Udinese v Cremonese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 7
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 2
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-0.27 – +0.30
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Udinese win
56.5%
Draw
24.1%
Cremonese win
19.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Udinese are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWLLLLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.1 xG
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.58–0.80 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.78–0.96 | 1-0 11% | 52% | 51% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Udinese 0.27 xGCremonese 0.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Udinese attacking right
Cremonese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Cremonese |
Alberto Grassi | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
Cremonese |
Giuseppe Pezzella | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 8' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alberto Grassi |
| 8' |
Cremonese |
Jamie Vardy | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 12' |
Cremonese |
Youssef Maleh | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Cremonese |
Youssef Maleh | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 24' |
 Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Cremonese |
Sebastiano Luperto | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 52' |
Udinese |
Jesper Karlström | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 72' |
Udinese |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 82' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Bertola |
| 88' |
Udinese |
Vakoun Bayo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 91' |
Udinese |
Nicolò Bertola | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 91' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jordan Zemura |
| 91' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Abdoulaye Camara |
| 95' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Arthur Atta MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Buksa FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Hassane Kamara DML | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Lennon Miller MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Arizala DMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Bertola Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Jordan Zemura Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Idrissa Gueye Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Vakoun Bayo Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Abdoulaye Camara Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Vardy FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Alberto Grassi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Filippo Terracciano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Bianchetti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssef Maleh MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Morten Thorsby MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tommaso Barbieri DMR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romano Floriani Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Okereke Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michele Collocolo Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jari Vandeputte Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Milan Djuric Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |