Udinese v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 6 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 12
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.17 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-1.07 – -0.79
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Udinese win
16.4%
Draw
24.3%
Como win
59.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDWWLLDW last 10
scored 14
from 14.7 xG
conceded 9
from 14.5 xG
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.78–1.72 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.03–1.72 | 1-1 11% | 52% | 53% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Udinese 1.07 xGComo 0.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Udinese attacking right
Como attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Como |
Diego Carlos | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Como |
Ivan Smolcic | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 5' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Assane Diao |
| 5' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 6' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
Como |
Máximo Perrone | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 9' |
 Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 28' |
Udinese |
Jesper Karlström | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
Udinese |
Kingsley Ehizibue | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 36' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 43' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.11 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 56' |
Udinese |
Christian Kabasele | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 63' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Paz |
| 71' |
Udinese |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 73' |
Como |
Sergi Roberto | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 75' |
Udinese |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 78' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 81' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Arizala |
| 82' |
Udinese |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lennon Miller |
| 86' |
Como |
Mergim Vojvoda | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jean Butez |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolo Zaniolo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Arthur Atta AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.36 | 0.58 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.54 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue DMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Hassane Kamara DML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.07 | 0.32 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jakub Piotrowski MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Lennon Miller Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.20 |
| Idrissa Gueye Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Juan Arizala Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| Nicolò Bertola Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.47 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Álex Valle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ivan Smolcic DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Assane Diao AMR | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Maxence Caqueret AML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| Mergim Vojvoda Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.02 | 0.38 |
| Martin Baturina Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Sergi Roberto Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Álvaro Morata Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |