Udinese v Empoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 16 February 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 16
On target
8 – 4
Shots in box
13 – 12
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.62 – 0.52
Goals − xG
+0.03 – -2.55
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Udinese win
46.8%
Draw
29.6%
Empoli win
23.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDWWLLDW last 10
scored 14
from 14.7 xG
conceded 9
from 14.5 xG
Empoli are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 11.3 xG
conceded 14
from 10.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.61–1.10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Udinese 2.97 xGEmpoli 2.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Udinese attacking right
Empoli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Udinese |
Lorenzo Lucca | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 6' |
 Empoli |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 6' |
Empoli |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
Empoli |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
Empoli |
Emmanuel Gyasi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mattia De Sciglio |
| 10' |
Empoli |
Christian Kouamé | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Liam Henderson |
| 10' |
Udinese |
Florian Thauvin | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kingsley Ehizibue |
| 17' |
Udinese |
Sandi Lovric | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 18' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Arthur Atta |
| 19' |
Empoli |
Christian Kouamé | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 31' |
Empoli |
Christian Kouamé | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Liam Henderson |
| 36' |
Udinese |
Jaka Bijol | 0.44 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 39' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 49' |
Udinese |
Florian Thauvin | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 53' |
Empoli |
Liam Henderson | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Kouamé |
| 53' |
Empoli |
Youssef Maleh | 0.46 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Christian Kouamé |
| 57' |
Udinese |
Florian Thauvin | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 58' |
Udinese |
Lorenzo Lucca | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 60' |
Empoli |
Emmanuel Gyasi | 0.57 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 60' |
Empoli |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Liam Henderson |
| 63' |
Empoli |
Liberato Cacace | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Empoli |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 64' |
Udinese |
Lorenzo Lucca | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sandi Lovric |
| 65' |
Udinese |
Sandi Lovric | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Lucca |
| 72' |
Empoli |
Emmanuel Gyasi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mattia De Sciglio |
| 72' |
Empoli |
Giuseppe Pezzella | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Youssef Maleh |
| 77' |
Empoli |
Christian Kouamé | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 78' |
Udinese |
Martín Payero | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sandi Lovric |
| 79' |
Udinese |
Florian Thauvin | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sandi Lovric |
| 89' |
Udinese |
Florian Thauvin | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Goal | Martín Payero |
| 92' |
Udinese |
Florian Thauvin | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jaka Bijol |
Players
Empoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kouamé FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.93 | 0.51 | 1.07 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| Alberto Grassi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Saba Goglichidze DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Mattia De Sciglio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| Marco Silvestri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Liam Henderson MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.58 | 1.09 |
| Liberato Cacace DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Emmanuel Gyasi DMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Youssef Maleh MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Sebastiano Esposito Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| Junior Sambia Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Szymon Zurkowski Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Viktor Kovalenko Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ismael Konaté Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Thauvin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.21 | 0.00 | 1.42 |
| Jaka Bijol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.14 | 0.66 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.11 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.29 |
| Hassane Kamara DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Razvan Sava GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Lucca FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.14 | 0.45 |
| Sandi Lovric MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 0.94 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp ML | 75 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.73 | 0.11 | 1.10 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue DR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.64 |
| Arthur Atta MR | 65 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| Martín Payero Sub | 25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.57 | 0.74 |
| Rui Modesto Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Alexis Sánchez Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Iker Bravo Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simone Pafundi Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |