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Udinese v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 25 October 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

2–0
1.13 – 0.16 xG
Shots
13 – 3
On target
4 – 0
Shots in box
5 – 2
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.46 – 0.15
Goals − xG
+0.87 – -0.16
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.30.60.91.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'Lorenzo Lucca 37' — goalKeinan Davis 77' — goal
Udinese 1.13 xGCagliari 0.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Martín Payero 5' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Set Piece)Sandi Lovric 5' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Martín Payero 19' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Sandi Lovric 22' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Sandi Lovric 27' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Kingsley Ehizibue 36' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Lucca 37' — Goal (0.35 xG, From Corner)Roberto Piccoli 38' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Keinan Davis 44' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Christian Kabasele 47' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Yerry Mina 55' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Sandi Lovric 63' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Keinan Davis 77' — Goal (0.34 xG, Open Play)Jesper Karlström 84' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Iker Bravo 91' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Alessandro Deiola 92' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)
Udinese attacking right Cagliari attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Udinese Martín Payero 0.06 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Keinan Davis
5' Udinese Sandi Lovric 0.05 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot
19' Udinese Martín Payero 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Christian Kabasele
22' Udinese Sandi Lovric 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lorenzo Lucca
27' Udinese Sandi Lovric 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Christian Kabasele
36' Udinese Kingsley Ehizibue 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Sandi Lovric
37' Udinese Lorenzo Lucca 0.36 From Corner Goal Hassane Kamara
38' Cagliari Roberto Piccoli 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
44' Udinese Keinan Davis 0.02 Open Play Missed Shot Hassane Kamara
47' Udinese Christian Kabasele 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Martín Payero
55' Cagliari Yerry Mina 0.07 Set Piece Missed Shot Tommaso Augello
63' Udinese Sandi Lovric 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Hassane Kamara
77' Udinese Keinan Davis 0.34 Open Play Right Foot Goal Jesper Karlström
84' Udinese Jesper Karlström 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Rui Modesto
91' Udinese Iker Bravo 0.07 Open Play Missed Shot Sandi Lovric
92' Cagliari Alessandro Deiola 0.09 From Corner Missed Shot Matteo Prati

Players

Udinese

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Keinan Davis FW 90 1 0 2 1 0.36 0.06 0.55
Sandi Lovric MC 90 0 0 4 2 0.20 0.11 0.31
Jesper Karlström MC 90 0 1 1 1 0.02 0.34 0.50
Souleymane Isaak Touré DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.52
Maduka Okoye GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Jaka Bijol DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
Hassane Kamara DML 86 0 1 0 3 0.00 0.46 0.20
Christian Kabasele DC 85 0 0 1 2 0.03 0.03 0.13
Lorenzo Lucca FW 73 1 0 1 1 0.36 0.04 0.09
Martín Payero MC 73 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.03 0.10
Kingsley Ehizibue DMR 73 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.08
Iker Bravo Sub 17 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.07
Rui Modesto Sub 17 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Oier Zarraga Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Lautaro Giannetti Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Jordan Zemura Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Cagliari

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Yerry Mina DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.00
Gabriele Zappa DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Paulo Azzi DMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Simone Scuffet GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sebastiano Luperto DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Razvan Marin MC 89 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Roberto Piccoli FW 71 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Tommaso Augello DML 71 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.00
Ndary Adopo MC 71 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alessandro Deiola Sub 54 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.00
Gianluca Gaetano AMC 36 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Antoine Makoumbou MC 29 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nadir Zortea Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Zito Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gianluca Lapadula Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matteo Prati Sub 1 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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