Udinese v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
5 – 14
On target
1 – 5
Shots in box
2 – 11
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.22
Goals − xG
-0.13 – -1.17
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Udinese win
14.1%
Draw
18.8%
Internazionale win
67.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLDWL last 10
scored 15
from 14.4 xG
conceded 11
from 15.7 xG
Internazionale are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWDWWDDWWW last 10
scored 26
from 22.1 xG
conceded 12
from 13.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.90–2.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.05–2.22 | 1-2 10% | 63% | 58% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Udinese 0.13 xGInternazionale 2.17 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Udinese attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 4' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 10' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 14' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
| 17' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 24' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 33' |
 Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 37' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 50' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 52' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Francesco Pio Esposito |
| 57' |
Udinese |
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 69' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.16 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 76' |
Udinese |
Jesper Karlström | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Udinese |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Internazionale |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Dimarco DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.40 | 0.88 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Yann Bisseck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.48 |
| Luis Henrique DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 89 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1.00 | 0.07 | 1.20 |
| Piotr Zielinski MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.50 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Carlos Augusto DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito FW | 69 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Francesco Acerbi Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan de Vrij Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Petar Sucic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hassane Kamara DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Atta AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Zanoli DMR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennon Miller Sub | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jakub Piotrowski MC | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Idrissa Gueye Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Bertola Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vakoun Bayo Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |