Udinese v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 August 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 20
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
11 – 13
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 1.48
Goals − xG
-1.13 – -1.44
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Udinese win
21.4%
Draw
25.1%
Como win
53.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDWWLLDW last 10
scored 14
from 14.7 xG
conceded 9
from 14.5 xG
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.88–1.56 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.08–1.66 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 53% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Udinese 2.13 xGComo 2.44 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Udinese attacking right
Como attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Como |
Álex Valle | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 14' |
 Udinese |
Mergim Vojvoda | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Idrissa Gueye |
| 16' |
Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Idrissa Gueye |
| 21' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yan Couto |
| 22' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 25' |
Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 28' |
Udinese |
Hassane Kamara | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 30' |
Udinese |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 34' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Luis Milla |
| 43' |
Como |
Yan Couto | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Como |
Álex Valle | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Milla |
| 45' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 48' |
Udinese |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Udinese |
Mergim Vojvoda | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jakub Piotrowski |
| 52' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Paz |
| 53' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.71 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 53' |
Como |
Trevoh Chalobah | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Luis Milla |
| 55' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 57' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacobo Ramón |
| 60' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Assane Diao |
| 64' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Valle |
| 67' |
Udinese |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 74' |
Como |
Mattia Liberali | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yan Couto |
| 77' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mattia Liberali |
| 79' |
Como |
Mattia Liberali | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Assane Diao |
| 80' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Udinese |
Lennon Miller | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 83' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 83' |
Udinese |
Vakoun Bayo | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Ebosse |
| 87' |
Udinese |
Vakoun Bayo | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 94' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Luis Milla |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hassane Kamara DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| Mergim Vojvoda DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 1.02 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.16 |
| James Abankwah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.18 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.39 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp AMC | 88 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.52 | 0.79 |
| Idrissa Gueye FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.05 | 1.03 |
| Jakub Piotrowski MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| Matteo Palma DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enzo Ebosse Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.68 |
| Lennon Miller Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Vakoun Bayo Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Unai Gómez Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.36 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Nico Paz AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| Trevoh Chalobah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Álex Valle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Yan Couto DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.16 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Luis Milla DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.04 |
| Jesús Rodriguez AML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Martin Baturina AMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Assane Diao Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| Lucas Da Cunha Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Mattia Liberali Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Maxence Caqueret Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ivan Smolcic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |