Toulouse v Rennes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 November 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Toulouse

14:00 UTC

Rennes

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 24 Oct, 10:57 · 843h before kick-off

Toulouse win

45.3%

model 43.3%

Draw

23.8%

model 24.0%

Rennes win

30.9%

model 32.7%

452431

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (624 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.1%
2-1 9.0%
1-0 8.0%
1-2 7.7%
0-1 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.1%	Under 2.5	41.9%
BTTS yes	60.3%	BTTS no	39.7%
Toulouse 1+	80.4%	Toulouse 2+	48.5%
Rennes 1+	75.0%	Rennes 2+	40.4%

Expected goals 1.63 – 1.39. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

87/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

92%

★ Best pick

2-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 74%

78.8% fair odds 1.27

moderate signal · 2624 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 88%

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 383 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Toulouse have created 1.79 xG a match over their last five while Rennes have allowed 2.31.
At home Toulouse average 2.40 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Rennes were missing 1.38 expected goal involvements a match against 0.80.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Toulouse have an estimated 45.3% win probability, against 30.9% for Rennes and 23.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.63 for Toulouse and 1.39 for Rennes.

Why Toulouse

Toulouse have created 1.79 xG a match over their last five while Rennes have allowed 2.31. At home Toulouse average 2.40 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Rennes were missing 1.38 expected goal involvements a match against 0.80.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.8%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.63 to 1.39. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Rennes can win

Rennes carry the stronger rating, 1646 Elo against 1570. Rennes have created 2.12 xG a match over their last five while Toulouse have allowed 1.22. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Away from home Rennes average 2.14 xG a match.

Key players

Toulouse's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Casper Tengstedt (0.42), Thomas Jørgensen (0.35), Emersonn (0.29). Rennes's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Esteban Lepaul (0.58), Ronaldo (0.41), Timur Suleymanov (0.35).

Availability

1 of Toulouse's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Toulouse's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Rennes's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Rennes's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Toulouse: 51% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.34 xG a match from set pieces. Rennes: 53% possession, 16.6 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.17 xG a match from set pieces. Toulouse's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-24 13:59 · team_stats 2026-10-24 06:04 · availability 2026-10-24 14:57 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Toulouse are the model's most likely outcome at 45.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.1%. Confidence 87/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Toulouse have scored 16 from 18.0 expected and conceded 13 from 12.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WWDLDLDWDW last 10 scored 16 from 18.0 xG conceded 13 from 12.2 xG

Rennes have scored 20 from 21.3 expected and conceded 22 from 23.1 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWLDWWWLWL last 10 scored 20 from 21.3 xG conceded 22 from 23.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	432433	1.63–1.39	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	512326	1.83–1.24	1-1 11%	59%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to win	50.5%	51.4%	46.2%	1.11×	1.94
Rennes to win	26.9%	27.9%	31.4%	0.89×	3.58
Draw	22.6%	24.5%	22.5%	1.09×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse & both teams score	27.6%	25.2%	22.8%	1.10×	3.97
Toulouse & not both score	22.9%	21.8%	23.6%	0.93×	4.58
Draw & both teams score	18.4%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Rennes & both teams score	15.6%	18.0%	15.9%	1.13×	5.57
Rennes & not both score	11.3%	13.3%	15.6%	0.85×	7.54
Draw & not both score	4.2%	4.9%	6.3%	0.77×	20.53

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse & over 1.5	42.7%	40.2%	36.2%	1.11×	2.49
Toulouse & over 2.5	35.4%	34.9%	28.9%	1.21×	2.87
Toulouse & under 3.5	29.2%	26.1%	29.6%	0.88×	3.84
Toulouse & over 3.5	21.3%	21.6%	16.8%	1.29×	4.63
Rennes & over 1.5	21.4%	21.6%	25.3%	0.85×	4.63
Draw & over 1.5	18.4%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Rennes & over 2.5	17.8%	18.0%	19.9%	0.91×	5.56
Rennes & under 3.5	17.3%	18.0%	20.3%	0.89×	5.56
Toulouse & under 2.5	15.1%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.4%	12.8%	16.1%	0.80×	7.79
Draw & under 3.5	14.4%	12.8%	16.1%	0.80×	7.79
Rennes & under 2.5	9.1%	7.9%	11.6%	0.68×	12.63
Rennes & over 3.5	9.6%	7.9%	11.2%	0.71×	12.63
Toulouse & under 1.5	7.8%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	8.2%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	8.2%	7.9%	6.6%	1.19×	12.63
Rennes & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	6.2%	1.28×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.2%	4.8%	6.3%	0.76×	20.81

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (1UP)	66.8%	70.1%	59.1%	1.19×	1.43
Rennes (1UP)	46.8%	43.9%	49.0%	0.90×	2.28

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (2UP)	50.5%	54.8%	48.2%	1.14×	1.82
Rennes (2UP)	26.9%	25.2%	33.6%	0.75×	3.96

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to win 2nd half	44.8%	42.0%	42.0%	1.00×	2.38
2nd half drawn	32.3%	34.1%	31.2%	1.09×	2.93
Rennes to win 2nd half	22.9%	24.2%	27.0%	0.90×	4.14

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes under 1.5 in 2nd half	85.1%	86.7%	82.2%	1.05×	1.15
Rennes under 0.5 in 2nd half	50.6%	52.6%	49.6%	1.06×	1.90
Rennes over 0.5 in 2nd half	49.4%	47.4%	50.4%	0.94×	2.11
Rennes over 1.5 in 2nd half	14.9%	13.3%	17.8%	0.75×	7.51

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse under 1.5 in 2nd half	70.6%	74.2%	75.4%	0.98×	1.35
Toulouse over 0.5 in 2nd half	66.1%	70.7%	62.2%	1.14×	1.42
Toulouse under 0.5 in 2nd half	33.9%	29.3%	37.9%	0.77×	3.41
Toulouse over 1.5 in 2nd half	29.4%	25.8%	24.6%	1.05×	3.88

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (+2.5)	86.9%	88.5%	90.1%	0.98×	1.13
Toulouse (+0.5)	73.1%	73.7%	68.6%	1.07×	1.36
Rennes (+1.5)	71.6%	73.6%	75.6%	0.97×	1.36
Toulouse (-0.5)	50.5%	52.4%	46.2%	1.13×	1.91
Rennes (+0.5)	49.5%	47.6%	53.8%	0.89×	2.10
Toulouse (-1.5)	28.4%	26.4%	24.4%	1.08×	3.79
Rennes (-0.5)	26.9%	26.3%	31.4%	0.84×	3.80
Toulouse (-2.5)	13.1%	11.5%	9.9%	1.17×	8.67

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to concede	84.5%	81.6%	78.2%	1.04×	1.23
Rennes clean sheet	15.5%	18.4%	21.8%	0.85×	5.43

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to concede in 1st half	54.3%	50.6%	48.2%	1.05×	1.98
Rennes clean sheet in 1st half	45.7%	49.4%	51.8%	0.95×	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to concede in 2nd half	66.1%	65.7%	62.2%	1.06×	1.52
Rennes clean sheet in 2nd half	33.9%	34.3%	37.9%	0.91×	2.92

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes over 2.5 corners	79.6%	76.1%	—	—	1.32
Rennes under 6.5 corners	72.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Rennes over 3.5 corners	65.8%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Rennes under 5.5 corners	61.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Rennes over 4.5 corners	51.4%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Rennes under 4.5 corners	48.6%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Rennes over 5.5 corners	38.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Rennes under 3.5 corners	34.2%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
Rennes over 6.5 corners	27.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Rennes under 2.5 corners	20.4%	23.9%	—	—	4.18

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes under 3.5 goals	95.6%	97.5%	93.7%	1.04×	1.03
Rennes under 2.5 goals	85.6%	87.8%	84.5%	1.04×	1.14
Rennes over 0.5 goals	72.9%	71.8%	70.3%	1.02×	1.39
Rennes under 1.5 goals	62.5%	63.2%	63.2%	1.00×	1.58
Rennes over 1.5 goals	37.5%	36.8%	36.8%	1.00×	2.72
Rennes under 0.5 goals	27.1%	28.2%	29.8%	0.95×	3.55
Rennes over 2.5 goals	14.4%	12.2%	15.5%	0.79×	8.19
Rennes over 3.5 goals	4.4%	2.5%	6.3%	0.40×	39.84

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes under 1.5 in 1st half	87.0%	89.4%	87.8%	1.02×	1.12
Rennes under 0.5 in 1st half	53.6%	55.5%	58.0%	0.96×	1.80
Rennes over 0.5 in 1st half	46.4%	44.5%	42.0%	1.06×	2.25
Rennes over 1.5 in 1st half	13.0%	10.6%	12.2%	0.87×	9.42

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes scores equally in both	39.9%	37.5%	40.9%	0.92×	2.66
Rennes scores more in 2nd half	31.8%	33.2%	34.6%	0.96×	3.01
Rennes scores more in 1st half	28.3%	26.7%	24.6%	1.08×	3.75

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (away no bet)	69.1%	66.4%	67.2%	0.99×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	30.9%	33.6%	32.8%	1.03×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes even goals	53.7%	52.6%	55.7%	0.94×	1.90
Rennes odd goals	46.3%	47.4%	44.3%	1.07×	2.11

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	78.4%	81.3%	82.6%	0.98×	1.23
Both halves over 1.5 goals	21.6%	18.7%	17.4%	1.08×	5.34

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	72.1%	67.6%	66.0%	1.03×	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	27.9%	32.4%	34.0%	0.95×	3.09

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.9%	60.0%	60.6%	0.99×	1.67
Toulouse to score 2+ in a row	45.9%	46.0%	38.6%	1.19×	2.17
Rennes to score 2+ in a row	26.9%	25.0%	28.0%	0.89×	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.8%	25.0%	22.3%	1.12×	4.00
Toulouse to score 3+ in a row	18.8%	16.2%	13.7%	1.18×	6.16
Rennes to score 3+ in a row	7.4%	5.5%	9.1%	0.61×	18.07

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse corners (+3.5)	82.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Rennes corners (+3.5)	77.8%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Toulouse corners (+2.5)	76.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Rennes corners (+2.5)	70.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Toulouse corners (+1.5)	67.8%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Rennes corners (+1.5)	61.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Toulouse corners (-1.5)	38.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Rennes corners (-1.5)	32.2%	34.1%	—	—	2.93
Toulouse corners (-2.5)	29.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Rennes corners (-2.5)	24.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Toulouse corners (-3.5)	22.2%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Rennes corners (-3.5)	17.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	36.6%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
0-8 corners	35.7%	34.0%	—	—	2.94
9-11 corners	27.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	73.5%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	71.2%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	64.3%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Under 11.5 corners	63.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	54.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 10.5 corners	54.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	45.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 10.5 corners	45.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Over 11.5 corners	36.6%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 8.5 corners	35.7%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Over 12.5 corners	28.8%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Under 7.5 corners	26.5%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.2%	11.5%	9.9%	1.16×	8.72
2-1	9.5%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.51
1-0	7.8%	7.4%	10.2%	0.73×	13.51
1-2	6.7%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.51
2-0	7.3%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.51
0-1	5.5%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.51
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	5.2%	1.44×	13.51
3-1	5.9%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.51
Any other score	5.2%	7.4%	5.2%	1.44×	13.51
0-0	4.2%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.30
0-2	3.6%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.30
0-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.31
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.32
1-3	2.9%	1.7%	3.7%	0.47×	58.30
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
2-3	2.7%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.30
2-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.31
3-0	4.5%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.29
3-2	3.9%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.30
3-3	1.7%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
3-4	0.6%	1.7%	0.7%	2.33×	58.32
4-0	2.1%	1.7%	1.8%	0.97×	58.31
4-1	2.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.30
4-2	1.8%	1.7%	1.5%	1.16×	58.31
4-3	0.8%	1.7%	0.4%	3.88×	58.31
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.82×	58.32

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (2nd half DNB)	66.2%	66.6%	60.9%	1.09×	1.50
Rennes (2nd half DNB)	33.8%	33.4%	39.1%	0.85×	2.99

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse leading at HT (DNB)	57.6%	56.3%	54.2%	1.04×	1.78
Rennes leading at HT (DNB)	42.4%	43.7%	45.8%	0.95×	2.29

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse or Rennes (12)	77.4%	75.5%	77.5%	0.98×	1.32
Toulouse or draw (1X)	73.1%	72.1%	68.6%	1.05×	1.39
Rennes or draw (X2)	49.5%	48.6%	53.8%	0.90×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse or draw at HT	73.7%	74.8%	71.7%	1.04×	1.34
Rennes or draw at HT	64.3%	61.0%	66.6%	0.92×	1.64
Toulouse or Rennes at HT	62.0%	60.9%	61.6%	0.99×	1.64

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse or draw (1UP)	73.1%	79.6%	73.2%	1.09×	1.26
Rennes or draw (1UP)	49.5%	53.5%	61.7%	0.87×	1.87

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse or draw in 2nd half	77.1%	75.8%	73.0%	1.04×	1.32
Toulouse or Rennes in 2nd half	67.7%	65.9%	68.8%	0.96×	1.52
Rennes or draw in 2nd half	55.2%	58.0%	58.0%	1.00×	1.72

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.0%	58.7%	57.0%	1.03×	1.70
Neither half drawn	42.0%	41.3%	43.0%	0.96×	2.42

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (DNB)	65.3%	67.3%	59.6%	1.13×	1.49
Rennes (DNB)	34.7%	32.7%	40.4%	0.81×	3.06

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to score first	56.3%	62.1%	50.3%	1.24×	1.61
Rennes to score first	39.5%	32.9%	43.5%	0.76×	3.04
No goal scored	4.2%	4.3%	6.3%	0.68×	23.02

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.6%	56.6%	54.8%	1.03×	1.77
Not both teams to score	38.4%	43.4%	45.2%	0.96×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	51.4%	47.2%	45.1%	1.05×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	28.4%	33.3%	35.2%	0.95×	3.00
Both score & under 2.5	10.2%	12.4%	9.9%	1.25×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	10.0%	8.3%	10.2%	0.82×	12.06

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.1%	79.8%	84.5%	0.94×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.9%	20.2%	15.5%	1.31×	4.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	67.3%	67.1%	69.4%	0.97×	1.49
Both teams to score in 2nd half	32.7%	32.9%	30.6%	1.07×	3.04

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	50.4%	54.3%	57.1%	0.95×	1.84
Both score 2nd half only	24.4%	21.0%	24.3%	0.87×	4.76
Both score 1st half only	17.0%	15.0%	12.4%	1.21×	6.66
Both score in both halves	8.2%	6.8%	6.5%	1.06×	14.62

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	74.8%	79.9%	81.3%	0.98×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	25.2%	20.1%	18.7%	1.08×	4.97

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	62.6%	59.6%	59.6%	1.00×	1.68
A half without a goal	37.4%	40.4%	40.4%	1.00×	2.48

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	43.4%	42.2%	43.4%	0.97×	2.37
4-6 goals	34.8%	30.8%	30.8%	1.00×	3.25
0-1 goals	17.5%	20.2%	22.4%	0.90×	4.95
7+ goals	4.3%	1.8%	3.7%	0.50×	54.10

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes to score exactly 1	35.4%	35.9%	33.6%	1.07×	2.78
Rennes to score exactly 0	27.1%	27.4%	29.8%	0.92×	3.65
Rennes to score exactly 2	23.1%	22.3%	21.5%	1.04×	4.49
Rennes to score 3+	14.4%	12.9%	15.5%	0.83×	7.75

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to score exactly 1	28.9%	26.6%	31.8%	0.83×	3.77
Toulouse to score 3+	28.7%	26.6%	22.5%	1.18×	3.77
Toulouse to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.5%	24.2%	1.10×	3.77
Toulouse to score exactly 0	15.5%	18.7%	21.8%	0.86×	5.34

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	38.0%	39.1%	38.4%	1.02×	2.56
Toulouse leading at HT	35.7%	39.0%	33.4%	1.17×	2.56
Rennes leading at HT	26.3%	25.2%	28.3%	0.89×	3.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse -1: 2	49.5%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Toulouse -1: 1	28.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Toulouse -1: X	22.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (0:1)	49.5%	46.2%	53.8%	0.86×	2.16
Toulouse (0:1)	28.4%	27.0%	24.4%	1.11×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	22.1%	24.2%	21.9%	1.10×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (0:2)	71.6%	75.6%	75.6%	1.00×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.4%	15.2%	14.7%	1.04×	6.56
Toulouse (0:2)	13.1%	11.0%	9.9%	1.11×	9.10

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (0:3)	86.9%	90.6%	90.1%	1.01×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.1%	5.8%	5.9%	0.99×	17.22
Toulouse (0:3)	5.0%	2.4%	4.1%	0.58×	42.01

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (0:4)	95.0%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.4%	1.2%	2.8%	0.44×	81.79
Toulouse (0:4)	1.6%	1.2%	1.5%	0.83×	81.99

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (1:0)	73.1%	72.4%	68.6%	1.06×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	15.5%	17.1%	14.7%	1.16×	5.85
Rennes (1:0)	11.4%	12.7%	16.8%	0.76×	7.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse (2:0)	88.6%	88.5%	83.2%	1.06×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.5%	6.4%	9.9%	0.65×	15.67
Rennes (2:0)	3.8%	2.3%	7.1%	0.32×	43.65

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.0%	48.7%	48.3%	1.01×	2.06
1st half highest scoring	30.8%	27.7%	25.9%	1.07×	3.62
Halves equal	23.2%	24.4%	25.9%	0.94×	4.10

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to concede	72.9%	73.1%	70.3%	1.04×	1.37
Toulouse clean sheet	27.1%	26.9%	29.8%	0.90×	3.72

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse clean sheet in 1st half	53.6%	55.5%	58.0%	0.96×	1.80
Toulouse to concede in 1st half	46.4%	44.5%	42.0%	1.06×	2.25

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse clean sheet in 2nd half	50.6%	52.7%	49.6%	1.06×	1.90
Toulouse to concede in 2nd half	49.4%	47.3%	50.4%	0.94×	2.12

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse over 2.5 corners	82.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Toulouse over 3.5 corners	70.0%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Toulouse under 6.5 corners	68.2%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Toulouse under 5.5 corners	56.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Toulouse over 4.5 corners	56.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Toulouse under 4.5 corners	43.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Toulouse over 5.5 corners	43.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Toulouse over 6.5 corners	31.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Toulouse under 3.5 corners	30.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Toulouse under 2.5 corners	17.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse under 3.5 goals	88.1%	87.3%	91.6%	0.95×	1.15
Toulouse over 0.5 goals	84.5%	82.2%	78.2%	1.05×	1.22
Toulouse under 2.5 goals	71.3%	74.2%	77.5%	0.96×	1.35
Toulouse over 1.5 goals	55.6%	58.6%	46.5%	1.26×	1.71
Toulouse under 1.5 goals	44.4%	41.4%	53.5%	0.77×	2.42
Toulouse over 2.5 goals	28.7%	25.8%	22.5%	1.14×	3.88
Toulouse under 0.5 goals	15.5%	17.8%	21.8%	0.81×	5.63
Toulouse over 3.5 goals	11.9%	12.7%	8.4%	1.52×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse under 1.5 in 1st half	81.5%	83.7%	87.2%	0.96×	1.19
Toulouse over 0.5 in 1st half	54.3%	50.4%	48.2%	1.05×	1.98
Toulouse under 0.5 in 1st half	45.7%	49.6%	51.8%	0.96×	2.02
Toulouse over 1.5 in 1st half	18.5%	16.3%	12.8%	1.27×	6.15

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse scores more in 2nd half	42.2%	42.1%	40.9%	1.03×	2.38
Toulouse scores equally in both	31.7%	33.2%	36.5%	0.91×	3.02
Toulouse scores more in 1st half	26.1%	27.8%	22.7%	1.23×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes (home no bet)	54.3%	51.4%	58.2%	0.88×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	45.7%	48.6%	41.8%	1.16×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse even goals	51.2%	50.7%	51.8%	0.98×	1.97
Toulouse odd goals	48.8%	49.3%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	24.5%	24.4%	28.6%	0.85×	4.11
HT 1-0	19.2%	18.5%	21.5%	0.86×	5.40
HT 0-1	15.3%	18.5%	16.8%	1.10×	5.42
HT 1-1	12.0%	11.0%	9.4%	1.16×	9.11
HT 2-0	7.5%	6.9%	6.8%	1.02×	14.46
Any other HT score	6.9%	6.9%	4.6%	1.51×	14.47
HT 0-2	4.8%	2.4%	5.2%	0.46×	41.90
HT 2-1	4.7%	2.4%	3.2%	0.74×	41.90
HT 1-2	3.7%	2.4%	4.4%	0.54×	41.96
HT 2-2	1.5%	2.4%	0.7%	3.22×	42.11

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse at HT / Toulouse at FT	29.6%	27.4%	27.7%	0.99×	3.65
Draw at HT / Toulouse at FT	17.0%	16.8%	15.2%	1.11×	5.96
Rennes at HT / Rennes at FT	16.5%	16.8%	18.9%	0.89×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.3%	12.6%	12.7%	1.00×	7.91
Draw at HT / Rennes at FT	8.7%	6.1%	10.9%	0.56×	16.40
Rennes at HT / Draw at FT	5.9%	6.1%	6.0%	1.01×	16.48
Toulouse at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	4.1%	0.84×	28.81
Rennes at HT / Toulouse at FT	3.9%	3.5%	3.7%	0.94×	28.83
Toulouse at HT / Rennes at FT	1.7%	3.5%	1.9%	1.81×	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to score last	56.3%	56.3%	53.0%	1.06×	1.78
Rennes to score last	39.5%	38.9%	40.9%	0.95×	2.57
No goal scored	4.2%	4.3%	6.3%	0.68×	23.02

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.8%	95.6%	93.7%	1.02×	1.05
Toulouse to lead by 1 at any time	66.8%	69.4%	59.1%	1.17×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	53.6%	50.8%	51.5%	0.99×	1.97
Rennes to lead by 1 at any time	46.8%	44.4%	49.0%	0.91×	2.25
Toulouse to lead by 2 at any time	36.2%	34.6%	29.9%	1.16×	2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.7%	19.5%	19.8%	0.99×	5.12
Rennes to lead by 2 at any time	17.8%	14.9%	21.7%	0.69×	6.71
Toulouse to lead by 3 at any time	16.1%	14.9%	11.7%	1.28×	6.73
Rennes to lead by 3 at any time	5.6%	6.6%	8.3%	0.80×	15.04

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse most corners	48.5%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Rennes most corners	41.6%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	9.9%	8.4%	—	—	11.98

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.6%	87.4%	85.3%	1.03×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.2%	78.7%	74.1%	1.06×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.4%	72.4%	76.9%	0.94×	1.38
2-5 goals	72.3%	72.4%	69.2%	1.05×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.1%	63.3%	60.8%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	57.1%	59.1%	51.5%	1.15×	1.69
1-3 goals	56.7%	59.1%	59.5%	0.99×	1.69
3-5 goals	51.2%	53.2%	46.7%	1.14×	1.88
2-3 goals	43.4%	43.6%	43.4%	1.00×	2.29
3-4 goals	40.0%	39.2%	38.3%	1.02×	2.55
4-6 goals	34.8%	35.2%	30.8%	1.14×	2.84
1-2 goals	34.4%	35.2%	38.7%	0.91×	2.84
4-5 goals	28.9%	30.2%	25.9%	1.17×	3.31
5-6 goals	17.1%	18.8%	13.4%	1.41×	5.31
7+ goals	4.3%	2.6%	3.7%	0.70×	39.06

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse never behind	49.0%	56.7%	51.0%	1.11×	1.76
Rennes never behind	29.0%	30.1%	40.9%	0.74×	3.32

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	47.9%	1.06×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	52.1%	0.94×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.0%	51.8%	51.5%	1.00×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	47.0%	48.2%	48.5%	1.00×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.5%	51.9%	50.1%	1.04×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.5%	48.1%	49.9%	0.96×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.8%	95.4%	93.7%	1.02×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	89.8%	87.6%	91.5%	0.96×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	82.5%	82.3%	77.6%	1.06×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	78.6%	77.3%	83.1%	0.93×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	61.4%	61.7%	55.1%	1.12×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	60.9%	61.7%	65.7%	0.94×	1.62
Over 3.5 goals	39.1%	38.3%	34.3%	1.12×	2.61
Under 2.5 goals	38.6%	38.3%	44.9%	0.85×	2.61
Over 4.5 goals	21.4%	22.7%	16.9%	1.34×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	17.5%	17.7%	22.4%	0.79×	5.66
Over 5.5 goals	10.2%	12.4%	8.5%	1.45×	8.06
Under 0.5 goals	4.2%	4.6%	6.3%	0.72×	21.83

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.5%	97.2%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	88.5%	86.7%	90.7%	0.96×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.8%	75.9%	71.1%	1.07×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	74.0%	72.4%	79.5%	0.91×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	50.3%	51.9%	43.3%	1.20×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	49.7%	48.1%	56.7%	0.85×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	26.0%	27.6%	20.5%	1.35×	3.62
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	22.2%	24.1%	28.9%	0.83×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	11.5%	13.3%	9.3%	1.42×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.5%	2.8%	3.9%	0.73×	35.54

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	83.2%	85.8%	87.5%	0.98×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 1st half	75.5%	78.4%	71.4%	1.10×	1.28
Under 1.5 in 1st half	58.9%	63.9%	66.6%	0.96×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	41.1%	36.1%	33.4%	1.08×	2.77
Under 0.5 in 1st half	24.5%	21.6%	28.6%	0.76×	4.64
Over 2.5 in 1st half	16.8%	14.2%	12.5%	1.13×	7.04

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.9%	83.0%	81.9%	1.01×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.0%	77.6%	75.3%	1.03×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.6%	53.3%	49.9%	1.07×	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.4%	46.7%	50.1%	0.93×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.0%	22.4%	24.7%	0.90×	4.47
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.1%	17.0%	18.1%	0.94×	5.87

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes not to score in both halves	77.0%	78.5%	77.9%	1.01×	1.27
Toulouse not to score in both halves	64.1%	63.3%	67.9%	0.93×	1.58
Toulouse to score in both halves	35.9%	36.7%	32.1%	1.14×	2.73
Rennes to score in both halves	23.0%	21.5%	22.1%	0.97×	4.66

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.6%	60.2%	54.8%	1.10×	1.66
Only Toulouse scores	22.9%	22.3%	23.6%	0.95×	4.49
Only Rennes scores	11.3%	11.0%	15.6%	0.71×	9.07
Neither team scores	4.2%	4.6%	6.3%	0.73×	21.61

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.3%	22.6%	20.9%	1.08×	4.43
Exactly 2 goals	21.1%	22.6%	22.7%	1.00×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	17.7%	17.5%	17.5%	1.00×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	13.3%	12.1%	16.2%	0.75×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	11.2%	12.1%	8.5%	1.42×	8.25
6 or more goals	10.2%	12.1%	8.5%	1.42×	8.25
Exactly 0 goals	4.2%	4.5%	6.3%	0.71×	22.36

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	34.5%	35.7%	38.1%	0.94×	2.80
No goals in 1st half	24.5%	21.5%	28.6%	0.75×	4.65
2 goals in 1st half	24.2%	21.5%	21.1%	1.02×	4.65
3+ goals in 1st half	16.8%	15.6%	12.5%	1.24×	6.42

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	52.6%	51.5%	49.9%	1.03×	1.94
1 goal in 2nd half	30.2%	33.7%	32.1%	1.05×	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	17.1%	16.7%	18.1%	0.92×	6.00

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes not to win both halves	94.0%	94.2%	90.7%	1.04×	1.06
Toulouse not to win both halves	84.0%	83.9%	83.7%	1.00×	1.19
Toulouse to win both halves	16.0%	16.1%	16.3%	0.99×	6.21
Rennes to win both halves	6.0%	5.8%	9.3%	0.63×	17.16

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Toulouse to win either half	64.5%	65.0%	59.1%	1.10×	1.54
Rennes to win neither half	56.8%	59.1%	54.1%	1.09×	1.69
Rennes to win either half	43.2%	40.9%	46.0%	0.89×	2.45
Toulouse to win neither half	35.5%	35.0%	40.9%	0.85×	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Rennes not to win to nil	88.7%	88.1%	84.4%	1.04×	1.14
Toulouse not to win to nil	77.1%	78.1%	76.4%	1.02×	1.28
Toulouse to win to nil	22.9%	21.9%	23.6%	0.93×	4.57
Rennes to win to nil	11.3%	11.9%	15.6%	0.76×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.6%	24.1%	22.5%	1.07×	4.15
Toulouse by 1	22.1%	24.1%	21.9%	1.10×	4.15
Rennes by 1	15.5%	17.0%	14.7%	1.16×	5.87
Toulouse by 2	15.4%	17.0%	14.7%	1.16×	5.87
Toulouse by 3+	13.1%	11.8%	9.9%	1.19×	8.51
Rennes by 2	7.5%	7.2%	9.9%	0.73×	13.91
Rennes by 3+	3.8%	2.7%	7.1%	0.38×	36.81