Udinese v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 10
On target
2 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 8
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.01
Goals − xG
+0.51 – +0.75
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Udinese win
34.6%
Draw
25.9%
Sassuolo win
39.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLDWL last 10
scored 15
from 14.4 xG
conceded 11
from 15.7 xG
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.28–1.38 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.22 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Udinese 0.49 xGSassuolo 1.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Udinese attacking right
Sassuolo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 6' |
 Udinese |
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 9' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 14' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 16' |
Udinese |
Lennon Miller | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Atta |
| 24' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sebastian Walukiewicz |
| 25' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jordan Zemura |
| 28' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 30' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Josh Doig |
| 35' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 49' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jordan Zemura |
| 55' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Andrea Pinamonti |
| 55' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 57' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.70 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ulisses García |
| 72' |
Sassuolo |
Luca Lipani | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 86' |
Udinese |
Adam Buksa | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Sassuolo |
M'Bala Nzola | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 93' |
Udinese |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Atta |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolo Zaniolo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Bertola DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jordan Zemura DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| Arthur Atta ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.27 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp MR | 80 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Lennon Miller MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Vakoun Bayo FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Buksa Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Arizala Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jakub Piotrowski Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Idrissa Gueye Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 1.01 |
| Luca Lipani MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.93 |
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 1.06 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 80 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 1.02 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 73 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.72 | 0.09 | 0.81 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Josh Doig DL | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Ulisses García Sub | 43 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| Woyo Coulibaly Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| M'Bala Nzola Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristian Volpato Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |