Union Berlin v Elversberg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 10 October 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Union Berlin

1–0

1.24 – 0.28 xG

Elversberg

Shots

19 – 7

On target

6 – 2

Shots in box

13 – 6

xG per shot

0.07 – 0.04

Set-piece xG

0.41 – 0.16

Goals − xG

-0.26 – -0.28

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Final pre-match price, taken 10 Oct, 10:59 · 3h before kick-off

Union Berlin win

48.3%

model 48.2%

Draw

22.5%

model 21.5%

Elversberg win

29.2%

model 30.4%

482329

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 8.8%
1-1 8.8%
2-2 6.9%
1-2 6.9%
3-1 5.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	69.5%	Under 2.5	30.5%
BTTS yes	68.7%	BTTS no	31.3%
Union Berlin 1+	86.7%	Union Berlin 2+	59.8%
Elversberg 1+	79.3%	Elversberg 2+	46.7%

Expected goals 2.02 – 1.57. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

98/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Odd number of goals

Odd/Even · usually 45%

50.3% fair odds 1.99

moderate signal · 2988 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Union Berlin not to win to nil

Win to nil · usually 80%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1180 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

At home Union Berlin average 1.99 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Union Berlin have an estimated 48.3% win probability, against 29.2% for Elversberg and 22.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.02 for Union Berlin and 1.57 for Elversberg.

Why Union Berlin

At home Union Berlin average 1.99 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.5%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Elversberg can win

Elversberg carry the stronger rating, 1625 Elo against 1429. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Union Berlin were missing 0.78 expected goal involvements a match against 0.21.

Key players

Union Berlin's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Andrej Ilic (0.44), Oliver Burke (0.23), Emmanuel Latte Lath (0.22). Elversberg's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: David Mokwa (0.37), Lukas Petkov (0.29), Cole Campbell (0.18).

Availability

2 of Union Berlin's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Union Berlin's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Union Berlin: 46% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 18.8 faced, 0.60 xG a match from set pieces. Elversberg: 46% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 18.4 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-10 14:48 · team_stats 2026-10-10 06:03 · availability 2026-10-10 14:59 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Union Berlin are the model's most likely outcome at 48.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 8.8%. Confidence 98/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Union Berlin have scored 15 from 13.8 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDWWDLLLWD last 10 scored 15 from 13.8 xG conceded 23 from 23.0 xG

Elversberg are conceding fewer than expected — 3.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWLDLW last 6 scored 12 from 10.5 xG conceded 11 from 14.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
ai-blend	482130	2.02–1.57	0%	0%	0%	Home ✓
dc-xg	482329	1.84–1.37	1-1 10%	62%	63%	Home ✓
dc-xg-oos	482130	2.04–1.59	2-1 9%	70%	69%	Home ✓

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to win	56.3%	54.0%	41.8%	1.29×	1.85
Draw	22.0%	24.4%	24.8%	0.99×	4.09
Elversberg to win	21.7%	24.4%	33.5%	0.73×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin & both teams score	28.3%	25.1%	22.2%	1.13×	3.98
Union Berlin & not both score	28.0%	25.1%	19.8%	1.27×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	17.3%	18.0%	19.1%	0.94×	5.57
Elversberg & both teams score	11.9%	13.3%	18.5%	0.72×	7.53
Elversberg & not both score	9.8%	8.3%	15.2%	0.55×	12.00
Draw & not both score	4.8%	4.9%	5.8%	0.84×	20.43

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin & over 1.5	47.1%	45.0%	35.8%	1.25×	2.22
Union Berlin & over 2.5	38.3%	34.8%	29.8%	1.17×	2.87
Union Berlin & under 3.5	33.6%	30.8%	21.5%	1.43×	3.25
Union Berlin & over 3.5	22.7%	21.6%	20.5%	1.06×	4.63
Union Berlin & under 2.5	18.0%	18.0%	12.2%	1.48×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.3%	18.0%	19.1%	0.94×	5.56
Elversberg & over 1.5	16.4%	18.0%	27.7%	0.65×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.0%	18.0%	15.4%	1.17×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.0%	18.0%	15.4%	1.17×	5.56
Elversberg & under 3.5	15.1%	18.0%	19.5%	0.92×	5.56
Elversberg & over 2.5	13.4%	12.9%	23.5%	0.55×	7.78
Union Berlin & under 1.5	9.2%	7.9%	6.2%	1.29×	12.63
Elversberg & under 2.5	8.3%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	7.0%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	7.0%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.63
Elversberg & over 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	14.2%	0.56×	12.63
Elversberg & under 1.5	5.3%	7.9%	6.0%	1.32×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	4.8%	4.8%	5.8%	0.82×	20.83

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (1UP)	70.4%	75.2%	59.9%	1.26×	1.33
Elversberg (1UP)	40.8%	38.8%	52.5%	0.74×	2.58

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (2UP)	56.3%	54.9%	45.1%	1.22×	1.82
Elversberg (2UP)	21.7%	23.3%	36.5%	0.64×	4.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to win 2nd half	61.4%	58.9%	37.1%	1.59×	1.70
2nd half drawn	27.4%	26.6%	33.7%	0.79×	3.76
Elversberg to win 2nd half	11.2%	11.3%	29.3%	0.39×	8.82

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 1.5 in 2nd half	93.2%	91.5%	79.7%	1.15×	1.09
Elversberg under 0.5 in 2nd half	65.4%	70.2%	43.1%	1.63×	1.43
Elversberg over 0.5 in 2nd half	34.6%	29.8%	56.9%	0.52×	3.35
Elversberg over 1.5 in 2nd half	6.8%	8.5%	20.3%	0.42×	11.76

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.1%	75.4%	62.6%	1.21×	1.33
Union Berlin under 1.5 in 2nd half	59.6%	57.9%	74.4%	0.78×	1.73
Union Berlin over 1.5 in 2nd half	40.4%	42.1%	25.6%	1.64×	2.38
Union Berlin under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.9%	24.6%	37.4%	0.66×	4.07

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (+2.5)	84.2%	82.5%	88.0%	0.94×	1.21
Union Berlin (+0.5)	78.3%	78.5%	66.5%	1.18×	1.27
Elversberg (+1.5)	67.0%	68.7%	75.1%	0.91×	1.46
Union Berlin (-0.5)	56.3%	57.0%	41.8%	1.36×	1.75
Elversberg (+0.5)	43.7%	43.0%	58.2%	0.74×	2.33
Union Berlin (-1.5)	33.0%	31.3%	24.9%	1.26×	3.19
Elversberg (-0.5)	21.7%	21.5%	33.5%	0.64×	4.65
Union Berlin (-2.5)	15.8%	17.5%	12.0%	1.46×	5.72

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to concede	85.5%	86.3%	79.1%	1.09×	1.16
Elversberg clean sheet	14.5%	13.7%	20.9%	0.66×	7.28

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg clean sheet in 1st half	58.2%	58.0%	47.9%	1.21×	1.72
Elversberg to concede in 1st half	41.8%	42.0%	52.1%	0.81×	2.38

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to concede in 2nd half	75.1%	74.6%	62.6%	1.19×	1.34
Elversberg clean sheet in 2nd half	24.9%	25.4%	37.4%	0.68×	3.94

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 3.5 goals	97.3%	97.5%	92.6%	1.05×	1.03
Elversberg under 2.5 goals	89.7%	87.9%	79.1%	1.11×	1.14
Elversberg under 1.5 goals	69.3%	68.0%	57.2%	1.19×	1.47
Elversberg over 0.5 goals	67.2%	68.0%	74.5%	0.91×	1.47
Elversberg under 0.5 goals	32.8%	32.0%	25.5%	1.25×	3.12
Elversberg over 1.5 goals	30.7%	32.0%	42.8%	0.75×	3.12
Elversberg over 2.5 goals	10.3%	12.1%	20.9%	0.58×	8.23
Elversberg over 3.5 goals	2.7%	2.5%	7.4%	0.34×	39.93

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg under 1.5 in 1st half	84.7%	83.3%	85.7%	0.97×	1.20
Elversberg under 0.5 in 1st half	50.1%	55.1%	54.5%	1.01×	1.81
Elversberg over 0.5 in 1st half	49.9%	44.9%	45.5%	0.99×	2.23
Elversberg over 1.5 in 1st half	15.3%	16.7%	14.3%	1.16×	6.00

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg scores equally in both	43.1%	44.2%	39.4%	1.12×	2.26
Elversberg scores more in 1st half	37.1%	36.9%	24.0%	1.53×	2.71
Elversberg scores more in 2nd half	19.8%	18.3%	36.7%	0.50×	5.46

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (away no bet)	71.9%	68.2%	62.8%	1.09×	1.47
Draw (away no bet)	28.1%	31.8%	37.2%	0.85×	3.15

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg even goals	55.4%	56.9%	53.4%	1.07×	1.76
Elversberg odd goals	44.6%	43.1%	46.6%	0.92×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.1%	83.0%	75.3%	1.10×	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.9%	17.0%	24.7%	0.69×	5.90

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.1%	67.3%	72.4%	0.93×	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.9%	32.7%	27.6%	1.19×	3.06

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.7%	60.1%	66.9%	0.90×	1.66
Union Berlin to score 2+ in a row	48.9%	45.9%	42.5%	1.08×	2.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.9%	25.1%	29.6%	0.85×	3.98
Elversberg to score 2+ in a row	21.2%	19.5%	34.4%	0.57×	5.12
Union Berlin to score 3+ in a row	21.3%	19.5%	17.9%	1.09×	5.12
Elversberg to score 3+ in a row	5.1%	5.6%	12.6%	0.45×	17.79

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.2%	11.5%	9.7%	1.18×	8.73
1-0	9.2%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.50
2-0	8.9%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.50
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.50
0-1	5.3%	7.4%	6.0%	1.23×	13.50
1-2	5.7%	7.4%	6.8%	1.09×	13.50
2-2	5.5%	7.4%	6.5%	1.15×	13.50
3-0	5.7%	7.4%	2.8%	2.67×	13.50
3-1	6.4%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.50
Any other score	5.2%	7.4%	5.7%	1.30×	13.50
0-0	4.8%	1.7%	5.8%	0.29×	58.33
0-2	3.0%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.34
0-3	1.1%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.35
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.11×	58.35
1-3	2.1%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.34
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.7%	1.01×	58.35
2-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.34
2-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.35
3-2	3.6%	1.7%	3.5%	0.48×	58.33
3-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.35
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.11×	58.35
4-0	2.8%	1.7%	3.5%	0.48×	58.34
4-1	3.1%	1.7%	2.2%	0.80×	58.34
4-2	1.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.59×	58.34
4-3	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.35
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.5%	3.71×	58.35

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (2nd half DNB)	84.6%	82.6%	55.9%	1.48×	1.21
Elversberg (2nd half DNB)	15.4%	17.4%	44.1%	0.39×	5.75

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg leading at HT (DNB)	58.1%	57.5%	44.2%	1.30×	1.74
Union Berlin leading at HT (DNB)	41.9%	42.5%	55.8%	0.76×	2.35

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin or draw (1X)	78.3%	75.6%	66.5%	1.14×	1.32
Union Berlin or Elversberg (12)	78.0%	75.6%	75.2%	1.00×	1.32
Elversberg or draw (X2)	43.7%	46.0%	58.2%	0.79×	2.17

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg or draw at HT	75.3%	79.4%	62.9%	1.26×	1.26
Union Berlin or draw at HT	65.8%	66.5%	70.6%	0.94×	1.50
Union Berlin or Elversberg at HT	58.9%	57.0%	66.4%	0.86×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin or draw (1UP)	78.3%	84.1%	73.7%	1.14×	1.19
Elversberg or draw (1UP)	43.7%	52.9%	64.9%	0.82×	1.89

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin or draw in 2nd half	88.8%	88.7%	70.7%	1.25×	1.13
Union Berlin or Elversberg in 2nd half	72.6%	73.4%	66.3%	1.11×	1.36
Elversberg or draw in 2nd half	38.6%	41.1%	62.9%	0.65×	2.43

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.3%	58.3%	53.6%	1.09×	1.72
Neither half drawn	42.7%	41.7%	46.4%	0.90×	2.40

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (DNB)	72.2%	71.5%	55.5%	1.29×	1.40
Elversberg (DNB)	27.8%	28.5%	44.5%	0.64×	3.51

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to score first	60.4%	64.5%	51.0%	1.26×	1.55
Elversberg to score first	34.9%	27.3%	43.3%	0.63×	3.67
No goal scored	4.8%	4.4%	5.9%	0.75×	22.70

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.5%	55.0%	59.4%	0.93×	1.82
Not both teams to score	42.5%	45.0%	40.6%	1.11×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.2%	44.4%	49.8%	0.89×	2.25
Not both score & under 2.5	31.1%	34.5%	27.8%	1.24×	2.90
Not both score & over 2.5	11.5%	12.4%	12.9%	0.96×	8.09
Both score & under 2.5	10.2%	12.4%	9.7%	1.27×	8.10

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	82.4%	82.6%	79.7%	1.04×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	17.6%	17.4%	20.3%	0.86×	5.76

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.1%	73.9%	65.2%	1.13×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.9%	26.1%	34.8%	0.75×	3.84

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.6%	60.1%	51.5%	1.17×	1.66
Both score 2nd half only	20.5%	20.7%	28.2%	0.73×	4.83
Both score 1st half only	15.4%	15.3%	13.9%	1.10×	6.54
Both score in both halves	5.4%	6.9%	6.8%	1.01×	14.60

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.1%	80.7%	79.5%	1.01×	1.24
Both teams to score by HT	20.9%	19.3%	20.5%	0.94×	5.18

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.3%	57.4%	67.5%	0.85×	1.74
A half without a goal	40.7%	42.6%	32.5%	1.31×	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.5%	42.1%	38.6%	1.09×	2.38
4-6 goals	32.7%	30.8%	40.0%	0.77×	3.25
0-1 goals	19.2%	20.2%	17.7%	1.14×	4.94
7+ goals	3.5%	1.8%	4.0%	0.46×	54.44

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	31.8%	1.13×	2.78
Elversberg to score exactly 0	32.8%	33.8%	25.5%	1.32×	2.96
Elversberg to score exactly 2	20.4%	22.3%	22.0%	1.01×	4.49
Elversberg to score 3+	10.3%	12.8%	20.9%	0.61×	7.79

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to score 3+	30.4%	32.5%	27.7%	1.17×	3.07
Union Berlin to score exactly 1	28.0%	26.5%	28.9%	0.92×	3.77
Union Berlin to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	22.8%	1.17×	3.77
Union Berlin to score exactly 0	14.5%	14.4%	20.9%	0.69×	6.97

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	41.1%	43.0%	33.6%	1.28×	2.32
Elversberg leading at HT	34.2%	33.5%	29.4%	1.14×	2.98
Union Berlin leading at HT	24.7%	20.6%	37.1%	0.55×	4.86

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin -1: 2	43.7%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Union Berlin -1: 1	33.0%	30.0%	—	—	3.34
Union Berlin -1: X	23.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (0:1)	43.7%	42.7%	58.2%	0.73×	2.34
Union Berlin (0:1)	33.0%	30.0%	24.9%	1.20×	3.34
Draw (0:1)	23.3%	24.2%	17.1%	1.42×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (0:2)	67.0%	72.4%	75.1%	0.96×	1.38
Draw (0:2)	17.2%	15.2%	13.1%	1.17×	6.56
Union Berlin (0:2)	15.8%	15.2%	12.0%	1.27×	6.56

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (0:3)	84.2%	85.4%	88.0%	0.97×	1.17
Draw (0:3)	9.5%	5.8%	5.1%	1.14×	17.22
Union Berlin (0:3)	6.2%	5.8%	7.1%	0.82×	17.28

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg (0:4)	93.8%	94.6%	92.9%	1.02×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	4.2%	1.2%	5.1%	0.24×	82.38
Union Berlin (0:4)	2.1%	1.2%	2.2%	0.56×	82.61

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (1:0)	78.3%	78.6%	66.5%	1.18×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	13.5%	12.8%	16.5%	0.78×	7.84
Elversberg (1:0)	8.2%	6.9%	17.2%	0.40×	14.48

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (2:0)	91.8%	94.0%	82.8%	1.14×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.8%	6.4%	10.0%	0.64×	15.69
Elversberg (2:0)	2.4%	2.3%	7.4%	0.31×	43.55

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	51.0%	50.3%	47.3%	1.06×	1.99
1st half highest scoring	26.0%	26.3%	25.7%	1.02×	3.81
Halves equal	23.0%	24.3%	27.1%	0.90×	4.11

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to concede	67.2%	66.6%	74.5%	0.89×	1.50
Union Berlin clean sheet	32.8%	33.4%	25.5%	1.31×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin clean sheet in 1st half	50.1%	55.1%	54.5%	1.01×	1.81
Union Berlin to concede in 1st half	49.9%	44.9%	45.5%	0.99×	2.23

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin clean sheet in 2nd half	65.4%	67.4%	43.1%	1.56×	1.48
Union Berlin to concede in 2nd half	34.6%	32.6%	56.9%	0.57×	3.07

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin under 3.5 goals	87.0%	87.3%	88.5%	0.99×	1.15
Union Berlin over 0.5 goals	85.5%	87.3%	79.1%	1.10×	1.15
Union Berlin under 2.5 goals	69.6%	67.9%	72.3%	0.94×	1.47
Union Berlin over 1.5 goals	57.5%	58.6%	50.3%	1.17×	1.71
Union Berlin under 1.5 goals	42.5%	41.4%	49.7%	0.83×	2.42
Union Berlin over 2.5 goals	30.4%	32.1%	27.7%	1.16×	3.12
Union Berlin under 0.5 goals	14.5%	12.7%	20.9%	0.61×	7.85
Union Berlin over 3.5 goals	13.0%	12.7%	11.5%	1.10×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin under 1.5 in 1st half	89.7%	90.2%	80.6%	1.12×	1.11
Union Berlin under 0.5 in 1st half	58.2%	57.6%	47.9%	1.20×	1.74
Union Berlin over 0.5 in 1st half	41.8%	42.4%	52.1%	0.81×	2.36
Union Berlin over 1.5 in 1st half	10.3%	9.8%	19.4%	0.51×	10.18

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin scores more in 2nd half	57.9%	57.5%	38.2%	1.50×	1.74
Union Berlin scores equally in both	27.7%	27.9%	36.5%	0.77×	3.58
Union Berlin scores more in 1st half	14.4%	14.4%	25.4%	0.57×	6.94

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	50.4%	51.5%	42.5%	1.21×	1.94
Elversberg (home no bet)	49.6%	48.5%	57.5%	0.84×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin even goals	51.1%	50.7%	52.2%	0.97×	1.97
Union Berlin odd goals	48.9%	49.3%	47.8%	1.03×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.2%	28.4%	23.0%	1.24×	3.52
HT 0-1	20.2%	24.2%	16.5%	1.47×	4.14
HT 1-0	15.8%	18.9%	19.6%	0.96×	5.30
HT 1-1	10.9%	10.8%	9.6%	1.13×	9.24
HT 0-2	7.0%	7.0%	7.2%	0.96×	14.36
Any other HT score	5.0%	6.9%	6.6%	1.05×	14.39
HT 2-0	4.3%	2.4%	9.7%	0.24×	42.25
HT 1-2	3.8%	2.4%	3.5%	0.67×	42.28
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.4%	4.3%	0.55×	42.33
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.4%	1.2%	1.91×	42.46

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Union Berlin at FT	25.2%	26.9%	10.3%	2.60×	3.72
Union Berlin at HT / Union Berlin at FT	22.5%	21.7%	28.5%	0.76×	4.61
Elversberg at HT / Elversberg at FT	16.7%	16.8%	20.3%	0.82×	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	11.3%	12.6%	13.7%	0.92×	7.92
Elversberg at HT / Draw at FT	8.9%	6.1%	6.0%	1.02×	16.39
Elversberg at HT / Union Berlin at FT	8.6%	6.1%	3.4%	1.80×	16.40
Draw at HT / Elversberg at FT	4.6%	3.5%	9.9%	0.35×	28.83
Union Berlin at HT / Draw at FT	1.8%	3.5%	5.2%	0.66×	28.93
Union Berlin at HT / Elversberg at FT	0.4%	3.5%	3.7%	0.93×	28.99

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to score last	60.3%	62.1%	49.9%	1.24×	1.61
Elversberg to score last	34.9%	33.0%	44.4%	0.74×	3.03
No goal scored	4.8%	4.4%	5.9%	0.75×	22.70

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.2%	95.5%	94.1%	1.01×	1.05
Union Berlin to lead by 1 at any time	70.4%	73.7%	59.9%	1.23×	1.36
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	53.4%	50.9%	56.1%	0.91×	1.96
Elversberg to lead by 1 at any time	40.8%	39.1%	52.5%	0.74×	2.56
Union Berlin to lead by 2 at any time	40.2%	39.1%	33.3%	1.17×	2.56
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	22.4%	19.7%	25.7%	0.76×	5.08
Union Berlin to lead by 3 at any time	18.8%	15.1%	15.7%	0.96×	6.64
Elversberg to lead by 2 at any time	13.5%	10.5%	23.6%	0.44×	9.55
Elversberg to lead by 3 at any time	3.6%	1.7%	10.2%	0.16×	60.06

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.4%	87.4%	83.2%	1.05×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.2%	78.7%	78.5%	1.00×	1.27
1-4 goals	76.0%	78.7%	72.2%	1.09×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.9%	72.4%	71.4%	1.01×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.5%	63.4%	60.3%	1.05×	1.58
1-3 goals	59.0%	59.1%	50.5%	1.17×	1.69
3-6 goals	55.2%	59.1%	58.8%	1.01×	1.69
3-5 goals	49.9%	48.6%	51.7%	0.94×	2.06
2-3 goals	44.5%	43.6%	38.6%	1.13×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.5%	39.2%	40.6%	0.96×	2.55
1-2 goals	36.6%	39.2%	31.7%	1.24×	2.55
4-6 goals	32.7%	35.2%	40.0%	0.88×	2.84
4-5 goals	27.5%	30.3%	32.9%	0.92×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.7%	18.8%	18.3%	1.03×	5.33
7+ goals	3.5%	2.6%	4.0%	0.64×	39.17

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin never behind	54.5%	62.7%	47.5%	1.32×	1.59
Elversberg never behind	24.8%	24.8%	40.1%	0.62×	4.04

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	45.1%	1.13×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	54.9%	0.89×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.7%	52.2%	0.99×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.3%	47.8%	1.01×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.3%	51.9%	53.2%	0.98×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.7%	48.1%	46.8%	1.03×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.2%	95.4%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	91.2%	92.3%	88.9%	1.04×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	80.8%	82.3%	82.3%	1.00×	1.22
Under 4.5 goals	80.8%	82.3%	77.8%	1.06×	1.22
Under 3.5 goals	63.7%	61.7%	56.2%	1.10×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	58.7%	58.6%	62.6%	0.94×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	41.3%	41.4%	37.4%	1.11×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	36.3%	38.3%	43.8%	0.87×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	19.2%	17.7%	17.7%	1.00×	5.65
Over 4.5 goals	19.2%	17.7%	22.2%	0.80×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	8.8%	7.7%	11.1%	0.70×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	4.8%	4.6%	5.8%	0.78×	21.81

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.3%	97.2%	95.7%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.2%	92.4%	87.5%	1.06×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.8%	75.9%	71.7%	1.06×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	75.3%	75.9%	78.0%	0.97×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	53.2%	51.9%	46.0%	1.13×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	46.8%	48.1%	54.0%	0.89×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	24.7%	24.1%	22.0%	1.09×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.2%	24.1%	28.3%	0.85×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.8%	7.6%	12.5%	0.61×	13.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.7%	2.8%	4.3%	0.65×	35.68

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.2%	88.9%	84.7%	1.05×	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.8%	71.5%	77.0%	0.93×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.1%	68.7%	58.7%	1.17×	1.46
Over 1.5 in 1st half	34.9%	31.3%	41.3%	0.76×	3.19
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.2%	28.5%	23.0%	1.24×	3.51
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.8%	11.1%	15.3%	0.73×	8.99

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.7%	83.0%	84.6%	0.98×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	72.7%	77.7%	73.2%	1.06×	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	54.1%	53.1%	55.8%	0.95×	1.89
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	45.9%	46.9%	44.2%	1.06×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	27.3%	22.3%	26.8%	0.83×	4.48
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.3%	17.0%	15.4%	1.10×	5.88

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg not to score in both halves	82.7%	84.1%	72.1%	1.17×	1.19
Union Berlin not to score in both halves	68.7%	70.2%	64.4%	1.09×	1.42
Union Berlin to score in both halves	31.3%	29.8%	35.6%	0.84×	3.36
Elversberg to score in both halves	17.3%	15.9%	27.9%	0.57×	6.30

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	57.5%	58.7%	59.4%	0.99×	1.70
Only Union Berlin scores	28.0%	26.0%	19.8%	1.31×	3.84
Only Elversberg scores	9.8%	7.1%	15.2%	0.47×	14.02
Neither team scores	4.8%	4.7%	5.8%	0.80×	21.49

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	18.9%	1.19×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	22.1%	22.6%	19.8%	1.14×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.1%	17.4%	21.8%	0.80×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	14.5%	12.1%	12.0%	1.01×	8.25
Exactly 5 goals	10.4%	12.1%	11.2%	1.08×	8.26
6 or more goals	8.8%	7.6%	11.1%	0.69×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	4.8%	4.5%	5.8%	0.77×	22.34

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.9%	37.2%	35.9%	1.04×	2.69
No goals in 1st half	29.2%	28.4%	23.0%	1.23×	3.53
2 goals in 1st half	22.1%	21.6%	26.2%	0.82×	4.63
3+ goals in 1st half	12.8%	11.0%	15.3%	0.72×	9.07

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	54.1%	51.3%	55.8%	0.92×	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	29.6%	29.8%	29.0%	1.03×	3.36
No goals in 2nd half	16.3%	16.9%	15.4%	1.10×	5.92

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg not to win both halves	96.2%	97.1%	90.8%	1.07×	1.03
Union Berlin not to win both halves	84.9%	84.1%	83.8%	1.00×	1.19
Union Berlin to win both halves	15.1%	15.9%	16.2%	0.98×	6.29
Elversberg to win both halves	3.8%	2.9%	9.2%	0.31×	34.56

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to win either half	70.9%	72.9%	58.1%	1.25×	1.37
Elversberg to win neither half	58.4%	59.1%	50.5%	1.17×	1.69
Elversberg to win either half	41.6%	40.9%	49.5%	0.83×	2.44
Union Berlin to win neither half	29.1%	27.1%	41.9%	0.65×	3.69

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Elversberg not to win to nil	90.2%	92.1%	84.8%	1.09×	1.09
Union Berlin not to win to nil	72.0%	75.3%	80.2%	0.94×	1.33
Union Berlin to win to nil	28.0%	24.7%	19.8%	1.24×	4.06
Elversberg to win to nil	9.8%	7.9%	15.2%	0.52×	12.60

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin by 1	23.3%	24.1%	17.1%	1.41×	4.15
Draw	22.0%	24.1%	24.8%	0.97×	4.15
Union Berlin by 2	17.2%	17.0%	13.1%	1.30×	5.87
Union Berlin by 3+	15.8%	17.0%	12.0%	1.42×	5.87
Elversberg by 1	13.5%	11.8%	16.5%	0.71×	8.51
Elversberg by 2	5.8%	7.2%	10.0%	0.72×	13.90
Elversberg by 3+	2.4%	2.7%	7.4%	0.37×	36.71

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Union Berlin 1.26 xGElversberg 0.28 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Union Berlin attacking right Elversberg attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
1'	Union Berlin	Felix Uduokhai	0.07	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Woo-Yeong Jeong
9'	Union Berlin	Tim Skarke	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
14'	Union Berlin	Tim Skarke	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Janik Haberer
25'	Union Berlin	Andras Schafer	0.03	Direct Freekick	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
29'	Union Berlin	Felix Uduokhai	0.02	From Corner	—	Saved Shot	Kastriot Imeri
34'	Elversberg	Maximilian Rohr	0.03	From Corner	—	Shot On Post	Luca Sirch
46'	Elversberg	Noah Darvich	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Lasse Günther
46'	Union Berlin	Andras Schafer	0.02	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Woo-Yeong Jeong
48'	Elversberg	Lasse Günther	0.04	From Corner	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Felix Keidel
48'	Elversberg	Noel Futkeu	0.08	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
55'	Union Berlin	Kastriot Imeri	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—
55'	Union Berlin	Woo-Yeong Jeong	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
55'	Union Berlin	Woo-Yeong Jeong	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Michel Aebischer
57'	Union Berlin	Zeno Van den Bosch	0.07	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Kastriot Imeri
61'	Union Berlin	Tom Rothe	0.08	From Corner	—	Blocked Shot	Michel Aebischer
61'	Union Berlin	Tom Rothe	0.10	From Corner	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
65'	Union Berlin	Livan Burcu	0.09	Open Play	Left Foot	Blocked Shot	Rani Khedira
69'	Elversberg	Maurice Krattenmacher	0.07	Open Play	Left Foot	Shot On Post	Lasse Günther
78'	Union Berlin	Mekhi Gray	0.14	Open Play	—	Missed Shot	Christopher Trimmel
79'	Union Berlin	Janik Haberer	0.09	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Tom Rothe
80'	Union Berlin	Livan Burcu	0.04	From Corner	Right Foot	Goal	—
81'	Elversberg	Cole Campbell	0.02	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Felix Keidel
82'	Elversberg	Lukas Pinckert	0.02	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Lukasz Poreba
85'	Union Berlin	Andras Schafer	0.07	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—
85'	Union Berlin	Livan Burcu	0.13	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	Oliver Burke
85'	Union Berlin	Rani Khedira	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Blocked Shot	—

Players

Union Berlin

Player	Min	G	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Tom Rothe DL	90	0	2	1	0.18	0.09	0.22
Andras Schafer DMC	90	0	3	0	0.12	0.00	0.45
Janik Haberer DR	90	0	1	1	0.09	0.02	0.26
Felix Uduokhai DC	90	0	2	0	0.09	0.00	0.07
Zeno Van den Bosch DC	90	0	1	0	0.07	0.00	0.00
Rani Khedira DMC	90	0	1	1	0.06	0.09	0.26
Frederik Rönnow GK	90	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.13
Woo-Yeong Jeong AMC	80	0	2	2	0.13	0.09	0.14
Tim Skarke FW	80	0	2	0	0.07	0.00	0.09
Michel Aebischer AMR	80	0	0	2	0.00	0.15	0.07
Kastriot Imeri AML	61	0	1	2	0.05	0.09	0.05
Livan Burcu Sub	29	1	3	0	0.26	0.00	0.31
Mekhi Gray Sub	10	0	1	0	0.14	0.00	0.27
Christopher Trimmel Sub	10	0	0	1	0.00	0.14	0.27
Oliver Burke Sub	10	0	0	1	0.00	0.13	0.22
Aljoscha Kemlein Sub	1	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Elversberg

Player	Min	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Maximilian Rohr DC	90	1	0	0.03	0.00	0.00
Lukas Pinckert DC	90	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.00
Nicolas Kristof GK	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Felix Keidel DMC	90	0	2	0.00	0.05	0.08
Lukasz Poreba DMC	90	0	1	0.00	0.02	0.07
Lukas Petkov AMR	90	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.12
Luca Sirch DR	88	0	1	0.00	0.03	0.00
Noah Darvich AMC	73	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.04
Lasse Günther DL	73	1	2	0.04	0.11	0.11
Noel Futkeu FW	72	1	0	0.08	0.00	0.00
Tom Zimmerschied AML	61	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Maurice Krattenmacher Sub	29	1	0	0.07	0.00	0.07
Cole Campbell Sub	18	1	0	0.02	0.00	0.02
Nicholas Mickelson Sub	17	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
David Mokwa Sub	17	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Frederik Schmahl Sub	2	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Union Berlin v Elversberg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

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Elversberg

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