Union Berlin v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 16 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 11
On target
9 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.06
Goals − xG
+1.45 – -0.51
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Union Berlin win
40.1%
Draw
26.6%
Augsburg win
33.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 14.2 xG
conceded 21
from 20.5 xG
Augsburg are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLWWDLDLD last 10
scored 23
from 22.8 xG
conceded 19
from 22.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.34–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.63–1.37 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 60% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Union Berlin 2.55 xGAugsburg 0.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Union Berlin attacking right
Augsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 9' |
 Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Andras Schafer |
| 15' |
Union Berlin |
Livan Burcu | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilyas Ansah |
| 25' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 28' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 41' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Oliver Burke |
| 44' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Diogo Leite |
| 46' |
Union Berlin |
Oliver Burke | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Livan Burcu |
| 52' |
Union Berlin |
Christopher Trimmel | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andras Schafer |
| 53' |
Union Berlin |
Andras Schafer | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Livan Burcu |
| 55' |
Union Berlin |
Aljoscha Kemlein | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Oliver Burke |
| 55' |
Union Berlin |
Andras Schafer | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Rothe |
| 55' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrej Ilic |
| 61' |
Union Berlin |
Livan Burcu | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Rothe |
| 71' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 72' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 74' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Han-Noah Massengo |
| 77' |
Augsburg |
Mads Pedersen | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Robin Fellhauer |
| 78' |
Augsburg |
Cédric Zesiger | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Augsburg |
Rodrigo Ribeiro | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mads Pedersen |
| 78' |
Augsburg |
Uchenna Ogundu | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Robin Fellhauer |
| 84' |
Augsburg |
Uchenna Ogundu | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jeffrey Gouweleeuw |
| 86' |
Augsburg |
Uchenna Ogundu | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 88' |
Union Berlin |
Dmytro Bogdanov | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tim Skarke |
| 88' |
Union Berlin |
Woo-Yeong Jeong | 0.84 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 92' |
Union Berlin |
Dmytro Bogdanov | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tim Skarke |
| 92' |
Union Berlin |
Dmytro Bogdanov | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Josip Juranovic |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Kade AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Robin Fellhauer DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Fabian Rieder MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Michael Gregoritsch FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Wolf DMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mert Kömür AMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yannik Keitel MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Ribeiro Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Han-Noah Massengo Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Mads Pedersen Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| Noahkai Banks Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Uchenna Ogundu Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Andras Schafer DMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.54 | 1.08 |
| Carl Klaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tom Rothe DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.39 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.36 |
| Andrej Ilic FW | 89 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.08 | 0.64 |
| Oliver Burke AMR | 89 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| Livan Burcu AML | 74 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.34 |
| Ilyas Ansah AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.27 |
| Christopher Trimmel DR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Josip Juranovic Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| Dmytro Bogdanov Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Leopold Querfeld Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |