Udinese v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 2 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 10
On target
7 – 0
Shots in box
8 – 5
xG per shot
0.20 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
1.24 – 0.32
Goals − xG
+0.98 – -0.59
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Udinese win
24.4%
Draw
25.4%
Fiorentina win
50.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLDWL last 10
scored 15
from 14.4 xG
conceded 11
from 15.7 xG
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.07–1.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.55 | 1-1 12% | 55% | 58% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Udinese 2.02 xGFiorentina 0.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Udinese attacking right
Fiorentina attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Udinese |
Nicolò Bertola | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 9' |
Udinese |
Christian Kabasele | 0.47 | From Corner | — | Goal | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 16' |
 Fiorentina |
Marin Pongracic | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.15 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fabiano Parisi |
| 33' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 36' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 36' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 38' |
Fiorentina |
Jack Harrison | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marco Brescianini |
| 41' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 51' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 55' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 59' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 63' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 65' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 69' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 71' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 76' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cher Ndour |
| 84' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
Udinese |
Adam Buksa | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lennon Miller |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabiano Parisi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Jack Harrison DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| Albert Gudmundsson AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Daniele Rugani DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Moise Kean FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Marco Brescianini MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Cher Ndour Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Pietro Comuzzo Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Roberto Piccoli Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Giovanni Fabbian Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jacopo Fazzini Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kabasele DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo FW | 88 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.12 | 0.81 | 0.45 |
| Nicolò Bertola DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jakub Piotrowski MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jordan Zemura DML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 69 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.09 | 0.09 | 0.42 |
| Adam Buksa Sub | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Branimir Mlacic Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hassane Kamara Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennon Miller Sub | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |