Troyes v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 10 October 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627

Ligue 1 xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 06:09 UTC

Troyes

13:00 UTC

Marseille

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 9 Sep, 11:32 · 745h before kick-off

Troyes win

27.8%

model 27.4%

Draw

22.5%

model 24.7%

Marseille win

49.7%

model 47.9%

282250

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.7%
0-1 10.1%
1-2 9.4%
0-2 8.1%
1-0 7.3%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.3%	Under 2.5	47.7%
BTTS yes	54.9%	BTTS no	45.1%
Troyes 1+	68.6%	Troyes 2+	32.2%
Marseille 1+	80.0%	Marseille 2+	47.9%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.61. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

91/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Marseille (2nd half DNB)

DNB 2nd half · usually 39%

66.7% fair odds 1.50

strong signal · 251 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Troyes to concede

Home clean sheet · usually 70%

84.2% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 270 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Marseille average 1.81 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Marseille have an estimated 49.7% win probability, against 27.8% for Troyes and 22.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.16 for Troyes and 1.61 for Marseille.

Why Troyes

Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Marseille were missing 1.29 expected goal involvements a match against 0.24.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.5%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Marseille can win

Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Away from home Marseille average 1.81 xG a match.

Key players

Troyes's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Renaud Ripart (0.39), Kandet Diawara (0.21), Antoine Mille (0.21). Marseille's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (0.59), Mason Greenwood (0.56), Amine Gouiri (0.53).

Availability

1 of Troyes's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Marseille's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Troyes: 46% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 11.6 faced, 0.35 xG a match from set pieces. Marseille: 60% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.10 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-09 15:30 · team_stats 2026-09-09 06:03 · availability 2026-09-09 15:32 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Marseille are the model's most likely outcome at 49.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

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Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Marseille are finishing sharply below their chances — 8.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

LWLDLWWWLL last 10 scored 15 from 23.2 xG conceded 15 from 16.6 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	272548	1.16–1.61	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	292150	1.61–2.14	1-2 9%	72%	71%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to win	47.9%	49.2%	31.8%	1.54×	2.03
Troyes to win	27.4%	27.6%	45.6%	0.60×	3.63
Draw	24.7%	22.3%	22.8%	0.98×	4.49

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille & not both score	25.1%	26.1%	16.1%	1.62×	3.83
Marseille & both teams score	22.7%	22.7%	15.9%	1.43×	4.41
Draw & both teams score	18.4%	17.8%	16.4%	1.09×	5.61
Troyes & both teams score	13.7%	12.1%	22.0%	0.55×	8.24
Troyes & not both score	13.7%	12.1%	23.7%	0.51×	8.24
Draw & not both score	6.3%	7.3%	6.6%	1.11×	13.73

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille & over 1.5	37.8%	37.6%	25.6%	1.47×	2.66
Marseille & under 3.5	32.0%	33.1%	20.7%	1.59×	3.03
Marseille & over 2.5	29.6%	25.6%	20.0%	1.28×	3.91
Troyes & over 1.5	20.2%	21.5%	35.7%	0.60×	4.66
Troyes & under 3.5	19.9%	17.6%	28.9%	0.61×	5.68
Draw & over 1.5	18.4%	17.6%	16.4%	1.08×	5.68
Marseille & under 2.5	18.2%	17.6%	12.0%	1.47×	5.68
Draw & under 2.5	18.0%	17.6%	16.5%	1.06×	5.68
Draw & under 3.5	18.0%	17.6%	16.5%	1.06×	5.68
Troyes & over 2.5	16.0%	17.6%	28.2%	0.62×	5.68
Marseille & over 3.5	15.8%	17.6%	11.2%	1.57×	5.68
Troyes & under 2.5	11.5%	12.7%	17.5%	0.73×	7.88
Marseille & under 1.5	10.1%	12.7%	6.4%	1.98×	7.88
Troyes & over 3.5	7.6%	7.5%	16.8%	0.45×	13.34
Troyes & under 1.5	7.3%	7.5%	10.0%	0.75×	13.34
Draw & over 2.5	6.7%	7.5%	6.4%	1.17×	13.34
Draw & over 3.5	6.7%	7.5%	6.4%	1.17×	13.34
Draw & under 1.5	6.3%	7.5%	6.6%	1.14×	13.35

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (1UP)	63.0%	64.0%	49.6%	1.29×	1.56
Troyes (1UP)	45.3%	44.4%	58.0%	0.76×	2.25

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (2UP)	47.9%	49.5%	34.2%	1.45×	2.02
Troyes (2UP)	27.4%	30.9%	47.1%	0.66×	3.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to win 2nd half	44.0%	39.5%	26.8%	1.47×	2.53
2nd half drawn	35.0%	33.8%	31.2%	1.08×	2.96
Troyes to win 2nd half	21.0%	22.2%	42.1%	0.53×	4.51

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 1.5 in 2nd half	74.6%	78.2%	83.3%	0.94×	1.28
Marseille over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.2%	61.0%	49.8%	1.23×	1.64
Marseille under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.8%	39.0%	50.2%	0.78×	2.57
Marseille over 1.5 in 2nd half	25.4%	21.8%	16.7%	1.30×	4.59

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.7%	87.9%	75.4%	1.17×	1.14
Troyes under 0.5 in 2nd half	56.4%	58.7%	38.2%	1.54×	1.70
Troyes over 0.5 in 2nd half	43.6%	41.3%	61.8%	0.67×	2.42
Troyes over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.3%	12.1%	24.6%	0.49×	8.26

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (+2.5)	96.6%	97.2%	90.0%	1.08×	1.03
Marseille (+1.5)	89.1%	89.1%	75.0%	1.19×	1.12
Marseille (+0.5)	72.6%	73.1%	54.4%	1.34×	1.37
Troyes (+0.5)	52.1%	51.8%	68.2%	0.76×	1.93
Marseille (-0.5)	47.9%	48.2%	31.8%	1.51×	2.08
Troyes (-0.5)	27.4%	26.9%	45.6%	0.59×	3.72
Troyes (-1.5)	10.9%	10.9%	25.0%	0.44×	9.16
Troyes (-2.5)	3.4%	2.8%	10.0%	0.29×	35.12

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to concede	68.6%	71.5%	77.5%	0.92×	1.40
Marseille clean sheet	31.4%	28.5%	22.5%	1.27×	3.51

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille clean sheet in 1st half	55.6%	60.2%	52.3%	1.15×	1.66
Marseille to concede in 1st half	44.4%	39.8%	47.7%	0.83×	2.52

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille clean sheet in 2nd half	56.4%	59.1%	38.2%	1.55×	1.69
Marseille to concede in 2nd half	43.6%	40.9%	61.8%	0.66×	2.44

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 6.5 corners	89.0%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Marseille under 5.5 corners	81.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Marseille under 4.5 corners	70.5%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Marseille over 2.5 corners	62.3%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Marseille under 3.5 corners	55.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Marseille over 3.5 corners	44.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Marseille under 2.5 corners	37.7%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Marseille over 4.5 corners	29.5%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Marseille over 5.5 corners	18.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.37
Marseille over 6.5 corners	11.0%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 3.5 goals	92.0%	92.8%	93.4%	0.99×	1.08
Marseille over 0.5 goals	80.0%	81.7%	69.9%	1.17×	1.23
Marseille under 2.5 goals	78.1%	75.4%	84.6%	0.89×	1.33
Marseille under 1.5 goals	52.2%	52.0%	63.2%	0.82×	1.92
Marseille over 1.5 goals	47.8%	48.0%	36.8%	1.30×	2.08
Marseille over 2.5 goals	21.9%	24.6%	15.4%	1.59×	4.07
Marseille under 0.5 goals	20.0%	18.3%	30.1%	0.61×	5.45
Marseille over 3.5 goals	8.0%	7.2%	6.6%	1.11×	13.80

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille under 1.5 in 1st half	86.5%	87.4%	87.2%	1.00×	1.14
Marseille under 0.5 in 1st half	52.8%	50.9%	57.3%	0.89×	1.96
Marseille over 0.5 in 1st half	47.2%	49.1%	42.7%	1.15×	2.04
Marseille over 1.5 in 1st half	13.5%	12.6%	12.8%	0.99×	7.93

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille scores more in 2nd half	42.3%	42.2%	33.1%	1.28×	2.37
Marseille scores equally in both	34.4%	32.4%	42.0%	0.77×	3.08
Marseille scores more in 1st half	23.3%	21.6%	25.1%	0.86×	4.63

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes (away no bet)	52.6%	51.4%	66.7%	0.77×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	47.4%	48.6%	33.3%	1.46×	2.06

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille even goals	52.0%	52.2%	56.3%	0.93×	1.92
Marseille odd goals	48.0%	47.8%	43.7%	1.09×	2.09

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.2%	81.8%	83.0%	0.99×	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.8%	18.2%	17.0%	1.07×	5.49

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	64.5%	66.3%	65.5%	1.01×	1.51
Both halves under 1.5 goals	35.5%	33.7%	34.5%	0.98×	2.97

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	56.8%	59.3%	60.2%	0.98×	1.69
Marseille to score 2+ in a row	39.5%	37.4%	28.1%	1.33×	2.68
Troyes to score 2+ in a row	23.7%	21.8%	38.1%	0.57×	4.59
Either team to score 3+ in a row	20.6%	21.7%	22.6%	0.96×	4.60
Marseille to score 3+ in a row	14.7%	12.3%	9.2%	1.33×	8.16
Troyes to score 3+ in a row	6.1%	7.3%	14.0%	0.52×	13.70

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes corners (+3.5)	89.7%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Troyes corners (+2.5)	83.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Marseille corners (+3.5)	78.4%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Troyes corners (+1.5)	75.3%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Marseille corners (+2.5)	69.4%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Marseille corners (+1.5)	58.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Troyes corners (-1.5)	41.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Troyes corners (-2.5)	30.6%	34.2%	—	—	2.93
Marseille corners (-1.5)	24.7%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Troyes corners (-3.5)	21.6%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Marseille corners (-2.5)	16.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
Marseille corners (-3.5)	10.3%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	60.4%	48.4%	—	—	2.07
9-11 corners	23.9%	25.6%	—	—	3.90
12+ corners	15.7%	22.6%	—	—	4.42

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	89.1%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	84.3%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	78.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	70.0%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 8.5 corners	60.4%	63.3%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	50.5%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 7.5 corners	49.5%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 8.5 corners	39.6%	36.7%	—	—	2.72
Over 9.5 corners	30.0%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 10.5 corners	22.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 11.5 corners	15.7%	19.3%	—	—	5.18
Over 12.5 corners	10.9%	17.0%	—	—	5.89

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.7%	11.6%	10.1%	1.14×	8.62
0-1	10.1%	11.6%	6.4%	1.81×	8.63
1-2	9.4%	7.3%	6.6%	1.11×	13.76
0-2	8.1%	7.3%	5.8%	1.26×	13.76
1-0	7.3%	7.3%	10.0%	0.73×	13.77
2-1	6.8%	7.3%	8.0%	0.91×	13.77
0-0	6.3%	7.3%	6.6%	1.11×	13.77
2-2	5.5%	7.3%	4.8%	1.50×	13.77
1-3	5.1%	7.3%	3.4%	2.12×	13.77
0-3	4.4%	1.8%	2.5%	0.72×	55.40
2-0	4.2%	1.8%	7.6%	0.24×	55.40
2-3	2.9%	1.8%	1.9%	0.96×	55.44
3-1	2.6%	1.8%	6.2%	0.29×	55.44
Any other score	3.1%	1.8%	5.1%	0.35×	55.43
0-4	1.8%	1.8%	1.6%	1.16×	55.46
1-4	2.0%	1.8%	1.6%	1.16×	55.46
3-0	1.6%	1.8%	3.7%	0.48×	55.47
3-2	2.1%	1.8%	2.8%	0.64×	55.46
2-4	1.2%	1.8%	0.8%	2.31×	55.48
3-3	1.1%	1.8%	1.6%	1.16×	55.48
3-4	0.5%	1.8%	0.8%	2.31×	55.50
4-0	0.5%	1.8%	1.7%	1.05×	55.50
4-1	0.8%	1.8%	2.0%	0.89×	55.49
4-2	0.6%	1.8%	1.6%	1.16×	55.49
4-3	0.3%	1.8%	0.3%	5.77×	55.50
4-4	0.1%	1.8%	0.3%	5.77×	55.50

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (2nd half DNB)	67.7%	66.7%	38.9%	1.71×	1.50
Troyes (2nd half DNB)	32.3%	33.3%	61.1%	0.55×	3.00

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille leading at HT (DNB)	52.8%	55.0%	46.8%	1.17×	1.82
Troyes leading at HT (DNB)	47.2%	45.0%	53.2%	0.85×	2.22

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes or Marseille (12)	75.3%	77.7%	77.2%	1.01×	1.29
Marseille or draw (X2)	72.6%	72.5%	54.4%	1.33×	1.38
Troyes or draw (1X)	52.1%	50.8%	68.2%	0.75×	1.97

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille or draw at HT	72.4%	71.3%	67.2%	1.06×	1.40
Troyes or draw at HT	69.1%	66.3%	71.1%	0.93×	1.51
Troyes or Marseille at HT	58.5%	58.2%	61.5%	0.95×	1.72

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille or draw (1UP)	72.6%	77.3%	62.2%	1.24×	1.29
Troyes or draw (1UP)	52.1%	58.8%	72.5%	0.81×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille or draw in 2nd half	79.0%	77.8%	57.9%	1.34×	1.29
Troyes or Marseille in 2nd half	65.0%	66.2%	68.8%	0.96×	1.51
Troyes or draw in 2nd half	56.0%	60.5%	73.2%	0.83×	1.65

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.9%	59.4%	56.8%	1.05×	1.68
Neither half drawn	38.1%	40.6%	43.2%	0.94×	2.46

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (DNB)	63.6%	62.0%	41.1%	1.51×	1.61
Troyes (DNB)	36.4%	38.0%	58.9%	0.65×	2.63

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to score first	54.5%	53.6%	44.3%	1.21×	1.86
Troyes to score first	39.2%	37.3%	49.3%	0.76×	2.68
No goal scored	6.3%	6.2%	6.6%	0.95×	16.06

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.9%	53.2%	54.0%	0.99×	1.88
Not both teams to score	45.1%	46.8%	46.0%	1.02×	2.14

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.2%	42.4%	44.0%	0.96×	2.36
Not both score & under 2.5	36.0%	37.4%	35.7%	1.05×	2.67
Both score & under 2.5	11.7%	11.7%	10.1%	1.15×	8.55
Not both score & over 2.5	9.1%	8.7%	10.5%	0.83×	11.53

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.6%	81.1%	84.7%	0.96×	1.23
Both teams to score 2+	15.4%	18.9%	15.3%	1.24×	5.29

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.9%	70.3%	69.9%	1.01×	1.42
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.1%	29.7%	30.1%	0.99×	3.37

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	57.6%	57.7%	57.4%	1.01×	1.73
Both score 2nd half only	21.4%	24.4%	23.7%	1.03×	4.11
Both score 1st half only	15.2%	18.0%	12.6%	1.43×	5.55
Both score in both halves	5.7%	6.4%	6.6%	0.97×	15.70

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.1%	79.9%	81.0%	0.99×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	20.9%	20.1%	19.0%	1.06×	4.98

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.5%	55.6%	59.4%	0.94×	1.80
A half without a goal	44.5%	44.4%	40.6%	1.09×	2.25

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.2%	45.9%	43.4%	1.06×	2.18
4-6 goals	27.8%	27.7%	30.7%	0.90×	3.61
0-1 goals	23.6%	22.8%	22.6%	1.01×	4.40
7+ goals	2.3%	1.9%	3.6%	0.54×	51.86

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to score exactly 1	32.2%	33.1%	33.2%	0.99×	3.03
Marseille to score exactly 2	25.9%	27.0%	21.5%	1.26×	3.70
Marseille to score 3+	21.9%	24.1%	15.4%	1.56×	4.16
Marseille to score exactly 0	20.0%	18.5%	30.1%	0.62×	5.39

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes to score exactly 1	36.4%	36.1%	31.8%	1.14×	2.77
Troyes to score exactly 0	31.4%	30.4%	22.5%	1.35×	3.29
Troyes to score exactly 2	21.1%	22.9%	23.1%	0.99×	4.36
Troyes to score 3+	11.2%	13.4%	22.9%	0.59×	7.45

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.5%	41.8%	38.5%	1.09×	2.39
Marseille leading at HT	30.9%	33.7%	28.9%	1.17×	2.97
Troyes leading at HT	27.6%	28.7%	32.8%	0.88×	3.48

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille -1: 1	52.1%	51.4%	—	—	1.94
Marseille -1: 2	24.9%	24.0%	—	—	4.16
Marseille -1: X	23.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.17

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:1)	72.6%	68.7%	54.4%	1.26×	1.46
Draw (0:1)	16.5%	18.2%	20.7%	0.88×	5.49
Troyes (0:1)	10.9%	10.5%	25.0%	0.42×	9.52

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:2)	89.1%	89.9%	75.0%	1.20×	1.11
Draw (0:2)	7.5%	7.1%	15.1%	0.47×	13.99
Troyes (0:2)	3.4%	3.0%	10.0%	0.30×	33.21

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:3)	96.6%	97.1%	90.0%	1.08×	1.03
Draw (0:3)	2.5%	2.3%	6.1%	0.38×	43.28
Troyes (0:3)	0.9%	2.3%	4.1%	0.56×	43.65

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (0:4)	99.1%	98.1%	95.9%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	2.7%	0.46×	81.79
Troyes (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.6%	0.78×	82.05

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes (1:0)	52.1%	48.2%	68.2%	0.71×	2.08
Marseille (1:0)	24.9%	23.0%	16.8%	1.36×	4.35
Draw (1:0)	23.0%	22.9%	15.1%	1.51×	4.37

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes (2:0)	75.1%	77.6%	83.2%	0.93×	1.29
Draw (2:0)	14.5%	12.1%	9.8%	1.23×	8.28
Marseille (2:0)	10.4%	11.9%	7.2%	1.66×	8.40

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.7%	49.5%	47.3%	1.05×	2.02
Halves equal	25.1%	26.1%	26.1%	1.00×	3.83
1st half highest scoring	30.2%	25.4%	26.8%	0.95×	3.94

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes to concede	80.0%	84.2%	69.9%	1.20×	1.19
Troyes clean sheet	20.0%	15.8%	30.1%	0.52×	6.33

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes clean sheet in 1st half	52.8%	50.9%	57.3%	0.89×	1.96
Troyes to concede in 1st half	47.2%	49.1%	42.7%	1.15×	2.04

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes to concede in 2nd half	62.2%	60.9%	49.8%	1.22×	1.64
Troyes clean sheet in 2nd half	37.8%	39.1%	50.2%	0.78×	2.56

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes under 6.5 corners	80.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Troyes over 2.5 corners	73.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Troyes under 5.5 corners	70.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Troyes over 3.5 corners	57.5%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Troyes under 4.5 corners	57.5%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Troyes under 3.5 corners	42.5%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Troyes over 4.5 corners	42.5%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
Troyes over 5.5 corners	29.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Troyes under 2.5 corners	26.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Troyes over 6.5 corners	20.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes under 3.5 goals	97.0%	97.7%	91.7%	1.07×	1.02
Troyes under 2.5 goals	88.8%	87.8%	77.1%	1.14×	1.14
Troyes over 0.5 goals	68.6%	68.9%	77.5%	0.89×	1.45
Troyes under 1.5 goals	67.8%	68.9%	54.1%	1.27×	1.45
Troyes over 1.5 goals	32.2%	31.1%	45.9%	0.68×	3.22
Troyes under 0.5 goals	31.4%	31.1%	22.5%	1.38×	3.22
Troyes over 2.5 goals	11.2%	12.2%	22.9%	0.53×	8.21
Troyes over 3.5 goals	3.0%	2.3%	8.3%	0.27×	44.43

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes under 1.5 in 1st half	88.3%	87.9%	87.4%	1.01×	1.14
Troyes under 0.5 in 1st half	55.6%	60.0%	52.3%	1.15×	1.67
Troyes over 0.5 in 1st half	44.4%	40.0%	47.7%	0.84×	2.50
Troyes over 1.5 in 1st half	11.7%	12.1%	12.6%	0.96×	8.23

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes scores equally in both	42.8%	40.4%	36.7%	1.10×	2.48
Troyes scores more in 1st half	29.0%	27.9%	22.6%	1.23×	3.59
Troyes scores more in 2nd half	28.1%	27.9%	40.9%	0.68×	3.59

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille (home no bet)	66.0%	68.6%	58.3%	1.18×	1.46
Draw (home no bet)	34.0%	31.4%	41.7%	0.75×	3.18

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes even goals	54.9%	50.3%	51.3%	0.98×	1.99
Troyes odd goals	45.1%	49.7%	48.7%	1.02×	2.01

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.4%	28.2%	28.5%	0.99×	3.55
HT 0-1	18.8%	18.9%	16.8%	1.12×	5.29
HT 1-0	17.2%	18.9%	21.1%	0.90×	5.29
HT 1-1	11.0%	11.2%	9.5%	1.17×	8.95
HT 0-2	6.0%	7.7%	5.5%	1.41×	13.02
HT 2-0	5.1%	7.7%	6.6%	1.17×	13.03
Any other HT score	4.8%	2.5%	4.7%	0.54×	39.73
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.5%	4.5%	0.56×	39.80
HT 2-1	3.2%	2.5%	3.3%	0.77×	39.82
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.5%	0.8%	3.21×	39.94

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille at HT / Marseille at FT	25.8%	27.2%	19.3%	1.40×	3.68
Draw at HT / Marseille at FT	18.3%	16.8%	11.1%	1.52×	5.95
Troyes at HT / Troyes at FT	17.5%	16.8%	27.5%	0.61×	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.5%	12.0%	12.9%	0.92×	8.36
Draw at HT / Troyes at FT	8.7%	6.6%	14.8%	0.44×	15.18
Troyes at HT / Draw at FT	6.3%	6.6%	3.9%	1.68×	15.24
Troyes at HT / Marseille at FT	3.8%	3.4%	1.7%	1.99×	29.34
Marseille at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.4%	6.2%	0.55×	29.34
Marseille at HT / Troyes at FT	1.2%	3.4%	3.6%	0.95×	29.45

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to score last	54.5%	53.6%	40.4%	1.33×	1.87
Troyes to score last	39.2%	38.1%	53.2%	0.72×	2.62
No goal scored	6.3%	6.2%	6.6%	0.95×	16.06

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.7%	93.7%	93.4%	1.00×	1.07
Marseille to lead by 1 at any time	63.0%	64.4%	49.6%	1.30×	1.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.5%	46.1%	51.3%	0.90×	2.17
Troyes to lead by 1 at any time	45.3%	46.1%	58.0%	0.79×	2.17
Marseille to lead by 2 at any time	31.5%	31.8%	22.0%	1.45×	3.14
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	17.4%	17.6%	20.1%	0.88×	5.68
Troyes to lead by 2 at any time	16.3%	17.6%	29.5%	0.60×	5.68
Marseille to lead by 3 at any time	12.7%	11.4%	8.4%	1.35×	8.80
Troyes to lead by 3 at any time	4.7%	2.7%	11.9%	0.22×	37.68

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes most corners	53.2%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Marseille most corners	35.0%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Corners level	11.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.5%	87.9%	85.0%	1.03×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.0%	78.9%	76.4%	1.03×	1.27
2-6 goals	74.0%	73.6%	73.9%	1.00×	1.36
2-5 goals	70.1%	73.6%	69.0%	1.07×	1.36
1-3 goals	63.6%	62.2%	59.4%	1.05×	1.61
2-4 goals	61.6%	62.2%	60.4%	1.03×	1.61
3-6 goals	50.0%	52.3%	50.9%	1.03×	1.91
2-3 goals	46.2%	48.0%	43.4%	1.11×	2.08
3-5 goals	46.1%	48.0%	45.9%	1.05×	2.09
1-2 goals	41.4%	43.6%	39.3%	1.11×	2.29
3-4 goals	37.6%	38.9%	37.3%	1.04×	2.57
4-6 goals	27.8%	30.6%	30.7%	0.99×	3.27
4-5 goals	23.9%	24.8%	25.7%	0.96×	4.04
5-6 goals	12.4%	13.5%	13.7%	0.98×	7.41
7+ goals	2.3%	2.0%	3.6%	0.56×	49.86

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille never behind	48.4%	53.7%	42.0%	1.28×	1.86
Troyes never behind	30.7%	36.2%	50.4%	0.72×	2.77

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.2%	47.3%	1.06×	1.99
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.8%	52.7%	0.94×	2.01

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	52.0%	51.6%	1.01×	1.92
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.0%	48.4%	0.99×	2.08

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.3%	51.7%	49.5%	1.05×	1.94
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.7%	48.3%	50.5%	0.96×	2.07

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	93.8%	93.0%	91.4%	1.02×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.7%	93.0%	93.4%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.3%	88.7%	82.8%	1.07×	1.13
Over 1.5 goals	76.4%	78.1%	77.4%	1.01×	1.28
Under 3.5 goals	69.9%	65.4%	65.8%	0.99×	1.53
Over 2.5 goals	52.3%	53.5%	54.3%	0.99×	1.87
Under 2.5 goals	47.7%	46.5%	45.7%	1.02×	2.15
Over 3.5 goals	30.1%	34.6%	34.2%	1.01×	2.89
Under 1.5 goals	23.6%	21.9%	22.6%	0.97×	4.56
Over 4.5 goals	14.7%	11.3%	17.2%	0.66×	8.86
Under 0.5 goals	6.3%	7.0%	6.6%	1.07×	14.28
Over 5.5 goals	6.2%	7.0%	8.6%	0.82×	14.28

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.6%	97.3%	96.2%	1.01×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.2%	92.8%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.6%	80.6%	79.3%	1.02×	1.24
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	68.9%	68.0%	70.6%	0.96×	1.47
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	61.3%	62.3%	57.2%	1.09×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	38.7%	37.7%	42.8%	0.88×	2.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	31.1%	32.0%	29.4%	1.09×	3.13
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.4%	19.4%	20.7%	0.94×	5.14
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.8%	7.2%	9.4%	0.76×	13.96
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.4%	2.7%	3.8%	0.73×	36.39

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.4%	88.1%	87.2%	1.01×	1.14
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.6%	72.4%	71.5%	1.01×	1.38
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.4%	68.5%	66.1%	1.04×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.6%	31.5%	33.9%	0.93×	3.18
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.4%	27.6%	28.5%	0.97×	3.62
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.6%	11.9%	12.8%	0.93×	8.39

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	79.8%	80.4%	75.4%	1.07×	1.24
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	78.7%	80.4%	81.4%	0.99×	1.24
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	45.7%	51.7%	48.7%	1.06×	1.94
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	54.3%	48.3%	51.3%	0.94×	2.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	21.3%	19.6%	18.6%	1.06×	5.10
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	20.2%	19.6%	24.6%	0.79×	5.11

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes not to score in both halves	80.7%	81.6%	68.0%	1.20×	1.23
Marseille not to score in both halves	70.7%	70.3%	77.4%	0.91×	1.42
Marseille to score in both halves	29.3%	29.7%	22.6%	1.31×	3.37
Troyes to score in both halves	19.3%	18.4%	32.0%	0.58×	5.43

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.9%	55.1%	54.0%	1.02×	1.82
Only Marseille scores	25.1%	25.4%	16.1%	1.58×	3.94
Only Troyes scores	13.7%	10.9%	23.7%	0.46×	9.18
Neither team scores	6.3%	6.6%	6.6%	1.01×	15.15

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.0%	21.6%	23.2%	0.93×	4.63
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	21.6%	20.3%	1.06×	4.63
Exactly 1 goals	17.4%	18.6%	16.2%	1.14×	5.39
Exactly 4 goals	15.4%	18.5%	17.2%	1.08×	5.40
Exactly 5 goals	8.5%	7.6%	8.7%	0.87×	13.12
Exactly 0 goals	6.3%	7.6%	6.6%	1.16×	13.15
6 or more goals	6.2%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.15

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	36.0%	37.3%	37.8%	0.99×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	29.4%	27.6%	28.5%	0.97×	3.62
2 goals in 1st half	22.0%	21.6%	21.2%	1.02×	4.63
3+ goals in 1st half	12.6%	11.9%	12.8%	0.93×	8.40

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	45.7%	50.7%	48.7%	1.04×	1.97
1 goal in 2nd half	33.0%	33.1%	32.9%	1.01×	3.02
No goals in 2nd half	21.3%	18.5%	18.6%	0.99×	5.42

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes not to win both halves	94.2%	93.5%	83.3%	1.12×	1.07
Marseille not to win both halves	86.4%	87.5%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Marseille to win both halves	13.6%	12.5%	9.4%	1.33×	8.01
Troyes to win both halves	5.8%	6.5%	16.7%	0.39×	15.34

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Marseille to win either half	61.3%	63.7%	46.3%	1.37×	1.57
Troyes to win neither half	57.2%	59.5%	41.8%	1.42×	1.68
Troyes to win either half	42.8%	40.5%	58.2%	0.70×	2.47
Marseille to win neither half	38.7%	36.3%	53.7%	0.68×	2.75

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Troyes not to win to nil	86.3%	88.1%	76.3%	1.16×	1.14
Marseille not to win to nil	74.9%	74.6%	83.9%	0.89×	1.34
Marseille to win to nil	25.1%	25.4%	16.1%	1.58×	3.94
Troyes to win to nil	13.7%	11.9%	23.7%	0.50×	8.43

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.7%	23.9%	22.8%	1.05×	4.18
Marseille by 1	23.0%	23.9%	15.1%	1.58×	4.19
Troyes by 1	16.5%	17.1%	20.7%	0.82×	5.87
Marseille by 2	14.5%	11.7%	9.8%	1.19×	8.52
Marseille by 3+	10.4%	11.7%	7.2%	1.63×	8.55
Troyes by 2	7.5%	7.0%	15.1%	0.46×	14.22
Troyes by 3+	3.4%	2.8%	10.0%	0.28×	35.23