Udinese v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 5 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 8
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
15 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.07 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-2.04 – +0.21
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Udinese win
34.3%
Draw
31.1%
Cagliari win
34.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLDWL last 10
scored 15
from 14.4 xG
conceded 11
from 15.7 xG
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLWDLWWWLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.1 xG
conceded 10
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.11–1.12 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.55–1.20 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Udinese 3.04 xGCagliari 0.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Udinese attacking right
Cagliari attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' |
Udinese |
Christian Kabasele | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 7' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Jakub Piotrowski |
| 22' |
 Cagliari |
Gennaro Borrelli | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 24' |
Cagliari |
Gennaro Borrelli | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ndary Adopo |
| 24' |
Cagliari |
Matteo Prati | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Cagliari |
Mattia Felici | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Folorunsho |
| 27' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 27' |
Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 35' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jakub Piotrowski |
| 38' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alessandro Zanoli |
| 39' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Keinan Davis |
| 40' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 41' |
Udinese |
Jesper Karlström | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 42' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Udinese |
Saba Goglichidze | 0.46 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 52' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Di Pardo | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marco Palestra |
| 57' |
Udinese |
Christian Kabasele | 0.57 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Oumar Solet |
| 69' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 73' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 74' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 76' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Udinese |
Vakoun Bayo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 79' |
Udinese |
Vakoun Bayo | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 80' |
Cagliari |
Zito | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 90' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 90' |
Udinese |
Vakoun Bayo | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saba Goglichidze DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Arthur Atta MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0.42 | 0.16 | 0.54 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.36 | 0.76 | 1.18 |
| Hassane Kamara DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.37 | 0.83 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| Razvan Sava GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Alessandro Zanoli DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| Jakub Piotrowski MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.08 | 0.56 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.60 | 0.12 | 1.12 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 69 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Nicolò Bertola Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Vakoun Bayo Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Prati MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Zé Pedro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Alessandro Deiola MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Marco Palestra DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Michael Folorunsho MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Adam Obert DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Gennaro Borrelli FW | 74 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Ndary Adopo Sub | 71 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.48 | 0.58 |
| Mattia Felici DML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alessandro Di Pardo Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zito Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nicolò Cavuoti Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leonardo Pavoletti Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |