Toulouse v Strasbourg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 6 December 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 5.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.47–1.28 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.62–1.29 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Expected goals by minute
Reading the shot map
Shot map
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Strasbourg |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Diego Moreira |
| 10' |
 Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 17' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 17' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 31' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 31' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 65' |
Strasbourg |
Kendry Páez | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Strasbourg |
Samir El Mourabet | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yann Gboho |
Players
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Enciso AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Samir El Mourabet MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mamadou Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Joaquín Panichelli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ismaël Doukouré MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Chilwell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego Moreira DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Guela Doué DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastian Nanasi AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrew Omobamidele DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kendry Páez Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathis Amougou Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martial Godo Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djibril Sidibe DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dayann Methalie DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexis Vossah MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yann Gboho AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| Emersonn FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Frank Magri AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Rafik Messali Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Hidalgo Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |