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Tromso v Hamarkameratene — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · NOR-Eliteserien · 2627

NOR-Eliteserien results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Tromso win
60.7%
model 62.7%
Draw
21.1%
model 21.6%
Hamarkameratene win
18.2%
model 15.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (245 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 10.6%
  2. 1-1 10.2%
  3. 2-1 9.9%
  4. 1-0 9.7%
  5. 3-0 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.557.7% Under 2.542.3%
BTTS yes53.8% BTTS no46.2%
Tromso 1+87.3% Tromso 2+61.1%
Hamarkameratene 1+61.0% Hamarkameratene 2+24.3%

Expected goals 2.06 – 0.94. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
77/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Draw (home no bet)
Home no bet · usually 39%
56.1% fair odds 1.78
strong signal · 4795 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Tromso (+0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 69%
83.1% fair odds 1.20
strong signal · 13561 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Tromso carry the stronger rating, 1630 Elo against 1484.
  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Tromso have an estimated 60.7% win probability, against 21.1% for the draw and 18.2% for Hamarkameratene. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.06 for Tromso and 0.94 for Hamarkameratene.

Why Tromso

Tromso carry the stronger rating, 1630 Elo against 1484. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.1%. Draws run at 20% in this competition.

Why Hamarkameratene can win

Nothing in the data singles out Hamarkameratene.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Tromso, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Hamarkameratene, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Tromso: 49% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Hamarkameratene: 54% possession, 11.4 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-08 10:52 · team_stats 2026-09-08 06:03 · availability 2026-09-08 11:54 · prediction 2026-09-08 11:44 ·

Tromso are the model's most likely outcome at 60.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 10.6%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.06–0.94 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.14–0.83 2-0 12% 57% 50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso to win 66.8% 65.9% 49.0% 1.35× 1.52
Draw 20.3% 24.6% 19.9% 1.23× 4.07
Hamarkameratene to win 12.9% 13.6% 31.3% 0.43× 7.34
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso & not both score 37.8% 32.8% 24.1% 1.36× 3.04
Tromso & both teams score 29.1% 25.5% 25.1% 1.01× 3.93
Draw & both teams score 14.6% 13.2% 15.0% 0.88× 7.55
Hamarkameratene & both teams score 6.8% 8.4% 16.8% 0.50× 11.95
Hamarkameratene & not both score 6.1% 8.4% 14.8% 0.57× 11.95
Draw & not both score 5.7% 8.4% 5.2% 1.62× 11.95
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso & over 1.5 56.4% 54.5% 41.2% 1.32× 1.84
Tromso & over 2.5 44.7% 40.0% 34.7% 1.15× 2.50
Tromso & under 3.5 40.2% 40.0% 28.0% 1.43× 2.50
Tromso & over 3.5 26.6% 25.9% 21.2% 1.22× 3.86
Tromso & under 2.5 22.1% 21.6% 14.5% 1.49× 4.63
Draw & under 2.5 15.3% 18.0% 14.5% 1.24× 5.57
Draw & under 3.5 15.3% 18.0% 14.5% 1.24× 5.57
Draw & over 1.5 14.6% 12.9% 15.0% 0.86× 7.77
Tromso & under 1.5 10.4% 12.9% 8.0% 1.60× 7.78
Hamarkameratene & over 1.5 9.2% 8.0% 26.4% 0.30× 12.56
Hamarkameratene & under 3.5 9.8% 8.0% 19.4% 0.41× 12.56
Hamarkameratene & over 2.5 7.4% 8.0% 21.5% 0.37× 12.56
Draw & under 1.5 5.7% 8.0% 5.2% 1.54× 12.57
Hamarkameratene & under 2.5 5.5% 8.0% 10.1% 0.79× 12.57
Draw & over 2.5 5.0% 4.9% 5.7% 0.86× 20.52
Draw & over 3.5 5.0% 4.9% 5.7% 0.86× 20.52
Hamarkameratene & under 1.5 3.7% 4.9% 5.2% 0.94× 20.53
Hamarkameratene & over 3.5 3.1% 4.9% 12.2% 0.40× 20.53
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso (1UP) 77.5% 78.8% 1.27
Hamarkameratene (1UP) 30.0% 32.4% 3.08
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso (2UP) 66.8% 68.7% 1.46
Hamarkameratene (2UP) 12.9% 13.4% 7.46
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso to win 2nd half 54.0% 52.5% 1.90
2nd half drawn 31.0% 34.5% 2.90
Hamarkameratene to win 2nd half 15.0% 18.8% 5.31
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso (+0.5) 87.1% 88.3% 68.7% 1.29× 1.13
Hamarkameratene (+2.5) 77.1% 78.3% 85.5% 0.92× 1.28
Tromso (-0.5) 66.8% 68.7% 49.0% 1.40× 1.46
Hamarkameratene (+1.5) 56.7% 56.9% 72.0% 0.79× 1.76
Tromso (-1.5) 43.3% 43.1% 28.0% 1.54× 2.32
Hamarkameratene (+0.5) 33.2% 31.3% 51.0% 0.61× 3.20
Tromso (-2.5) 22.9% 21.7% 14.5% 1.50× 4.61
Hamarkameratene (-0.5) 12.9% 11.7% 31.3% 0.37× 8.58
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamarkameratene to concede 88.2% 86.2% 80.3% 1.07× 1.16
Hamarkameratene clean sheet 11.8% 13.8% 19.7% 0.70× 7.26
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamarkameratene to concede in 1st half 60.2% 64.6% 1.55
Hamarkameratene clean sheet in 1st half 39.8% 35.4% 2.83
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamarkameratene under 6.5 corners 88.8% 85.2% 1.17
Hamarkameratene under 5.5 corners 80.7% 81.4% 1.23
Hamarkameratene under 4.5 corners 68.9% 67.6% 1.48
Hamarkameratene over 2.5 corners 65.2% 67.5% 1.48
Hamarkameratene under 3.5 corners 53.1% 53.0% 1.89
Hamarkameratene over 3.5 corners 46.9% 47.0% 2.13
Hamarkameratene under 2.5 corners 34.8% 32.5% 3.08
Hamarkameratene over 4.5 corners 31.1% 32.4% 3.08
Hamarkameratene over 5.5 corners 19.3% 18.6% 5.37
Hamarkameratene over 6.5 corners 11.2% 14.8% 6.76
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamarkameratene under 3.5 goals 99.0% 97.4% 93.5% 1.04× 1.03
Hamarkameratene under 2.5 goals 94.8% 92.2% 82.6% 1.12× 1.09
Hamarkameratene under 1.5 goals 79.7% 76.1% 63.0% 1.21× 1.31
Hamarkameratene over 0.5 goals 56.6% 59.0% 71.0% 0.83× 1.70
Hamarkameratene under 0.5 goals 43.4% 41.0% 29.0% 1.41× 2.44
Hamarkameratene over 1.5 goals 20.3% 23.9% 37.0% 0.64× 4.19
Hamarkameratene over 2.5 goals 5.2% 7.8% 17.4% 0.45× 12.81
Hamarkameratene over 3.5 goals 1.0% 2.6% 6.5% 0.40× 38.87
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamarkameratene under 1.5 in 1st half 95.5% 95.6% 1.05
Hamarkameratene under 0.5 in 1st half 71.6% 68.4% 1.46
Hamarkameratene over 0.5 in 1st half 28.4% 31.6% 3.17
Hamarkameratene over 1.5 in 1st half 4.5% 4.4% 22.91
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso (away no bet) 76.7% 74.0% 71.1% 1.04× 1.35
Draw (away no bet) 23.3% 26.0% 28.9% 0.90× 3.85
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamarkameratene even goals 59.4% 56.9% 52.9% 1.08× 1.76
Hamarkameratene odd goals 40.6% 43.1% 47.2% 0.91× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 81.7% 82.9% 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 18.3% 17.1% 5.86
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 68.9% 68.6% 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 31.1% 31.4% 3.19
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 64.2% 60.0% 1.67
Tromso to score 2+ in a row 56.4% 55.1% 1.82
Either team to score 3+ in a row 30.0% 25.1% 3.98
Tromso to score 3+ in a row 27.9% 25.1% 3.99
Hamarkameratene to score 2+ in a row 13.0% 12.2% 8.22
Hamarkameratene to score 3+ in a row 2.3% 2.6% 39.21
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso corners (+3.5) 93.0% 89.6% 1.12
Tromso corners (+2.5) 88.5% 84.5% 1.18
Tromso corners (+1.5) 82.0% 79.8% 1.25
Hamarkameratene corners (+3.5) 68.7% 65.8% 1.52
Hamarkameratene corners (+2.5) 58.6% 57.1% 1.75
Tromso corners (-1.5) 52.3% 52.5% 1.91
Hamarkameratene corners (+1.5) 47.7% 47.5% 2.10
Tromso corners (-2.5) 41.4% 42.9% 2.33
Tromso corners (-3.5) 31.3% 34.2% 2.93
Hamarkameratene corners (-1.5) 18.0% 20.2% 4.95
Hamarkameratene corners (-2.5) 11.5% 15.5% 6.45
Hamarkameratene corners (-3.5) 7.0% 10.4% 9.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 47.1% 41.7% 2.40
9-11 corners 28.2% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 24.7% 25.6% 3.91
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 82.0% 80.7% 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 75.3% 76.5% 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 67.1% 67.7% 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 63.8% 63.3% 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 57.6% 57.9% 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 52.9% 53.2% 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 47.1% 46.8% 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 42.4% 42.1% 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 36.2% 36.7% 2.73
Over 10.5 corners 32.9% 32.3% 3.10
Over 11.5 corners 24.7% 23.5% 4.26
Over 12.5 corners 18.0% 19.3% 5.18
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-0 11.7% 11.4% 6.7% 1.69× 8.80
1-0 10.4% 11.4% 8.0% 1.41× 8.81
1-1 9.7% 7.4% 9.6% 0.77× 13.53
2-1 9.8% 7.4% 9.8% 0.75× 13.53
3-0 8.3% 7.4% 4.1% 1.78× 13.54
3-1 7.0% 7.4% 6.2% 1.19× 13.54
Any other score 6.7% 7.4% 7.3% 1.02× 13.54
0-0 5.7% 7.4% 5.2% 1.43× 13.54
2-2 4.1% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 57.56
2-3 1.1% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 57.57
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.34× 57.58
3-2 2.9% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 57.57
3-3 0.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 57.58
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.35× 57.58
4-0 4.5% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 57.56
4-1 3.7% 1.7% 2.9% 0.61× 57.56
4-2 1.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.34× 57.57
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.5% 3.35× 57.58
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.35× 57.58
0-1 3.7% 1.7% 5.2% 0.34× 57.56
0-2 1.8% 1.7% 5.2% 0.34× 57.57
0-3 0.5% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 57.58
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.35× 57.58
1-2 3.8% 1.7% 6.2% 0.28× 57.56
1-3 1.1% 1.7% 3.1% 0.56× 57.57
1-4 0.2% 1.7% 2.1% 0.84× 57.58
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso leading at HT (DNB) 79.1% 78.1% 1.28
Hamarkameratene leading at HT (DNB) 20.9% 21.9% 4.57
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso or draw (1X) 87.1% 86.4% 68.7% 1.26× 1.16
Tromso or Hamarkameratene (12) 79.7% 75.4% 80.1% 0.94× 1.33
Hamarkameratene or draw (X2) 33.2% 34.1% 51.0% 0.67× 2.94
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso or draw at HT 87.1% 88.1% 1.14
Tromso or Hamarkameratene at HT 61.8% 62.0% 1.61
Hamarkameratene or draw at HT 51.1% 47.6% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso or draw (1UP) 87.1% 91.7% 1.09
Hamarkameratene or draw (1UP) 33.2% 38.9% 2.57
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso or draw in 2nd half 85.0% 81.2% 1.23
Tromso or Hamarkameratene in 2nd half 69.0% 65.5% 1.53
Hamarkameratene or draw in 2nd half 46.0% 47.5% 2.11
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 56.7% 58.0% 1.73
Neither half drawn 43.3% 42.0% 2.38
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso (DNB) 83.8% 80.4% 61.0% 1.32× 1.24
Hamarkameratene (DNB) 16.2% 19.6% 39.0% 0.50× 5.10
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso to score first 67.9% 69.4% 1.44
Hamarkameratene to score first 26.5% 28.1% 3.56
No goal scored 5.7% 7.4% 13.44
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 50.5% 51.6% 56.5% 0.91× 1.94
Not both teams to score 49.5% 48.4% 43.5% 1.11× 2.07
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 40.8% 41.7% 47.2% 0.88× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 33.3% 34.4% 29.3% 1.17× 2.91
Not both score & over 2.5 16.3% 21.3% 14.5% 1.47× 4.69
Both score & under 2.5 9.7% 8.4% 9.6% 0.87× 11.93
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 87.2% 85.4% 83.4% 1.02× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 12.8% 14.6% 16.6% 0.88× 6.85
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 72.1% 74.0% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.9% 26.0% 3.85
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 59.7% 59.5% 1.68
Both score 2nd half only 23.2% 20.9% 4.79
Both score 1st half only 12.4% 10.7% 9.33
Both score in both halves 4.7% 5.1% 19.76
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.8% 82.5% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 17.2% 17.5% 5.70
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 58.9% 57.4% 1.74
A half without a goal 41.1% 42.6% 2.35
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.6% 46.9% 43.8% 1.07× 2.13
4-6 goals 31.5% 30.9% 35.5% 0.87× 3.24
0-1 goals 19.8% 20.3% 17.9% 1.13× 4.94
7+ goals 3.2% 1.9% 3.4% 0.55× 53.81
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamarkameratene to score exactly 0 43.4% 37.2% 29.0% 1.28× 2.69
Hamarkameratene to score exactly 1 36.2% 35.8% 34.2% 1.05× 2.80
Hamarkameratene to score exactly 2 15.1% 19.5% 19.9% 0.98× 5.12
Hamarkameratene to score 3+ 5.2% 8.8% 17.4% 0.50× 11.43
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso to score 3+ 36.1% 35.5% 26.7% 1.33× 2.81
Tromso to score exactly 2 26.9% 26.1% 25.9% 1.01× 3.83
Tromso to score exactly 1 25.2% 26.1% 28.2% 0.93× 3.83
Tromso to score exactly 0 11.8% 14.3% 19.7% 0.73× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso leading at HT 48.9% 52.4% 1.91
Draw at HT 38.2% 38.0% 2.63
Hamarkameratene leading at HT 12.9% 11.9% 8.42
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso -1: 1 43.3% 42.9% 2.33
Tromso -1: 2 33.2% 29.3% 3.42
Tromso -1: X 23.5% 23.7% 4.23
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso (0:1) 43.3% 42.6% 28.0% 1.52× 2.35
Hamarkameratene (0:1) 33.2% 29.4% 51.0% 0.58× 3.40
Draw (0:1) 23.5% 24.4% 21.2% 1.15× 4.10
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamarkameratene (0:2) 56.7% 63.3% 72.0% 0.88× 1.58
Tromso (0:2) 22.9% 20.0% 14.5% 1.38× 5.00
Draw (0:2) 20.4% 20.0% 13.7% 1.45× 5.01
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamarkameratene (0:3) 77.1% 80.4% 85.5% 0.94× 1.24
Draw (0:3) 12.8% 10.1% 7.0% 1.44× 9.94
Tromso (0:3) 10.1% 10.0% 7.8% 1.29× 9.98
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamarkameratene (0:4) 89.9% 91.7% 92.2% 0.99× 1.09
Draw (0:4) 6.3% 4.8% 4.7% 1.04× 20.72
Tromso (0:4) 3.8% 1.2% 3.4% 0.36× 81.57
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso (1:0) 87.1% 86.2% 68.7% 1.26× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 8.8% 7.0% 14.8% 0.47× 14.28
Hamarkameratene (1:0) 4.0% 3.5% 16.8% 0.21× 28.70
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso (2:0) 96.0% 96.5% 83.2% 1.16× 1.04
Draw (2:0) 3.1% 2.4% 9.1% 0.27× 41.32
Hamarkameratene (2:0) 0.9% 2.4% 8.0% 0.30× 41.43
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.9% 48.2% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 27.6% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 24.5% 24.1% 4.15
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso to concede 56.6% 60.7% 71.0% 0.86× 1.65
Tromso clean sheet 43.4% 39.3% 29.0% 1.35× 2.55
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso clean sheet in 1st half 71.6% 67.9% 1.47
Tromso to concede in 1st half 28.4% 32.1% 3.12
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso over 2.5 corners 84.6% 81.0% 1.24
Tromso over 3.5 corners 72.2% 71.9% 1.39
Tromso under 6.5 corners 67.3% 66.7% 1.50
Tromso over 4.5 corners 58.3% 57.6% 1.74
Tromso under 5.5 corners 55.3% 57.6% 1.74
Tromso over 5.5 corners 44.7% 42.4% 2.36
Tromso under 4.5 corners 41.7% 42.4% 2.36
Tromso over 6.5 corners 32.7% 33.3% 3.01
Tromso under 3.5 corners 27.8% 28.1% 3.56
Tromso under 2.5 corners 15.4% 19.0% 5.26
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso over 0.5 goals 88.2% 87.2% 80.3% 1.09× 1.15
Tromso under 3.5 goals 83.1% 81.9% 87.6% 0.94× 1.22
Tromso under 2.5 goals 63.9% 63.3% 73.3% 0.86× 1.58
Tromso over 1.5 goals 63.0% 63.3% 52.3% 1.21× 1.58
Tromso under 1.5 goals 37.0% 36.7% 47.7% 0.77× 2.73
Tromso over 2.5 goals 36.1% 36.7% 26.7% 1.38× 2.73
Tromso over 3.5 goals 16.9% 18.1% 12.4% 1.45× 5.53
Tromso under 0.5 goals 11.8% 12.8% 19.7% 0.65× 7.81
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso under 1.5 in 1st half 76.5% 77.1% 1.30
Tromso over 0.5 in 1st half 60.2% 64.5% 1.55
Tromso under 0.5 in 1st half 39.8% 35.5% 2.81
Tromso over 1.5 in 1st half 23.5% 22.9% 4.36
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 61.2% 59.9% 38.9% 1.54× 1.67
Hamarkameratene (home no bet) 38.8% 40.1% 61.1% 0.66× 2.49
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso even goals 50.7% 50.4% 53.9% 0.94× 1.98
Tromso odd goals 49.3% 49.6% 46.1% 1.08× 2.02
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 28.6% 28.9% 3.46
HT 1-0 26.2% 28.8% 3.47
HT 2-0 12.1% 10.9% 9.15
HT 0-1 9.4% 7.1% 13.99
HT 1-1 8.9% 7.1% 14.00
Any other HT score 7.1% 7.1% 14.03
HT 2-1 4.0% 2.3% 43.41
HT 0-2 1.6% 2.3% 43.59
HT 1-2 1.5% 2.3% 43.60
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.3% 43.66
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso at HT / Tromso at FT 43.6% 43.4% 2.30
Draw at HT / Tromso at FT 20.3% 21.7% 4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.5% 12.7% 7.90
Hamarkameratene at HT / Hamarkameratene at FT 6.4% 6.0% 16.70
Draw at HT / Hamarkameratene at FT 5.5% 6.0% 16.72
Tromso at HT / Draw at FT 4.2% 3.5% 28.76
Hamarkameratene at HT / Draw at FT 3.7% 3.5% 28.78
Hamarkameratene at HT / Tromso at FT 2.9% 3.5% 28.81
Tromso at HT / Hamarkameratene at FT 1.1% 3.5% 28.88
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso to score last 68.0% 70.3% 1.42
Hamarkameratene to score last 26.3% 26.9% 3.72
No goal scored 5.7% 7.4% 13.44
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.3% 92.7% 1.08
Tromso to lead by 1 at any time 77.5% 78.2% 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 56.7% 55.1% 1.82
Tromso to lead by 2 at any time 49.4% 44.0% 2.27
Hamarkameratene to lead by 1 at any time 30.0% 29.3% 3.42
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 27.3% 25.5% 3.93
Tromso to lead by 3 at any time 25.8% 25.4% 3.93
Hamarkameratene to lead by 2 at any time 7.5% 6.6% 15.10
Hamarkameratene to lead by 3 at any time 1.5% 1.6% 62.88
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso most corners 63.4% 60.5% 1.65
Hamarkameratene most corners 26.5% 31.1% 3.22
Corners level 10.1% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.2% 87.4% 87.0% 1.00× 1.14
2-6 goals 77.0% 78.5% 79.0% 0.99× 1.27
1-4 goals 76.3% 78.5% 73.1% 1.07× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.1% 72.2% 74.4% 0.97× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.2% 63.1% 60.4% 1.05× 1.58
1-3 goals 59.7% 59.3% 56.5% 1.05× 1.69
3-6 goals 53.9% 53.4% 58.3% 0.92× 1.87
3-5 goals 49.0% 48.5% 53.6% 0.90× 2.06
2-3 goals 45.6% 48.4% 43.8% 1.11× 2.06
3-4 goals 39.1% 39.3% 39.6% 0.99× 2.55
1-2 goals 37.3% 39.3% 33.7% 1.17× 2.55
4-6 goals 31.5% 35.3% 35.5% 1.00× 2.83
4-5 goals 26.6% 30.6% 30.8% 0.99× 3.26
5-6 goals 14.8% 15.1% 18.9% 0.80× 6.64
7+ goals 3.2% 2.6% 3.4% 0.76× 38.87
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso never behind 64.3% 67.8% 1.48
Hamarkameratene never behind 16.9% 18.6% 5.39
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.8% 50.9% 51.6% 0.99× 1.96
Even number of goals 51.2% 49.1% 48.4% 1.01× 2.04
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.3% 51.7% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.7% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.0% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.0% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.3% 92.2% 94.8% 0.97× 1.09
Under 5.5 goals 91.9% 92.2% 92.0% 1.00× 1.09
Under 4.5 goals 82.0% 82.1% 78.0% 1.05× 1.22
Over 1.5 goals 80.2% 82.1% 82.1% 1.00× 1.22
Under 3.5 goals 65.3% 66.0% 61.4% 1.07× 1.52
Over 2.5 goals 57.1% 58.5% 61.4% 0.95× 1.71
Under 2.5 goals 42.9% 41.5% 38.6% 1.08× 2.41
Over 3.5 goals 34.7% 34.0% 38.6% 0.88× 2.94
Under 1.5 goals 19.8% 17.9% 17.9% 1.00× 5.60
Over 4.5 goals 18.0% 17.9% 22.0% 0.81× 5.60
Over 5.5 goals 8.1% 7.8% 8.0% 0.97× 12.81
Under 0.5 goals 5.7% 7.8% 5.2% 1.50× 12.83
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.6% 97.1% 96.5% 1.01× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 91.0% 92.4% 90.7% 1.02× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 78.4% 75.8% 73.6% 1.03× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 74.3% 72.3% 77.5% 0.93× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 55.3% 55.2% 50.0% 1.10× 1.81
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 44.7% 44.8% 50.0% 0.90× 2.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 25.7% 27.7% 22.5% 1.23× 3.61
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 21.6% 24.2% 26.4% 0.91× 4.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 9.0% 7.6% 9.3% 0.82× 13.12
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.4% 2.9% 3.5% 0.81× 35.06
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 86.8% 89.0% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 71.4% 71.2% 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 64.2% 63.6% 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 35.8% 36.4% 2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half 28.6% 28.8% 3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half 13.2% 11.0% 9.07
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 81.9% 82.7% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 75.2% 79.7% 1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 51.5% 53.3% 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 48.5% 46.7% 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 24.8% 20.3% 4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 18.1% 17.3% 5.80
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamarkameratene not to score in both halves 88.8% 85.9% 1.16
Tromso not to score in both halves 57.6% 57.6% 1.74
Tromso to score in both halves 42.4% 42.4% 2.36
Hamarkameratene to score in both halves 11.2% 14.1% 7.10
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 50.5% 54.2% 56.5% 0.96× 1.84
Only Tromso scores 37.8% 39.7% 24.1% 1.65× 2.52
Only Hamarkameratene scores 6.1% 7.1% 14.8% 0.48× 14.03
Neither team scores 5.7% 7.1% 5.2% 1.38× 14.03
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.1% 22.4% 21.0% 1.07× 4.46
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.4% 23.1% 0.97× 4.46
Exactly 4 goals 16.7% 17.6% 16.8% 1.04× 5.70
Exactly 1 goals 14.1% 12.0% 13.0% 0.93× 8.30
Exactly 5 goals 9.9% 7.8% 14.2% 0.55× 12.82
6 or more goals 8.1% 7.8% 8.0% 0.97× 12.83
Exactly 0 goals 5.7% 7.8% 5.2% 1.50× 12.84
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 51.5% 51.4% 1.95
1 goal in 2nd half 30.4% 33.3% 3.01
No goals in 2nd half 18.1% 17.3% 5.80
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamarkameratene not to win both halves 98.0% 97.3% 1.03
Tromso not to win both halves 73.5% 72.9% 1.37
Tromso to win both halves 26.5% 27.1% 3.69
Hamarkameratene to win both halves 2.0% 2.7% 36.44
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso to win either half 76.3% 79.6% 1.26
Hamarkameratene to win neither half 74.0% 73.0% 1.37
Hamarkameratene to win either half 26.0% 27.0% 3.70
Tromso to win neither half 23.7% 20.4% 4.90
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Hamarkameratene not to win to nil 93.9% 92.1% 85.2% 1.08× 1.09
Tromso not to win to nil 62.2% 67.0% 75.9% 0.88× 1.49
Tromso to win to nil 37.8% 33.0% 24.1% 1.37× 3.03
Hamarkameratene to win to nil 6.1% 7.9% 14.8% 0.54× 12.65
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromso by 1 23.5% 24.2% 21.2% 1.14× 4.14
Tromso by 3+ 22.9% 24.2% 14.5% 1.67× 4.14
Tromso by 2 20.4% 24.2% 13.7% 1.76× 4.14
Draw 20.3% 24.2% 19.9% 1.21× 4.14
Hamarkameratene by 1 8.8% 7.3% 14.8% 0.49× 13.73
Hamarkameratene by 2 3.1% 2.8% 9.1% 0.31× 35.53
Hamarkameratene by 3+ 0.9% 2.8% 8.0% 0.35× 35.59
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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