7.7%	8.5%	0.90×	12.95
Under 0.5 goals	5.6%	7.7%	6.3%	1.22×	12.96

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.1%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	92.0%	92.4%	90.7%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	80.2%	81.1%	79.5%	1.02×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	71.8%	72.4%	71.1%	1.02×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.8%	55.8%	56.7%	0.98×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	42.2%	44.2%	43.3%	1.02×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	28.2%	27.6%	28.9%	0.96×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	19.8%	18.9%	20.5%	0.92×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.0%	7.6%	9.3%	0.81×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.9%	2.8%	3.9%	0.73×	35.58

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.3%	89.0%	87.5%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.8%	71.4%	71.4%	1.00×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.2%	68.5%	66.6%	1.03×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.8%	31.5%	33.4%	0.94×	3.17
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.2%	28.6%	28.6%	1.00×	3.49
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.7%	11.0%	12.5%	0.88×	9.10

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.9%	82.9%	81.9%	1.01×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	76.9%	79.7%	75.3%	1.06×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	50.7%	53.2%	50.1%	1.06×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	49.3%	46.8%	49.9%	0.94×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	23.1%	20.3%	24.7%	0.82×	4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.1%	17.1%	18.1%	0.94×	5.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse not to score in both halves	79.5%	78.6%	67.9%	1.16×	1.27
Paris Saint Germain not to score in both halves	68.8%	70.1%	77.9%	0.90×	1.43
Paris Saint Germain to score in both halves	31.2%	29.9%	22.1%	1.35×	3.35
Toulouse to score in both halves	20.5%	21.4%	32.1%	0.67×	4.68

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	57.1%	58.7%	54.8%	1.07×	1.71
Only Paris Saint Germain scores	24.1%	22.3%	15.6%	1.43×	4.49
Only Toulouse scores	13.2%	11.0%	23.6%	0.47×	9.06
Neither team scores	5.6%	7.1%	6.3%	1.12×	14.05

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.2%	22.6%	22.7%	1.00×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	20.9%	1.08×	4.43
Exactly 1 goals	16.1%	17.5%	16.2%	1.08×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	16.1%	17.5%	17.5%	1.00×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.3%	7.6%	8.5%	0.89×	13.14
6 or more goals	7.3%	7.6%	8.5%	0.89×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	5.6%	7.6%	6.3%	1.20×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	37.3%	38.1%	0.98×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	29.2%	28.6%	28.6%	1.00×	3.50
2 goals in 1st half	22.1%	21.5%	21.1%	1.02×	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	12.7%	10.9%	12.5%	0.87×	9.18

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	49.3%	44.9%	49.9%	0.90×	2.23
1 goal in 2nd half	31.6%	33.7%	32.1%	1.05×	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	19.1%	16.7%	18.1%	0.92×	5.97

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse not to win both halves	94.0%	94.2%	83.7%	1.13×	1.06
Paris Saint Germain not to win both halves	85.8%	87.9%	90.7%	0.97×	1.14
Paris Saint Germain to win both halves	14.2%	12.1%	9.3%	1.30×	8.27
Toulouse to win both halves	6.0%	5.8%	16.3%	0.36×	17.16

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Paris Saint Germain to win either half	61.5%	64.9%	46.0%	1.41×	1.54
Toulouse to win neither half	56.9%	59.1%	40.9%	1.44×	1.69
Toulouse to win either half	43.1%	40.9%	59.1%	0.69×	2.45
Paris Saint Germain to win neither half	38.5%	35.1%	54.1%	0.65×	2.85

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse not to win to nil	86.8%	88.1%	76.4%	1.15×	1.14
Paris Saint Germain not to win to nil	75.9%	78.1%	84.4%	0.93×	1.28
Paris Saint Germain to win to nil	24.1%	21.9%	15.6%	1.40×	4.56
Toulouse to win to nil	13.2%	11.9%	23.6%	0.50×	8.41

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.1%	24.1%	22.5%	1.07×	4.15
Paris Saint Germain by 1	22.6%	24.1%	14.7%	1.64×	4.15
Toulouse by 1	16.4%	17.0%	21.9%	0.78×	5.87
Paris Saint Germain by 2	14.6%	11.8%	9.9%	1.19×	8.51
Paris Saint Germain by 3+	10.9%	11.7%	7.1%	1.66×	8.51
Toulouse by 2	7.7%	7.2%	14.7%	0.49×	13.90
Toulouse by 3+	3.7%	2.7%	9.9%	0.28×	36.82