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Udinese v Napoli — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 14 December 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–3
1.49 – 1.96 xG
Shots
8 – 17
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 14
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.32 – 0.23
Goals − xG
-0.90 – +1.02
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.11.72.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Florian Thauvin 21' — goalRomelu Lukaku 49' — goalFranck Zambo 80' — goal
Udinese 1.90 xGNapoli 1.98 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Mathías Olivera 2' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)David Neres 9' — Missed Shot (0.34 xG, Open Play)Jurgen Ekkelenkamp 10' — Missed Shot (0.38 xG, Open Play)Florian Thauvin 12' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)David Neres 18' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Florian Thauvin 21' — Saved Shot (0.76 xG, )Florian Thauvin 21' — Goal (0.54 xG, Set Piece)Sandi Lovric 27' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Mathías Olivera 29' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Giovanni Di Lorenzo 30' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Scott McTominay 30' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Franck Zambo 35' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)David Neres 36' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Arthur Atta 37' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Jurgen Ekkelenkamp 39' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Set Piece)Mathías Olivera 42' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Romelu Lukaku 49' — Goal (0.32 xG, Open Play)Matteo Politano 54' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Romelu Lukaku 59' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Amir Rrahmani 74' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)David Neres 75' — Blocked Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)David Neres 75' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Lautaro Giannetti 75' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Franck Zambo 80' — Goal (0.37 xG, Open Play)Giovanni Simeone 84' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)
Udinese attacking right Napoli attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Napoli Mathías Olivera 0.06 Open Play Missed Shot
9' Napoli David Neres 0.34 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Giovanni Di Lorenzo
10' Udinese Jurgen Ekkelenkamp 0.38 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Florian Thauvin
12' Udinese Florian Thauvin 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Lorenzo Lucca
18' Napoli David Neres 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Mathías Olivera
21' Udinese Florian Thauvin 0.76 Left Foot Saved Shot
21' Udinese Florian Thauvin 0.54 Set Piece Left Foot Goal
27' Udinese Sandi Lovric 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
29' Napoli Mathías Olivera 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Romelu Lukaku
30' Napoli Giovanni Di Lorenzo 0.06 From Corner Missed Shot Matteo Politano
30' Napoli Scott McTominay 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Giovanni Di Lorenzo
35' Napoli Franck Zambo 0.07 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot
36' Napoli David Neres 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Scott McTominay
37' Udinese Arthur Atta 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Lautaro Giannetti
39' Udinese Jurgen Ekkelenkamp 0.01 Set Piece Saved Shot Florian Thauvin
42' Napoli Mathías Olivera 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
49' Napoli Romelu Lukaku 0.32 Open Play Left Foot Goal Scott McTominay
54' Napoli Matteo Politano 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Franck Zambo
59' Napoli Romelu Lukaku 0.09 Open Play Missed Shot Matteo Politano
74' Napoli Amir Rrahmani 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot David Neres
75' Napoli David Neres 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Scott McTominay
75' Napoli David Neres 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
75' Udinese Lautaro Giannetti 0.00 Open Play Left Foot Own Goal
80' Napoli Franck Zambo 0.37 Open Play Left Foot Goal Giovanni Simeone
84' Napoli Giovanni Simeone 0.09 Open Play Missed Shot Giovanni Di Lorenzo

Players

Udinese

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Florian Thauvin FW 90 1 0 3 2 1.37 0.39 0.45
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.38
Razvan Sava GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lorenzo Lucca FW 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.07
Jaka Bijol DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Jesper Karlström MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.38
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp MC 86 0 0 2 0 0.39 0.00 0.38
Jordan Zemura DML 86 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lautaro Giannetti DC 86 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Kingsley Ehizibue DMR 73 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.38
Arthur Atta Sub 57 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Sandi Lovric MC 33 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.07
Hassane Kamara Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Iker Bravo Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Rui Modesto Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
James Abankwah Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Napoli

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Franck Zambo MC 90 1 0 2 1 0.44 0.03 0.83
Mathías Olivera DL 90 0 0 3 1 0.14 0.07 1.33
Giovanni Di Lorenzo DR 90 0 0 1 3 0.06 0.48 0.53
Scott McTominay MC 90 0 1 1 3 0.05 0.51 1.39
Amir Rrahmani DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.24
Alex Meret GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.37
Stanislav Lobotka MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.86
Alessandro Buongiorno DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.98
David Neres FWL 88 0 0 5 1 0.71 0.05 1.44
Matteo Politano FWR 88 0 0 1 2 0.03 0.15 0.50
Romelu Lukaku FW 83 1 0 2 1 0.41 0.05 0.53
Giovanni Simeone Sub 7 0 1 1 1 0.09 0.37 0.46
Cyril Ngonge Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Giacomo Raspadori Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Billy Gilmour Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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