Union Berlin v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 12
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.74 – 0.07
Goals − xG
+0.97 – +0.66
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Union Berlin win
8.4%
Draw
13.9%
Bayern Munich win
77.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 14.2 xG
conceded 21
from 20.5 xG
Bayern Munich are finishing above their chances — 3.2 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWDWWDW last 10
scored 35
from 31.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.87–2.84 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.76–2.37 | 0-2 12% | 61% | 48% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Union Berlin 1.03 xGBayern Munich 1.34 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Union Berlin attacking right
Bayern Munich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Union Berlin |
Janik Haberer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aljoscha Kemlein |
| 7' |
Union Berlin |
Tom Rothe | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilyas Ansah |
| 8' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Diogo Leite |
| 26' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Janik Haberer |
| 30' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 32' |
 Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Josip Stanisic |
| 37' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Josip Stanisic |
| 43' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Danilho Doekhi |
| 44' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Harry Kane |
| 46' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Tah |
| 56' |
Union Berlin |
Aljoscha Kemlein | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Union Berlin |
Janik Haberer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rani Khedira |
| 59' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.20 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 63' |
Bayern Munich |
Jonathan Tah | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joshua Kimmich |
| 67' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lennart Karl |
| 70' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Tah |
| 73' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leon Goretzka |
| 76' |
Union Berlin |
Ilyas Ansah | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.57 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 87' |
Union Berlin |
Josip Juranovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Union Berlin |
Tim Skarke | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 92' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Goal | Tom Bischof |
| 95' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tom Bischof |
Players
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andras Schafer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Rothe DML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ilyas Ansah FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Oliver Burke FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Janik Haberer DMR | 75 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Josip Juranovic Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alex Kral Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Skarke Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Derrick Köhn Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.35 | 1.05 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.42 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Josip Stanisic DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.37 |
| Joshua Kimmich DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| Leon Goretzka DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.04 | 0.36 |
| Konrad Laimer DR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Serge Gnabry AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennart Karl Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Tom Bischof Sub | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nicolas Jackson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |