Union Berlin v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 15 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 18
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
4 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.34
Goals − xG
+0.20 – -0.84
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Union Berlin win
12.5%
Draw
24.4%
Bayern Munich win
63.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 14.2 xG
conceded 21
from 20.5 xG
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDWWDWW last 10
scored 34
from 32.5 xG
conceded 10
from 13.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.81–1.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Union Berlin 0.80 xGBayern Munich 1.84 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Union Berlin attacking right
Bayern Munich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Bayern Munich |
Dayotchanculle Upamecano | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 14' |
 Union Berlin |
Rani Khedira | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 16' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 26' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 36' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 40' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alphonso Davies |
| 46' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.26 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 49' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 58' |
Union Berlin |
Josip Juranovic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 60' |
Union Berlin |
Josip Juranovic | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Michael Olise |
| 63' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 65' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Michael Olise |
| 69' |
Bayern Munich |
Joshua Kimmich | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leroy Sané |
| 74' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Josip Stanisic |
| 75' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danilho Doekhi |
| 80' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 86' |
Bayern Munich |
Jamal Musiala | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dayotchanculle Upamecano |
| 89' |
Bayern Munich |
Leroy Sané | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 95' |
Union Berlin |
Tim Skarke | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josip Juranovic DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong ML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andras Schafer MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Christopher Trimmel DR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Janik Haberer MR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Andrej Ilic FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benedict Hollerbach Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Marin Ljubicic Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Rothe Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| László Bénes Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Musiala AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Harry Kane FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Leon Goretzka DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.90 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 1.30 |
| Eric Dier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.28 |
| Jonas Urbig GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Josip Stanisic DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.84 |
| Alphonso Davies DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1.01 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.16 | 1.00 | 1.35 |
| Serge Gnabry AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Leroy Sané Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.02 | 0.76 |
| Hiroki Ito Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |