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Udinese v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 October 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–0
1.56 – 0.65 xG
Shots
12 – 9
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 5
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
1.09 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.67 – -0.65
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.50.91.41.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jordan Zemura 74' — goal
Udinese 1.67 xGLecce 0.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Christian Kabasele 2' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Lorenzo Lucca 2' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Federico Baschirotto 7' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 7' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 9' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Lassana Coulibaly 29' — Saved Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Christian Kabasele 32' — Shot On Post (0.21 xG, From Corner)Jordan Zemura 32' — Missed Shot (0.50 xG, From Corner)Christian Kabasele 36' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Set Piece)Oier Zarraga 38' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Antonino Gallo 43' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 45' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Keinan Davis 50' — Blocked Shot (0.50 xG, Open Play)Ylber Ramadani 68' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jordan Zemura 74' — Goal (0.11 xG, Direct Freekick)Hamza Rafia 80' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 82' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jaka Bijol 83' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Keinan Davis 83' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Jaka Bijol 84' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Hassane Kamara 94' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)
Udinese attacking right Lecce attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Udinese Christian Kabasele 0.05 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot
2' Udinese Lorenzo Lucca 0.05 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
7' Lecce Federico Baschirotto 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Antonino Gallo
7' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
9' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ante Rebic
29' Lecce Lassana Coulibaly 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Frederic Guilbert
32' Udinese Christian Kabasele 0.21 From Corner Shot On Post Jesper Karlström
32' Udinese Jordan Zemura 0.50 From Corner Missed Shot
36' Udinese Christian Kabasele 0.08 Set Piece Missed Shot
38' Udinese Oier Zarraga 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
43' Lecce Antonino Gallo 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ylber Ramadani
45' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Frederic Guilbert
50' Udinese Keinan Davis 0.50 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Jordan Zemura
68' Lecce Ylber Ramadani 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Antonino Gallo
74' Udinese Jordan Zemura 0.11 Direct Freekick Left Foot Goal
80' Lecce Hamza Rafia 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Lassana Coulibaly
82' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Lassana Coulibaly
83' Udinese Jaka Bijol 0.01 From Corner Blocked Shot Iker Bravo
83' Udinese Keinan Davis 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Jaka Bijol
84' Udinese Jaka Bijol 0.02 From Corner Saved Shot Hassane Kamara
94' Udinese Hassane Kamara 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Arthur Atta

Players

Udinese

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jordan Zemura DML 90 1 0 2 1 0.60 0.50 0.52
Christian Kabasele DC 90 0 0 3 0 0.34 0.00 0.00
Jaka Bijol DC 90 0 0 2 1 0.03 0.06 0.03
Jesper Karlström MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.21 0.03
Souleymane Isaak Touré DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Maduka Okoye GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lorenzo Lucca FW 79 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.00
Oier Zarraga MC 79 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Kingsley Ehizibue DMR 68 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Brenner FW 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Keinan Davis Sub 43 0 0 2 0 0.56 0.00 0.50
Hassane Kamara Sub 22 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.02 0.06
Iker Bravo Sub 11 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.06
Arthur Atta Sub 11 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
James Abankwah Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06

Lecce

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Lassana Coulibaly AMC 90 0 0 1 2 0.29 0.03 0.39
Patrick Dorgu AMR 90 0 0 3 0 0.17 0.00 0.17
Federico Baschirotto DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.36
Nikola Krstovic FW 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.09
Antonino Gallo DL 90 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.14 0.48
Wladimiro Falcone GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kialonda Gaspar DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.31
Ylber Ramadani DMC 80 0 0 1 1 0.07 0.02 0.13
Frederic Guilbert DR 80 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.33 0.33
Balthazar Pierret DMC 64 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Ante Rebic AML 64 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.11 0.15
Hamza Rafia Sub 26 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.10
Santiago Pierotti Sub 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Remi Oudin Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tete Morente Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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