Udinese v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 13
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 2
xG per shot
0.19 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.12
Goals − xG
+1.48 – +1.63
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Udinese win
47.1%
Draw
29.3%
Lecce win
23.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLDWL last 10
scored 15
from 14.4 xG
conceded 11
from 15.7 xG
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 9.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWLWWWLL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 12
from 21.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.40–0.92 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.49–0.87 | 1-0 14% | 42% | 45% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Udinese 1.52 xGLecce 0.37 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Udinese attacking right
Lecce attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 15' |
Udinese |
Jesper Karlström | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Arthur Atta |
| 19' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Hassane Kamara |
| 21' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 29' |
 Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thórir Helgason |
| 30' |
Lecce |
Tiago Gabriel | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 35' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tete Morente |
| 36' |
Udinese |
Keinan Davis | 0.42 | Open Play | — | Goal | Arthur Atta |
| 39' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danilo Veiga |
| 42' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 47' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Danilo Veiga |
| 55' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 58' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 74' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ylber Ramadani |
| 74' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lameck Banda |
| 79' |
Udinese |
Vakoun Bayo | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alessandro Zanoli |
| 80' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Youssef Maleh |
| 87' |
Lecce |
Alex Sala | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 88' |
Udinese |
Adam Buksa | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Vakoun Bayo |
| 95' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Alex Sala |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| Arthur Atta MC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| Saba Goglichidze DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hassane Kamara DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Zanoli DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.56 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 48 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Adam Buksa Sub | 42 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Vakoun Bayo Sub | 28 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| Nicolò Bertola Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jakub Piotrowski Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.19 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Pierotti AMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Medon Berisha DMC | 78 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nikola Stulic FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tete Morente AML | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Thórir Helgason AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 42 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Lameck Banda Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Francesco Camarda Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Youssef Maleh Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Alex Sala Sub | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 |