Udinese v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 2 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 10
On target
8 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 3
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.57 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-0.24 – -0.81
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Udinese win
46.2%
Draw
24.4%
Torino win
29.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDWWLLDWL last 10
scored 15
from 14.4 xG
conceded 11
from 15.7 xG
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.50–1.14 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.48–1.28 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Udinese 2.24 xGTorino 0.81 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Udinese attacking right
Torino attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 10' |
 Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Udinese |
Kingsley Ehizibue | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Buksa |
| 11' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 15' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Maduka Okoye |
| 17' |
Torino |
Emirhan Ilkhan | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 17' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 18' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Buksa |
| 20' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 31' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kingsley Ehizibue |
| 35' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 45' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 45' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 45' |
Udinese |
Kingsley Ehizibue | 0.80 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 48' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Udinese |
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 50' |
Udinese |
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen | 0.32 | From Corner | — | Goal | Lennon Miller |
| 55' |
Udinese |
Adam Buksa | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 62' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sandro Kulenovic |
| 62' |
Torino |
Rafael Obrador | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Giovanni Simeone |
| 63' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 79' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oumar Solet |
| 81' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luca Marianucci |
| 85' |
Torino |
Matteo Prati | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 87' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alieu Njie |
| 88' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 89' |
Udinese |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Hassane Kamara |
| 92' |
Torino |
Valentino Lazaro | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 94' |
Udinese |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gvidas Gineitis MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| Nikola Vlasic AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Valentino Lazaro DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Enzo Ebosse DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Luca Marianucci DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.56 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.01 | 0.60 |
| Rafael Obrador DML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Emirhan Ilkhan MC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Cesare Casadei MC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Matteo Prati Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sandro Kulenovic Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Cristiano Biraghi Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alieu Njie Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 0.31 | 0.35 | 0.66 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.04 | 1.34 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.12 | 0.61 |
| Hassane Kamara DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.48 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| Arthur Atta MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Lennon Miller MC | 79 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Adam Buksa FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue DMR | 71 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.12 | 1.05 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Idrissa Gueye Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Jakub Piotrowski Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Branimir Mlacic Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Juan Arizala Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |