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Udinese v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 September 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

2–3
0.98 – 2.30 xG
Shots
9 – 16
On target
3 – 7
Shots in box
7 – 12
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.03
Goals − xG
+1.02 – +0.70
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.31.92.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Davide Frattesi 0' — goalChristian Kabasele 34' — goalLautaro Martínez 46' — goalLautaro Martínez 47' — goalLorenzo Lucca 82' — goal
Udinese 0.98 xGInternazionale 2.30 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Davide Frattesi 0' — Goal (0.33 xG, Open Play)Alessandro Bastoni 3' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Lautaro Martínez 8' — Missed Shot (0.36 xG, Open Play)Davide Frattesi 13' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Marcus Thuram 20' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Sandi Lovric 23' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Davide Frattesi 27' — Missed Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Jordan Zemura 33' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Sandi Lovric 33' — Blocked Shot (0.40 xG, Open Play)Christian Kabasele 34' — Goal (0.03 xG, From Corner)Matteo Darmian 42' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Lautaro Martínez 46' — Goal (0.11 xG, Open Play)Lautaro Martínez 47' — Goal (0.36 xG, Open Play)Federico Dimarco 48' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Christian Kabasele 53' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Hakan Calhanoglu 54' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Christian Kabasele 59' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, From Corner)Oier Zarraga 59' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Davide Frattesi 64' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Lautaro Martínez 70' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Carlos Augusto 76' — Missed Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Christian Kabasele 80' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Henrikh Mkhitaryan 82' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Lucca 82' — Goal (0.25 xG, Open Play)Joaquín Correa 91' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)
Udinese attacking right Internazionale attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Internazionale Davide Frattesi 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Goal Matteo Darmian
3' Internazionale Alessandro Bastoni 0.04 Open Play Saved Shot Matteo Darmian
8' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.36 Open Play Missed Shot Hakan Calhanoglu
13' Internazionale Davide Frattesi 0.03 From Corner Missed Shot Federico Dimarco
20' Internazionale Marcus Thuram 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Matteo Darmian
23' Udinese Sandi Lovric 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
27' Internazionale Davide Frattesi 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Lautaro Martínez
33' Udinese Jordan Zemura 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Jesper Karlström
33' Udinese Sandi Lovric 0.40 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jordan Zemura
34' Udinese Christian Kabasele 0.03 From Corner Goal Jordan Zemura
42' Internazionale Matteo Darmian 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Marcus Thuram
46' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Goal Marcus Thuram
47' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.36 Open Play Left Foot Goal Federico Dimarco
48' Internazionale Federico Dimarco 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Hakan Calhanoglu
53' Udinese Christian Kabasele 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Jaka Bijol
54' Internazionale Hakan Calhanoglu 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Marcus Thuram
59' Udinese Christian Kabasele 0.13 From Corner Blocked Shot Jurgen Ekkelenkamp
59' Udinese Oier Zarraga 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Lorenzo Lucca
64' Internazionale Davide Frattesi 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Lautaro Martínez
70' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Davide Frattesi
76' Internazionale Carlos Augusto 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Lautaro Martínez
80' Udinese Christian Kabasele 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot Kingsley Ehizibue
82' Internazionale Henrikh Mkhitaryan 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Hakan Calhanoglu
82' Udinese Lorenzo Lucca 0.25 Open Play Right Foot Goal Brenner
91' Internazionale Joaquín Correa 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Henrikh Mkhitaryan

Players

Internazionale

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Lautaro Martínez FW 90 2 0 4 3 0.92 0.38 1.32
Matteo Darmian DMR 90 0 1 1 3 0.09 0.67 1.17
Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.10 1.64
Hakan Calhanoglu MC 90 0 0 1 3 0.02 0.44 1.09
Francesco Acerbi DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.57
Yann Bisseck DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.57
Yann Sommer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.46
Davide Frattesi MC 89 1 0 4 1 0.61 0.09 0.80
Marcus Thuram FW 79 0 1 1 3 0.30 0.23 1.46
Alessandro Bastoni DC 79 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.81
Federico Dimarco DML 69 0 1 1 2 0.06 0.39 0.91
Carlos Augusto Sub 21 0 0 1 0 0.14 0.00 0.14
Mehdi Taremi Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.16
Stefan de Vrij Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.14
Joaquín Correa Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Piotr Zielinski Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Udinese

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Christian Kabasele DC 90 1 0 4 0 0.21 0.00 0.32
Oier Zarraga MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.67
Jordan Zemura DML 90 0 1 1 2 0.01 0.43 0.40
Maduka Okoye GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.40
Kingsley Ehizibue DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.06
Jaka Bijol DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.41
Souleymane Isaak Touré DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.66
Jesper Karlström MC 78 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.00
Florian Thauvin FW 78 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Sandi Lovric MC 63 0 0 2 0 0.49 0.00 0.49
Keinan Davis FW 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lorenzo Lucca Sub 27 1 0 1 1 0.25 0.03 0.27
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp Sub 27 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.13 0.00
Brenner Sub 12 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.25 0.25
Arthur Atta Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Iker Bravo Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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