Union Berlin v Hamburger SV — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 December 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2627

Bundesliga xG Prediction generated 18 Sep 2026, 10:37 UTC

Union Berlin

14:30 UTC

Hamburger SV

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 23 Oct, 10:58 · 1,036h before kick-off

Union Berlin win

49.3%

model 49.8%

Draw

23.0%

model 23.9%

Hamburger SV win

27.7%

model 26.2%

492328

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (522 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.3%
1-0 9.6%
2-1 9.6%
2-0 8.2%
0-1 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	54.8%	Under 2.5	45.2%
BTTS yes	56.4%	BTTS no	43.6%
Union Berlin 1+	81.8%	Union Berlin 2+	50.8%
Hamburger SV 1+	69.0%	Hamburger SV 2+	32.7%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

93/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

1-3 goals

Multi goal · usually 50%

62.1% fair odds 1.61

strong signal · 3852 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 85%

84.1% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 387 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Union Berlin have created 1.38 xG a match over their last five while Hamburger SV have allowed 1.99.
At home Union Berlin average 1.77 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Union Berlin have an estimated 49.3% win probability, against 27.7% for Hamburger SV and 23.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.70 for Union Berlin and 1.17 for Hamburger SV.

Why Union Berlin

Union Berlin have created 1.38 xG a match over their last five while Hamburger SV have allowed 1.99. At home Union Berlin average 1.77 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.0%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Hamburger SV can win

Hamburger SV carry the stronger rating, 1492 Elo against 1458. Hamburger SV have created 1.29 xG a match over their last five while Union Berlin have allowed 2.30. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five. Away from home Hamburger SV average 1.08 xG a match.

Key players

Union Berlin's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Andrej Ilic (0.44), Oliver Burke (0.22), Leopold Querfeld (0.20). Hamburger SV's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Fábio Vieira (0.34), Ransford Königsdörffer (0.23), Albert Grønbæk (0.21).

Availability

3 of Union Berlin's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Union Berlin's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Hamburger SV's top three contributors did not start their last match. 36% of Hamburger SV's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Union Berlin: 43% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.46 xG a match from set pieces. Hamburger SV: 38% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 19.0 faced, 0.53 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-10-23 14:52 · team_stats 2026-10-20 06:04 · availability 2026-10-23 14:58 · prediction 2026-09-18 10:37 ·

Union Berlin are the model's most likely outcome at 49.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.3%. Confidence 93/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Live TV

333 sports channels, playing now →

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Union Berlin have scored 15 from 13.8 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDWWDLLLWD last 10 scored 15 from 13.8 xG conceded 23 from 23.0 xG

Hamburger SV have scored 13 from 12.9 expected and conceded 21 from 19.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LWWDLLLWWW last 10 scored 13 from 12.9 xG conceded 21 from 19.9 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	502426	1.70–1.17	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	482527	1.60–1.14	1-1 12%	52%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to win	54.3%	51.5%	42.0%	1.23×	1.94
Draw	23.0%	24.4%	24.7%	0.99×	4.09
Hamburger SV to win	22.8%	24.4%	33.5%	0.73×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin & not both score	27.9%	25.2%	19.9%	1.27×	3.97
Union Berlin & both teams score	26.3%	25.2%	22.3%	1.13×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	17.6%	18.0%	19.0%	0.95×	5.56
Hamburger SV & both teams score	12.0%	13.3%	18.5%	0.72×	7.54
Hamburger SV & not both score	10.8%	13.3%	15.1%	0.88×	7.54
Draw & not both score	5.4%	8.3%	5.8%	1.43×	12.02

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin & over 1.5	44.4%	40.3%	35.7%	1.13×	2.48
Union Berlin & over 2.5	35.5%	34.9%	29.9%	1.17×	2.87
Union Berlin & under 3.5	34.0%	30.8%	21.8%	1.41×	3.25
Union Berlin & over 3.5	20.2%	21.6%	20.3%	1.06×	4.63
Union Berlin & under 2.5	18.8%	18.0%	12.3%	1.47×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.6%	18.0%	19.0%	0.95×	5.56
Hamburger SV & over 1.5	16.9%	18.0%	27.7%	0.65×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.2%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.2%	18.0%	15.1%	1.19×	5.56
Hamburger SV & under 3.5	16.3%	18.0%	19.4%	0.93×	5.56
Hamburger SV & over 2.5	13.6%	12.8%	23.5%	0.55×	7.79
Union Berlin & under 1.5	9.8%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.63
Hamburger SV & under 2.5	9.2%	7.9%	10.2%	0.78×	12.63
Draw & over 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	9.7%	0.81×	12.63
Draw & over 3.5	6.8%	7.9%	9.7%	0.81×	12.63
Hamburger SV & under 1.5	5.9%	7.9%	6.0%	1.32×	12.63
Hamburger SV & over 3.5	6.5%	7.9%	14.2%	0.56×	12.63
Draw & under 1.5	5.4%	7.9%	5.8%	1.36×	12.63

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (1UP)	68.5%	70.2%	60.2%	1.17×	1.42
Hamburger SV (1UP)	41.3%	38.4%	52.2%	0.74×	2.60

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (2UP)	54.3%	55.2%	45.4%	1.22×	1.81
Hamburger SV (2UP)	22.8%	23.4%	36.5%	0.64×	4.27

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to win 2nd half	46.1%	45.8%	37.4%	1.22×	2.19
2nd half drawn	33.7%	34.4%	33.5%	1.02×	2.91
Hamburger SV to win 2nd half	20.2%	24.0%	29.2%	0.82×	4.17

2nd half away goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV under 1.5 in 2nd half	88.6%	87.1%	79.3%	1.10×	1.15
Hamburger SV under 0.5 in 2nd half	56.2%	54.5%	43.4%	1.26×	1.84
Hamburger SV over 0.5 in 2nd half	43.8%	45.5%	56.6%	0.80×	2.20
Hamburger SV over 1.5 in 2nd half	11.4%	12.9%	20.7%	0.63×	7.74

2nd half home goals O/U 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin under 1.5 in 2nd half	72.2%	74.0%	74.4%	0.99×	1.35
Union Berlin over 0.5 in 2nd half	64.6%	63.4%	63.2%	1.00×	1.58
Union Berlin under 0.5 in 2nd half	35.4%	36.6%	36.8%	0.99×	2.73
Union Berlin over 1.5 in 2nd half	27.8%	26.0%	25.6%	1.02×	3.84

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV (+2.5)	85.9%	88.5%	88.0%	1.00×	1.13
Union Berlin (+0.5)	77.2%	78.5%	66.5%	1.18×	1.27
Hamburger SV (+1.5)	69.3%	68.7%	75.5%	0.91×	1.46
Union Berlin (-0.5)	54.3%	52.4%	42.0%	1.25×	1.91
Hamburger SV (+0.5)	45.7%	47.6%	58.0%	0.82×	2.10
Union Berlin (-1.5)	30.7%	31.3%	24.5%	1.28×	3.19
Hamburger SV (-0.5)	22.8%	21.5%	33.5%	0.64×	4.65
Union Berlin (-2.5)	14.1%	11.5%	12.0%	0.97×	8.66

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV to concede	83.8%	81.5%	79.2%	1.03×	1.23
Hamburger SV clean sheet	16.2%	18.5%	20.8%	0.89×	5.42

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV to concede in 1st half	54.3%	50.8%	51.9%	0.98×	1.97
Hamburger SV clean sheet in 1st half	45.7%	49.2%	48.1%	1.02×	2.03

Away clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV to concede in 2nd half	64.6%	62.0%	63.2%	0.98×	1.61
Hamburger SV clean sheet in 2nd half	35.4%	38.0%	36.8%	1.03×	2.63

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV under 6.5 corners	85.5%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Hamburger SV under 5.5 corners	76.0%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Hamburger SV over 2.5 corners	71.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Hamburger SV under 4.5 corners	62.7%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Hamburger SV over 3.5 corners	53.9%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Hamburger SV under 3.5 corners	46.1%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Hamburger SV over 4.5 corners	37.3%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Hamburger SV under 2.5 corners	28.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Hamburger SV over 5.5 corners	24.0%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Hamburger SV over 6.5 corners	14.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV under 3.5 goals	97.4%	97.5%	92.7%	1.05×	1.03
Hamburger SV under 2.5 goals	90.1%	92.3%	79.1%	1.17×	1.08
Hamburger SV under 1.5 goals	69.9%	68.0%	57.1%	1.19×	1.47
Hamburger SV over 0.5 goals	66.7%	68.0%	74.4%	0.91×	1.47
Hamburger SV under 0.5 goals	33.3%	32.0%	25.6%	1.25×	3.12
Hamburger SV over 1.5 goals	30.1%	32.0%	42.9%	0.75×	3.13
Hamburger SV over 2.5 goals	9.9%	7.7%	20.9%	0.37×	13.03
Hamburger SV over 3.5 goals	2.6%	2.5%	7.3%	0.34×	39.90

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV under 1.5 in 1st half	90.3%	93.9%	85.8%	1.10×	1.07
Hamburger SV under 0.5 in 1st half	59.3%	62.1%	54.3%	1.14×	1.61
Hamburger SV over 0.5 in 1st half	40.7%	37.9%	45.7%	0.83×	2.64
Hamburger SV over 1.5 in 1st half	9.7%	6.1%	14.2%	0.43×	16.49

Away highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV scores equally in both	44.1%	43.8%	39.5%	1.11×	2.29
Hamburger SV scores more in 2nd half	29.7%	26.3%	36.5%	0.72×	3.80
Hamburger SV scores more in 1st half	26.1%	26.2%	24.1%	1.09×	3.82

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (away no bet)	70.3%	68.3%	63.0%	1.08×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	29.7%	31.7%	37.0%	0.86×	3.16

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV even goals	55.5%	56.9%	53.5%	1.06×	1.76
Hamburger SV odd goals	44.5%	43.1%	46.5%	0.93×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.0%	82.9%	75.2%	1.10×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.0%	17.1%	24.9%	0.69×	5.85

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.5%	68.4%	72.3%	0.95×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	32.5%	31.6%	27.7%	1.14×	3.17

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	60.3%	59.9%	66.5%	0.90×	1.67
Union Berlin to score 2+ in a row	46.0%	46.0%	42.5%	1.08×	2.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.9%	19.7%	29.3%	0.67×	5.09
Hamburger SV to score 2+ in a row	21.1%	19.6%	34.4%	0.57×	5.10
Union Berlin to score 3+ in a row	19.1%	16.3%	17.8%	0.91×	6.14
Hamburger SV to score 3+ in a row	5.1%	5.5%	12.4%	0.44×	18.15

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin corners (+3.5)	91.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Union Berlin corners (+2.5)	86.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Union Berlin corners (+1.5)	80.0%	74.8%	—	—	1.34
Hamburger SV corners (+3.5)	70.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Hamburger SV corners (+2.5)	61.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Hamburger SV corners (+1.5)	50.2%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Union Berlin corners (-1.5)	49.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Union Berlin corners (-2.5)	38.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Union Berlin corners (-3.5)	29.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Hamburger SV corners (-1.5)	20.0%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Hamburger SV corners (-2.5)	13.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.44
Hamburger SV corners (-3.5)	8.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	41.4%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
9-11 corners	30.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.21
12+ corners	28.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	78.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	71.4%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	69.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Under 10.5 corners	62.4%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	58.6%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	52.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	47.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	41.4%	42.1%	—	—	2.38
Over 10.5 corners	37.6%	36.8%	—	—	2.72
Under 7.5 corners	30.7%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
Over 11.5 corners	28.6%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	21.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.1%	—	—	2.00
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.8%	11.5%	9.4%	1.22×	8.72
1-0	9.8%	7.4%	6.4%	1.15×	13.50
2-0	8.9%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.51
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	7.2%	1.03×	13.50
0-0	5.4%	7.4%	5.8%	1.27×	13.51
0-1	5.9%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.51
1-2	5.9%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.51
2-2	5.4%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.51
3-0	5.4%	7.4%	2.7%	2.75×	13.51
3-1	6.0%	7.4%	6.0%	1.24×	13.51
0-2	3.3%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.30
0-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.31
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.32
1-3	2.2%	1.7%	4.6%	0.37×	58.31
1-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.32
2-3	2.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.31
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.64×	58.32
3-2	3.3%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.30
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.8%	0.60×	58.31
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.32
4-0	2.5%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.31
4-1	2.7%	1.7%	2.1%	0.82×	58.30
4-2	1.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.64×	58.31
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.64×	58.32
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.4%	3.82×	58.32
Any other score	4.3%	1.7%	5.8%	0.29×	58.29

DNB 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (2nd half DNB)	69.6%	67.3%	56.2%	1.20×	1.49
Hamburger SV (2nd half DNB)	30.4%	32.7%	43.8%	0.75×	3.06

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin leading at HT (DNB)	63.2%	65.9%	55.6%	1.19×	1.52
Hamburger SV leading at HT (DNB)	36.8%	34.1%	44.4%	0.77×	2.93

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin or draw (1X)	77.2%	75.6%	66.5%	1.14×	1.32
Union Berlin or Hamburger SV (12)	77.0%	75.6%	75.3%	1.00×	1.32
Hamburger SV or draw (X2)	45.7%	48.5%	58.0%	0.84×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin or draw at HT	77.7%	79.3%	70.7%	1.12×	1.26
Hamburger SV or draw at HT	61.7%	61.4%	63.3%	0.97×	1.63
Union Berlin or Hamburger SV at HT	60.6%	61.3%	65.9%	0.93×	1.63

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin or draw (1UP)	77.2%	84.1%	73.8%	1.14×	1.19
Hamburger SV or draw (1UP)	45.7%	53.2%	64.7%	0.82×	1.88

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin or draw in 2nd half	79.8%	76.0%	70.8%	1.07×	1.32
Union Berlin or Hamburger SV in 2nd half	66.3%	65.6%	66.5%	0.99×	1.52
Hamburger SV or draw in 2nd half	53.9%	54.2%	62.6%	0.87×	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.8%	58.5%	54.0%	1.08×	1.71
Neither half drawn	40.2%	41.5%	46.0%	0.90×	2.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (DNB)	70.4%	71.4%	55.6%	1.28×	1.40
Hamburger SV (DNB)	29.6%	28.6%	44.4%	0.64×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to score first	59.0%	62.3%	51.2%	1.22×	1.61
Hamburger SV to score first	35.6%	32.7%	43.1%	0.76×	3.06
No goal scored	5.4%	7.4%	5.8%	1.27×	13.53

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.9%	55.0%	59.5%	0.92×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.1%	45.0%	40.5%	1.11×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	45.1%	44.3%	50.2%	0.88×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	33.3%	34.5%	28.0%	1.24×	2.90
Both score & under 2.5	10.8%	12.4%	9.4%	1.31×	8.09
Not both score & over 2.5	10.8%	12.4%	12.7%	0.97×	8.09

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.7%	82.6%	79.2%	1.04×	1.21
Both teams to score 2+	16.3%	17.4%	20.8%	0.84×	5.75

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.7%	73.6%	65.0%	1.13×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.3%	26.4%	35.0%	0.75×	3.79

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.8%	59.8%	51.2%	1.17×	1.67
Both score 2nd half only	22.1%	21.3%	28.3%	0.75×	4.70
Both score 1st half only	15.8%	14.9%	13.9%	1.07×	6.71
Both score in both halves	6.3%	6.8%	6.9%	0.98×	14.75

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.9%	81.0%	79.3%	1.02×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	22.1%	19.0%	20.7%	0.92×	5.27

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	58.4%	57.3%	67.5%	0.85×	1.74
A half without a goal	41.6%	42.7%	32.5%	1.31×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.4%	47.2%	38.3%	1.23×	2.12
4-6 goals	30.5%	30.7%	39.8%	0.77×	3.26
0-1 goals	21.1%	22.9%	17.9%	1.28×	4.37
7+ goals	3.0%	1.8%	4.3%	0.43×	54.21

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV to score exactly 1	36.6%	35.9%	31.7%	1.13×	2.78
Hamburger SV to score exactly 0	33.3%	33.8%	25.6%	1.32×	2.96
Hamburger SV to score exactly 2	20.1%	22.3%	22.1%	1.01×	4.49
Hamburger SV to score 3+	9.9%	8.6%	20.9%	0.41×	11.67

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to score exactly 1	29.5%	26.6%	28.7%	0.93×	3.77
Union Berlin to score 3+	27.5%	26.5%	27.5%	0.97×	3.77
Union Berlin to score exactly 2	26.8%	26.5%	23.3%	1.14×	3.77
Union Berlin to score exactly 0	16.2%	18.8%	20.8%	0.90×	5.33

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	39.4%	38.7%	34.1%	1.13×	2.59
Union Berlin leading at HT	38.3%	38.6%	36.7%	1.05×	2.59
Hamburger SV leading at HT	22.3%	20.7%	29.3%	0.71×	4.82

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin -1: 2	45.7%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Union Berlin -1: 1	30.7%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Union Berlin -1: X	23.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV (0:1)	45.7%	46.1%	58.0%	0.80×	2.17
Union Berlin (0:1)	30.7%	30.1%	24.5%	1.23×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	23.5%	24.2%	17.6%	1.37×	4.13

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV (0:2)	69.3%	72.3%	75.5%	0.96×	1.38
Draw (0:2)	16.6%	15.3%	12.7%	1.20×	6.54
Union Berlin (0:2)	14.1%	11.0%	12.0%	0.92×	9.09

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV (0:3)	85.9%	90.6%	88.0%	1.03×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.8%	5.8%	4.9%	1.18×	17.19
Union Berlin (0:3)	5.4%	5.8%	7.2%	0.81×	17.24

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV (0:4)	94.6%	94.6%	92.8%	1.02×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.6%	1.2%	4.9%	0.25×	81.70
Union Berlin (0:4)	1.7%	1.2%	2.4%	0.51×	81.91

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (1:0)	77.2%	78.7%	66.5%	1.18×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	14.2%	12.7%	16.7%	0.76×	7.87
Hamburger SV (1:0)	8.6%	6.9%	16.9%	0.41×	14.48

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin (2:0)	91.4%	94.0%	83.1%	1.13×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	6.1%	6.4%	9.9%	0.65×	15.70
Hamburger SV (2:0)	2.5%	2.3%	7.2%	0.32×	43.67

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	44.7%	44.8%	47.5%	0.94×	2.23
1st half highest scoring	31.0%	29.5%	25.9%	1.14×	3.40
Halves equal	24.4%	24.5%	26.8%	0.91×	4.08

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to concede	66.7%	66.7%	74.4%	0.90×	1.50
Union Berlin clean sheet	33.3%	33.3%	25.6%	1.30×	3.00

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin clean sheet in 1st half	59.3%	62.1%	54.3%	1.14×	1.61
Union Berlin to concede in 1st half	40.7%	37.9%	45.7%	0.83×	2.64

Home clean sheet 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin clean sheet in 2nd half	56.2%	54.9%	43.4%	1.26×	1.82
Union Berlin to concede in 2nd half	43.8%	45.1%	56.6%	0.80×	2.22

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin over 2.5 corners	86.5%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Union Berlin over 3.5 corners	74.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Union Berlin under 6.5 corners	66.1%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Union Berlin over 4.5 corners	60.6%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Union Berlin under 5.5 corners	53.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Union Berlin over 5.5 corners	46.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Union Berlin under 4.5 corners	39.4%	37.8%	—	—	2.65
Union Berlin over 6.5 corners	33.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
Union Berlin under 3.5 corners	25.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
Union Berlin under 2.5 corners	13.5%	13.8%	—	—	7.26

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin under 3.5 goals	88.8%	87.3%	88.3%	0.99×	1.15
Union Berlin over 0.5 goals	83.8%	82.2%	79.2%	1.04×	1.22
Union Berlin under 2.5 goals	72.5%	74.2%	72.5%	1.02×	1.35
Union Berlin over 1.5 goals	54.3%	53.2%	50.7%	1.05×	1.88
Union Berlin under 1.5 goals	45.7%	46.8%	49.3%	0.95×	2.14
Union Berlin over 2.5 goals	27.5%	25.8%	27.5%	0.94×	3.88
Union Berlin under 0.5 goals	16.2%	17.8%	20.8%	0.86×	5.62
Union Berlin over 3.5 goals	11.2%	12.7%	11.7%	1.09×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin under 1.5 in 1st half	81.5%	83.9%	80.5%	1.04×	1.19
Union Berlin over 0.5 in 1st half	54.3%	50.6%	51.9%	0.97×	1.98
Union Berlin under 0.5 in 1st half	45.7%	49.4%	48.1%	1.03×	2.02
Union Berlin over 1.5 in 1st half	18.5%	16.1%	19.5%	0.83×	6.21

Home highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin scores more in 2nd half	40.8%	42.2%	38.2%	1.11×	2.37
Union Berlin scores equally in both	32.3%	33.2%	36.8%	0.90×	3.02
Union Berlin scores more in 1st half	27.0%	27.7%	25.2%	1.10×	3.61

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	50.2%	51.3%	42.4%	1.21×	1.95
Hamburger SV (home no bet)	49.8%	48.7%	57.6%	0.85×	2.06

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin even goals	51.3%	50.7%	52.8%	0.96×	1.97
Union Berlin odd goals	48.7%	49.3%	47.2%	1.04×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.1%	28.2%	23.1%	1.22×	3.54
HT 1-0	21.2%	24.3%	19.2%	1.27×	4.11
HT 0-1	14.2%	11.0%	16.6%	0.66×	9.10
HT 1-1	11.1%	11.0%	9.9%	1.11×	9.12
HT 2-0	8.3%	6.9%	9.4%	0.73×	14.46
Any other HT score	6.0%	6.9%	6.9%	1.00×	14.49
HT 2-1	4.3%	2.4%	4.2%	0.57×	42.01
HT 0-2	3.7%	2.4%	7.2%	0.33×	42.05
HT 1-2	2.9%	2.4%	3.4%	0.69×	42.11
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.4%	1.3%	1.76×	42.22

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin at HT / Union Berlin at FT	32.6%	32.3%	28.1%	1.15×	3.10
Draw at HT / Union Berlin at FT	18.2%	16.8%	10.9%	1.53×	5.97
Hamburger SV at HT / Hamburger SV at FT	13.5%	12.7%	20.4%	0.62×	7.90
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.3%	12.7%	13.6%	0.93×	7.90
Draw at HT / Hamburger SV at FT	7.9%	6.0%	9.9%	0.61×	16.60
Hamburger SV at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	6.0%	1.00×	16.67
Union Berlin at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	5.2%	0.67×	28.63
Hamburger SV at HT / Union Berlin at FT	3.5%	3.5%	3.3%	1.06×	28.66
Union Berlin at HT / Hamburger SV at FT	1.3%	3.5%	3.6%	0.97×	28.74

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to score last	59.0%	56.5%	50.0%	1.13×	1.77
Hamburger SV to score last	35.6%	38.6%	44.3%	0.87×	2.59
No goal scored	5.4%	7.4%	5.8%	1.27×	13.53

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.6%	92.7%	94.2%	0.98×	1.08
Union Berlin to lead by 1 at any time	68.5%	69.5%	60.2%	1.15×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	51.1%	50.8%	55.7%	0.91×	1.97
Hamburger SV to lead by 1 at any time	41.3%	39.1%	52.2%	0.75×	2.56
Union Berlin to lead by 2 at any time	37.7%	34.6%	32.9%	1.05×	2.89
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.6%	19.6%	25.4%	0.77×	5.10
Union Berlin to lead by 3 at any time	16.9%	14.9%	15.7%	0.95×	6.70
Hamburger SV to lead by 2 at any time	13.7%	10.5%	23.5%	0.45×	9.54
Hamburger SV to lead by 3 at any time	3.7%	1.6%	9.9%	0.17×	61.10

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin most corners	60.8%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Hamburger SV most corners	28.8%	31.1%	—	—	3.21
Corners level	10.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.0%	87.4%	83.0%	1.05×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.5%	78.7%	71.9%	1.09×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.9%	78.7%	77.9%	1.01×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.3%	72.4%	70.9%	1.02×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.3%	59.8%	1.06×	1.58
1-3 goals	61.1%	63.3%	50.4%	1.26×	1.58
3-6 goals	52.9%	53.2%	58.6%	0.91×	1.88
3-5 goals	48.3%	48.5%	51.6%	0.94×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.4%	48.5%	38.3%	1.27×	2.06
1-2 goals	38.7%	39.2%	31.5%	1.24×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.7%	39.2%	40.5%	0.97×	2.55
4-6 goals	30.5%	35.2%	39.8%	0.89×	2.84
4-5 goals	25.9%	30.2%	32.7%	0.92×	3.31
5-6 goals	14.2%	14.8%	18.2%	0.81×	6.75
7+ goals	3.0%	2.6%	4.3%	0.59×	39.09

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin never behind	53.3%	62.5%	47.8%	1.31×	1.60
Hamburger SV never behind	26.1%	29.9%	39.8%	0.75×	3.34

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.9%	45.7%	1.11×	1.96
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.1%	54.3%	0.90×	2.04

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.7%	51.6%	52.5%	0.98×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.3%	48.4%	47.5%	1.02×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	51.9%	53.0%	0.98×	1.93
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	48.1%	47.0%	1.02×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.6%	92.3%	94.2%	0.98×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	88.6%	1.04×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	82.9%	82.3%	77.6%	1.06×	1.22
Over 1.5 goals	78.9%	77.3%	82.1%	0.94×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	66.5%	66.3%	56.1%	1.18×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	55.9%	58.6%	62.8%	0.93×	1.71
Under 2.5 goals	44.1%	41.4%	37.2%	1.11×	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	33.5%	33.7%	43.9%	0.77×	2.97
Under 1.5 goals	21.1%	22.7%	17.9%	1.26×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	17.1%	17.7%	22.4%	0.79×	5.65
Over 5.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	11.4%	0.68×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	5.4%	7.7%	5.8%	1.32×	12.95

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.9%	97.2%	95.3%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.6%	92.4%	87.2%	1.06×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	79.5%	75.9%	71.4%	1.06×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	72.6%	72.4%	77.8%	0.93×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	56.9%	55.8%	45.9%	1.22×	1.79
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	43.1%	44.2%	54.1%	0.82×	2.26
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	27.4%	27.6%	22.2%	1.24×	3.62
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	20.5%	24.1%	28.6%	0.84×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.4%	7.6%	12.8%	0.60×	13.15
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.1%	2.8%	4.7%	0.60×	35.57

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.6%	89.1%	84.6%	1.05×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.9%	71.6%	76.9%	0.93×	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.5%	63.2%	58.5%	1.08×	1.58
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.5%	36.8%	41.5%	0.89×	2.72
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.1%	28.4%	23.1%	1.23×	3.52
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.4%	10.9%	15.4%	0.71×	9.18

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.1%	83.2%	84.7%	0.98×	1.20
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.0%	79.1%	72.9%	1.09×	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	52.0%	53.0%	44.3%	1.20×	1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.0%	47.0%	55.7%	0.84×	2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.0%	20.9%	27.1%	0.77×	4.80
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.9%	16.8%	15.3%	1.10×	5.94

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV not to score in both halves	82.2%	84.3%	72.2%	1.17×	1.19
Union Berlin not to score in both halves	64.9%	63.7%	64.1%	0.99×	1.57
Union Berlin to score in both halves	35.1%	36.3%	35.9%	1.01×	2.76
Hamburger SV to score in both halves	17.8%	15.7%	27.8%	0.56×	6.36

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.9%	58.6%	59.5%	0.99×	1.71
Only Union Berlin scores	27.9%	26.0%	19.9%	1.31×	3.84
Only Hamburger SV scores	10.8%	11.0%	15.1%	0.73×	9.07
Neither team scores	5.4%	7.1%	5.8%	1.22×	14.06

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.0%	22.6%	19.4%	1.16×	4.43
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	19.0%	1.19×	4.43
Exactly 4 goals	16.3%	17.5%	21.7%	0.81×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	15.7%	17.5%	12.3%	1.42×	5.73
Exactly 5 goals	9.5%	7.6%	11.2%	0.68×	13.13
6 or more goals	7.6%	7.6%	11.4%	0.67×	13.14
Exactly 0 goals	5.4%	7.6%	5.8%	1.31×	13.14

Total goals 1st half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 1st half	35.4%	37.3%	35.6%	1.05×	2.68
No goals in 1st half	27.1%	28.5%	23.1%	1.23×	3.51
2 goals in 1st half	23.1%	21.5%	26.2%	0.82×	4.66
3+ goals in 1st half	14.4%	10.8%	15.4%	0.70×	9.26

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.0%	45.3%	55.7%	0.81×	2.21
1 goal in 2nd half	32.1%	33.8%	29.2%	1.16×	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	19.9%	16.5%	15.3%	1.08×	6.05

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV not to win both halves	95.5%	97.1%	90.9%	1.07×	1.03
Union Berlin not to win both halves	82.3%	83.8%	84.0%	1.00×	1.19
Union Berlin to win both halves	17.7%	16.2%	16.0%	1.01×	6.17
Hamburger SV to win both halves	4.5%	2.9%	9.1%	0.31×	34.98

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin to win either half	66.8%	67.7%	58.1%	1.16×	1.48
Hamburger SV to win neither half	62.0%	65.1%	50.6%	1.29×	1.54
Hamburger SV to win either half	38.0%	34.9%	49.4%	0.71×	2.86
Union Berlin to win neither half	33.2%	32.3%	41.9%	0.77×	3.09

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hamburger SV not to win to nil	89.2%	88.1%	84.9%	1.04×	1.14
Union Berlin not to win to nil	72.1%	75.3%	80.1%	0.94×	1.33
Union Berlin to win to nil	27.9%	24.7%	19.9%	1.24×	4.05
Hamburger SV to win to nil	10.8%	11.9%	15.1%	0.79×	8.42

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Union Berlin by 1	23.5%	24.1%	17.6%	1.37×	4.15
Draw	23.0%	24.1%	24.7%	0.98×	4.15
Union Berlin by 2	16.6%	17.0%	12.7%	1.34×	5.87
Hamburger SV by 1	14.2%	11.8%	16.7%	0.70×	8.50
Union Berlin by 3+	14.1%	11.8%	12.0%	0.98×	8.50
Hamburger SV by 2	6.1%	7.2%	9.9%	0.73×	13.91
Hamburger SV by 3+	2.5%	2.7%	7.2%	0.38×	36.83