Udinese v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 8 December 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 12
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
16 – 7
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.38 – 0.92
Goals − xG
-0.49 – +0.46
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Udinese win
36.6%
Draw
31.1%
Genoa win
32.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDWWLLDW last 10
scored 14
from 14.7 xG
conceded 9
from 14.5 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.29–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.21–1.29 | 1-1 13% | 45% | 51% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Udinese 1.49 xGGenoa 1.54 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Udinese attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 8' |
 Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Zanoli |
| 12' |
Genoa |
Brooke Norton-Cuffy | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lorenzo Colombo |
| 17' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 24' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 30' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Rui Modesto |
| 31' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Keinan Davis |
| 33' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 37' |
Genoa |
Alessandro Marcandalli | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Patrizio Masini |
| 37' |
Genoa |
Patrizio Masini | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Colombo |
| 37' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 41' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 41' |
Udinese |
Nicolò Bertola | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Udinese |
Rui Modesto | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Genoa |
Morten Thorsby | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 46' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alessandro Zanoli |
| 47' |
Genoa |
Patrizio Masini | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 50' |
Udinese |
Nicolò Bertola | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Udinese |
Nicolò Bertola | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jakub Piotrowski |
| 59' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 64' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Rui Modesto |
| 68' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Morten Thorsby |
| 68' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 79' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Genoa |
Jeff Ekhator | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 82' |
Genoa |
Brooke Norton-Cuffy | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Caleb Ekuban |
| 83' |
Udinese |
Adam Buksa | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 84' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kingsley Ehizibue |
| 94' |
Udinese |
Iker Bravo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Udinese |
Sandi Lovric | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Patrizio Masini MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Morten Thorsby MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.54 |
| Aarón Martín DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.46 |
| Sebastian Otoa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy MC | 79 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.78 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Vitinha FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 23 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Junior Messias Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolò Bertola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.13 | 0.23 | 0.95 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.79 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jakub Piotrowski MC | 89 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.06 | 0.78 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.45 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.07 | 0.60 |
| Rui Modesto Sub | 76 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.44 | 0.66 |
| Alessandro Zanoli DMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| Adam Buksa Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Jordan Zemura DML | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sandi Lovric Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Iker Bravo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |