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Udinese v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 26 January 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–2
0.81 – 2.62 xG
Shots
10 – 16
On target
3 – 9
Shots in box
5 – 10
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.38 – 2.20
Goals − xG
+0.19 – -0.69
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.52.33.00'15'30'45'60'75'90'Lorenzo Lucca 37' — goalLorenzo Pellegrini 49' — goalArtem Dovbyk 63' — goal
Udinese 0.81 xGRoma 2.69 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Tommaso Baldanzi 20' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Christian Kabasele 21' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)Jaka Bijol 21' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Set Piece)Devyne Rensch 25' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Evan Ndicka 26' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Niccolò Pisilli 30' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Evan Ndicka 33' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Set Piece)Lorenzo Lucca 37' — Goal (0.25 xG, Set Piece)Sandi Lovric 48' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Pellegrini 49' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Jesper Karlström 50' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Sandi Lovric 51' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Pellegrini 56' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Niccolò Pisilli 56' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Martín Payero 56' — Saved Shot (0.29 xG, Open Play)Artem Dovbyk 60' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Artem Dovbyk 63' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Martín Payero 71' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Lorenzo Pellegrini 73' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Florian Thauvin 78' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nicola Zalewski 83' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Eldor Shomurodov 86' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Arthur Atta 90' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Eldor Shomurodov 92' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Set Piece)Eldor Shomurodov 92' — Saved Shot (0.14 xG, Set Piece)Gianluca Mancini 92' — Blocked Shot (0.25 xG, Set Piece)
Udinese attacking right Roma attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
20' Roma Tommaso Baldanzi 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
21' Udinese Christian Kabasele 0.03 Set Piece Missed Shot Florian Thauvin
21' Udinese Jaka Bijol 0.10 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Christian Kabasele
25' Roma Devyne Rensch 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Artem Dovbyk
26' Roma Evan Ndicka 0.09 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot
30' Roma Niccolò Pisilli 0.07 Open Play Missed Shot Angelino
33' Roma Evan Ndicka 0.10 Set Piece Missed Shot Lorenzo Pellegrini
37' Udinese Lorenzo Lucca 0.25 Set Piece Right Foot Goal Sandi Lovric
48' Udinese Sandi Lovric 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
49' Roma Lorenzo Pellegrini 0.76 Right Foot Goal
50' Udinese Jesper Karlström 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Sandi Lovric
51' Udinese Sandi Lovric 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
56' Roma Lorenzo Pellegrini 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Artem Dovbyk
56' Roma Niccolò Pisilli 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Tommaso Baldanzi
56' Udinese Martín Payero 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
60' Roma Artem Dovbyk 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Eldor Shomurodov
63' Roma Artem Dovbyk 0.76 Left Foot Goal
71' Udinese Martín Payero 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
73' Roma Lorenzo Pellegrini 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Kouadio Kone
78' Udinese Florian Thauvin 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
83' Roma Nicola Zalewski 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
86' Roma Eldor Shomurodov 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Nicola Zalewski
90' Udinese Arthur Atta 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Simone Pafundi
92' Roma Eldor Shomurodov 0.09 Set Piece Saved Shot Paulo Dybala
92' Roma Eldor Shomurodov 0.14 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot
92' Roma Gianluca Mancini 0.25 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot

Players

Udinese

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Lorenzo Lucca FW 90 1 0 1 0 0.25 0.00 0.00
Jaka Bijol DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.00
Florian Thauvin FW 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.03 0.06
Razvan Sava GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jordan Zemura DML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Christian Kabasele Sub 84 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.10 0.00
Rui Modesto DMR 83 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Martín Payero MC 82 0 0 2 0 0.31 0.00 0.31
Sandi Lovric MC 71 0 1 2 2 0.03 0.29 0.06
Jesper Karlström MC 70 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Arthur Atta Sub 20 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Simone Pafundi Sub 8 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Alexis Sánchez Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Souleymane Isaak Touré DC 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Roma

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Gianluca Mancini DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.25 0.00 0.22
Evan Ndicka DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.19 0.00 0.22
Niccolò Pisilli MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.14 0.00 0.25
Angelino DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.13
Kouadio Kone MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.17
Mile Svilar GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.20
Lorenzo Pellegrini MC 86 1 0 3 1 0.89 0.10 0.32
Artem Dovbyk FW 86 1 0 2 2 0.82 0.11 0.24
Devyne Rensch DMR 75 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.18
Tommaso Baldanzi AMC 63 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.07 0.25
Mehmet Zeki Çelik DC 51 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Eldor Shomurodov Sub 39 0 0 3 1 0.28 0.06 0.17
Stephan El Shaarawy Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Nicola Zalewski Sub 15 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.04 0.06
Paulo Dybala Sub 4 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.04
Bryan Cristante Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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