Udinese v AC Milan — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 20 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 13
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
2 – 11
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.30 – +1.30
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Udinese win
19.6%
Draw
26.6%
AC Milan win
53.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLDWL last 10
scored 15
from 14.4 xG
conceded 11
from 15.7 xG
AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLWLWWD last 10
scored 11
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.93–1.68 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.00–1.92 | 0-1 10% | 56% | 54% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Udinese 0.30 xGAC Milan 1.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Udinese attacking right
AC Milan attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrien Rabiot |
| 2' |
 Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 2' |
Udinese |
Iker Bravo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 18' |
AC Milan |
Santiago Giménez | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Estupiñán |
| 39' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 45' |
AC Milan |
Youssouf Fofana | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Christian Pulisic |
| 52' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Adrien Rabiot |
| 55' |
AC Milan |
Fikayo Tomori | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Estupiñán |
| 60' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jordan Zemura |
| 62' |
AC Milan |
Ruben Loftus-Cheek | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 63' |
AC Milan |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Strahinja Pavlovic |
| 64' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 66' |
AC Milan |
Estupiñán | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Youssouf Fofana |
| 75' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adam Buksa |
| 77' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alessandro Zanoli |
| 78' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 79' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Samuele Ricci |
| 79' |
AC Milan |
Alexis Saelemaekers | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 79' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
AC Milan |
Estupiñán | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 87' |
Udinese |
Lennon Miller | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Thomas Thiesson Kristensen |
| 91' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Estupiñán |
| 93' |
Udinese |
Lennon Miller | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Rabiot MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 0.63 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.55 |
| Estupiñán DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.47 | 0.90 |
| Fikayo Tomori DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Pietro Terracciano GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Matteo Gabbia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Luka Modric MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Youssouf Fofana MC | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.40 |
| Strahinja Pavlovic DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.23 |
| Christian Pulisic FW | 65 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.67 | 0.09 | 1.15 |
| Santiago Giménez FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Christopher Nkunku Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Samuele Ricci Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| Koni de Winter Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Zachary Athekame Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| Razvan Sava GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Oier Zarraga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jordan Zemura DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Arthur Atta ML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp MR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue DR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Iker Bravo FW | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Adam Buksa Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Alessandro Zanoli Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| Rui Modesto Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennon Miller Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.04 |