Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 24 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 15
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
8 – 11
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.87 – 1.08
Goals − xG
-0.99 – +0.71
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Union Berlin win
24.8%
Draw
29.0%
Borussia Dortmund win
46.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Union Berlin have scored 15 from 14.2 expected and conceded 21 from 20.5 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWWDLLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 14.2 xG
conceded 21
from 20.5 xG
Borussia Dortmund are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWWWWWDDW last 10
scored 17
from 20.7 xG
conceded 7
from 11.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.04–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.11–1.74 | 1-1 11% | 54% | 55% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Union Berlin 0.99 xGBorussia Dortmund 2.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Union Berlin attacking right
Borussia Dortmund attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.38 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 9' |
 Borussia Dortmund |
Emre Can | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 11' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Fabio Silva | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 13' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Julian Ryerson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Serhou Guirassy |
| 16' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 17' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Fabio Silva | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Jobe Bellingham | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Serhou Guirassy |
| 20' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Union Berlin |
Diogo Leite | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 30' |
Union Berlin |
Josip Juranovic | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 37' |
Union Berlin |
Danilho Doekhi | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 40' |
Union Berlin |
Woo-Yeong Jeong | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 45' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Fabio Silva | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Fabio Silva | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 48' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Jobe Bellingham | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Maximilian Beier |
| 52' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Nico Schlotterbeck | 0.18 | From Corner | — | Goal | Julian Ryerson |
| 56' |
Union Berlin |
Diogo Leite | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 59' |
Union Berlin |
Diogo Leite | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 70' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Felix Nmecha | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Julian Ryerson |
| 73' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 80' |
Union Berlin |
Livan Burcu | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrej Ilic |
| 82' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Serhou Guirassy | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Svensson |
| 83' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Maximilian Beier | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jobe Bellingham |
| 93' |
Borussia Dortmund |
Salih Özcan | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Serhou Guirassy |
Players
Borussia Dortmund
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serhou Guirassy FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.31 | 0.94 |
| Maximilian Beier AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.04 | 0.72 |
| Nico Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jobe Bellingham MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| Felix Nmecha MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Julian Ryerson DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| Daniel Svensson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.63 |
| Gregor Kobel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Waldemar Anton DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fabio Silva AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Emre Can DC | 73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Aaron Anselmino Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carney Chukwuemeka Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Salih Özcan Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Filippo Mané Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Ilic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Janik Haberer DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.00 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aljoscha Kemlein MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josip Juranovic DML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.05 | 0.56 | 0.02 |
| Ilyas Ansah AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Livan Burcu Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Stanley N'Soki Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Burke Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andras Schafer Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christopher Trimmel Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |