Udinese v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 28 April 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 12
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
4 – 9
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.21
Goals − xG
-0.39 – -1.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Udinese win
26.0%
Draw
29.7%
Bologna win
44.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLDWL last 10
scored 15
from 14.4 xG
conceded 11
from 15.7 xG
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLDWWDLLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.7 xG
conceded 13
from 10.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.09–1.48 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.07–1.56 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 52% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Udinese 0.39 xGBologna 1.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Udinese attacking right
Bologna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Kingsley Ehizibue |
| 3' |
 Bologna |
Juan Miranda | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Odgaard |
| 3' |
Bologna |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 8' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Thijs Dallinga |
| 8' |
Udinese |
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Martín Payero |
| 13' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Martín Payero |
| 21' |
Udinese |
Martín Payero | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
Bologna |
Remo Freuler | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Davide Calabria |
| 32' |
Bologna |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 36' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 39' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 44' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 44' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martín Payero |
| 48' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Martín Payero |
| 51' |
Udinese |
Martín Payero | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Bologna |
Tommaso Pobega | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 66' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 74' |
Bologna |
Jhon Lucumí | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 74' |
Bologna |
Sam Beukema | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 76' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.02 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 85' |
Udinese |
Lautaro Giannetti | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Martín Payero |
| 86' |
Bologna |
Davide Calabria | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.50 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Santiago Castro |
| 88' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 92' |
Udinese |
Sandi Lovric | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riccardo Orsolini AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.08 | 0.62 |
| Sam Beukema DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Davide Calabria DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Lukasz Skorupski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Thijs Dallinga FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.06 | 0.31 |
| Remo Freuler DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Benjamín Domínguez AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jens Odgaard AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| Michel Aebischer DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommaso Pobega Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Fabbian Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Santiago Castro Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.50 | 0.57 |
| Nikola Moro Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Hassane Kamara DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Martín Payero MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Arthur Atta MR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rui Modesto Sub | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp ML | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lautaro Giannetti Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iker Bravo Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sandi Lovric Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |